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mholmstrom

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  • Update: NXP Semiconductors Reports Strong Q3 '14 Earnings [View article]
    Appreciate your articles on NXP, can use all the exposure it can get.

    Only thing I would add is Analyst Day November 5th where they should give long term growth projections, then they present at numerous conferences in the following month. I think that could definitely be an eye opening presentation and depending on long term guidance could prompt for price target hikes.
    Oct 24, 2014. 02:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Doing The Math Again On Apple Pay [View article]
    Beat me to the above, really the foundation of your article should have double checked that math.

    One reason I think ApplePay will succeed is it is both online and brick/motor purchases in addition to comments made in this article. It makes me wonder if they will get a piece from every itunes purchase as well.
    Sep 17, 2014. 05:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Cheesecake Factory Is A Buy [View article]
    No mention of higher input costs? With labor and dairy/beef costs increasing? Seems to be the major concern here with flatish comps, they will not be able to offset/meet expectations. I am short going into earnings, short term play only for me.
    Jul 14, 2014. 01:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Crucial Q4 HALO Earnings Report Morsels You Need To Know- The Rest Was Boiler Plate [View instapost]
    Just to correct my margin comment. Reading the 10-K my product margin assumption was wrong. They indicated still some zero cost inventory for Herceptin SC flowed through. They expect COGS to be 83% of the API so 17% margin on product + 5% lagging royalty. About what I was originally expecting.
    Feb 28, 2014. 05:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Crucial Q4 HALO Earnings Report Morsels You Need To Know- The Rest Was Boiler Plate [View instapost]
    I have to agree Pentech in parts.

    Main issue is US system that practitioners make tons of $ in the US from IV herceptin and mabthera. Why would they reduce the time to fractions since they would have to get 20 times more clients in to make up the revenue? Plus Roche isn't in a hurry until US Patents expire, they make less money paying HALO. Unless they feel it is a competitive advantage or Herceptin gets threaten by competition they have little drive to push change.

    Everything is pushed to the consumer so they are the one's that get screwed not only with time but $ as well since practitioners charge tons more for Herceptin IV admin vs. SC.

    Welcome to the good ol US medical system. At least other EU countries value patients time and efficiencies more than the US. Unless systematic change in philosophy I don't see any Roche SC products until patent expires, they have made this clear too. Insurance companies and Consumers pushing Roche on SC in the US is the only hope.
    Feb 28, 2014. 01:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Crucial Q4 HALO Earnings Report Morsels You Need To Know- The Rest Was Boiler Plate [View instapost]
    My thoughts:
    In the who cares but interesting, Slightly lower than expected revenue. While somewhat expected with higher than expected product sales in Q3 filling up inventory for Herceptin SC probably just timing issue. I expect a beat if not Q1, definitely Q2 will be a big beat looking at analyst estimates. Will have to fill Mabthera product pipeline and hopefully US Hyqvia as well. Plus royalties kick in starting this Q (will be very small at first, much less than product revenue.

    Product margins. This is an interesting surprise to me on margins getting on rHuPH20 from partnerships. So per Ramsey last Q herceptin SC product revenue cost will start flowing through COGS. So rough estimate if you look at previous data, Hylenex product margins are in the mid 50’s. So if you remove $4M from product revenue and $1.3M from COGS (note $1M hylenex revenue adjustment was positive so COGS based on $3M sales). That leaves other product revenue close to 60% margin. There could be some other non approved product revenue, but I received a response from Schond confirming majority of product revenue is approved products and costs are now coming through COGS for Herceptin. They will be getting 5% royalties plus a little less than 60% ish margin on product revenues going forward on Roche/Baxter partnerships.

    Felt all the talk about next target of Pegph20 kind of status quo. They will likely choose Breast (or prostate), I would rather a partner on the secondary one to reduce risk and get more cash to help fund. Could speed it along too if they go with partner.
    Phase II PegPH20- status quo. Hoping for further insight on enrollment, maybe next Q. As expected with trial design, won’t be a look along the way. Will have to wait for 8-12 mo (depending on OFS/data) post enrollment for any data. Probably best case 2015 ASCO. I honestly think the trial could end early given how well Phase 1B went. I want to see that Phase 1B final data re-published, likely ASCO 2014?

    Very disappointed on questions asked, not sure if easy on Torley since new, but felt they should have pushed more questions on Insulin pump, especially asking about mfg ramp up plans and progress. I get they are early regarding label discussions, but have heard they are ramping in preparation. I would have liked to known if that is in the cash burn guidance, additional costs on ramp up. It would sense confidence level if they are ramping.

    Consistent 1- very happy on explanation of change of time point. Not data related, FDA prefers to measure HbA1C 6 months vs. 4 months that explains data release delay likely mid-late March now vs. Jan I was expecting.
    HTI- Always felt Frost wanted this partnered months ago which may have not required them to raise $$. I feel Helen think differently, and wanted more flexibility with partnerships/opportuni... Saying they are planning to file US IND with or without partner gives more leverage. More progress they make without partnership, more $$ they will get. Even stating they are willing to go alone gives some leverage.

    Not that I am too high on Ramsey, but glad he is presenting at Cohen vs. Torley. I think more financial questions and the margin piece may be a nice surprise on clarification. Torley doesn’t seem to ra ra like Frost, which I am very happy with. I felt Frost promised a little too much and “pumped” a little too much. Think Torley straight shooter non promotional fact based answers. Maybe she could work a little on cheerleading though.

    Positive on the horizon (and people are selling!?!? Cmon!!):
    -2 trial results released in March 2014. Insulin pump could have huge impact as soon as next year. HTI will pave way for partnership or have flexibility to start process on own since have cash.
    -Mabthera SC approval March/April 2014-marketing launch/milestone payment May/June 2014.
    -FDA decision to Hyqvia May/June 2014, marketing Aug/Sept with milestone payment
    -Likely final Phase 1B pegph20 data presented at ASCO 2014
    -Q2 conference call likely much better clarification on path forward on Insulin label pathway from FDA
    -Fully enrollment of pegph20 trial July-Sept2014 (I think it will be early full enrollment due to design)
    -Revenue beat due to royalty ramp and product sales on launches in Q2. There is no or very little revenue ramp in analyst estimates.
    -PFE second target announced.

    Risks
    -FDA denies HyQvia
    -Poor data from HTI or Consistent 1
    -I don’t consider low sales from Mabthera/Herceptin a risk, already priced in given analyst estimates.
    Feb 28, 2014. 12:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NXP Semiconductors Has Delivered 25% Per Year Over The Last 3 Years [View article]
    I believe Gemalto and NXP signed licensing agreement in 2010? I know they shifted NFC servicing at that time, I believe EMV chips are licences from NXP. This is all from memory but I am sure you could dig up in some old annual reports if you are looking for specifics.
    Feb 17, 2014. 02:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NXP Semiconductors Has Delivered 25% Per Year Over The Last 3 Years [View article]
    NXPI indicated in last Q4 CC they thought they had 70% wordwide share in EMV. It is in opening statement. There was also a QA about it saying that even if share dropped (which they don't think) it is still huge opportunity, they quantified US market opp as 1.5B cards in the next few years.
    Feb 17, 2014. 01:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wacky Wednesday: $100 Oil Equals No Inflation, Says Bernanke [View article]
    Stocknerd that is hilarious, you think Phil is a conservative!! Obviously you haven't been a follower of him!!

    I am a mild conservative and read Phil daily, we have a lot in common and a lot of things we don't, but I enjoy another perspective on numerous topics and it helps to make some money along the way.

    I know it is shocking but the rest of the nation outside of Washington can actually have things in common regardless of political offiliation, it would be nice one of these years to not label people into two lump categories of ideals even though our lovely government acts that way.
    Mar 2, 2011. 01:53 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Data Center Company Stocks Mixed After Earnings Reports [View article]
    Wow nice research, DLR released in the morning.....

    They were up like 3% after they released in the morning.

    May want to correct that....
    Feb 23, 2011. 01:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fiscally Irresponsible Friday: Trading for Magic Beans [View article]
    Phil, I enjoy reading your articles for another perspective on the market. However I think you should stick to day trading and option trading you are good at and stop with you political and economic commentry.

    You were bearish in April of 2009 and said "this is not what a recovery looks like".

    Your class warfare is a little insane, where is your capitalism spirit? One issue with your rational is thinking that "rich" people are not paying their "share of taxes". Those reporting adjusted gross income of more than $250,000 to the IRS are projected to make up 2 percent of households. Those folks will earn 24.1 percent of all income, and pay 43.6 percent of all personal federal income taxes.

    Yes, the US is in terrible shape financially, however extending over $250K tax cuts is not the problem. Medicare, Social Security, Defense are the problem.

    Do rich people stick money under their mattresses? No they invest in treasuries, equities, businesses, consume products.

    Stick to the short term option trades, people who have read you a long time understand your political position and that you are NOT an economist.
    Dec 17, 2010. 01:39 PM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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