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rhyse12

rhyse12
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  • Tesla: The Short Of The Decade? [View article]
    @Altimas: Tesla's mission?
    The more people that crowd into the field, the greater the competition for the same dollar. That isn't good for the stock.
    MY MISSION is to make money. I could care less about the "Tesla mission".
    This is car company, not a church. It is an investment.
    Aug 19 12:44 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 356 August 7 '14: Changed Loan, IP-Secured MDA; David DiGiacinto Appointed Chairman And CEO; Share Reverse Split And Authorized Share Reduction Approved [View instapost]
    "Since many promoters played games with their definition of smart, the SEC decided to simply use rich as a bright line standard. They're just trying to protect people from themselves."

    I know John, just venting frustration at a silly line in the sand based on wealth.. it is a bad rule, often worse then no rule.
    Aug 11 02:10 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Order Backlog And Why It Is Worth More Than Porsche [View article]
    Thats all very nice technical stuff. When the average family of 4 makes about $51,000 a year in the United States(cnnmoney), your gonna need a lot more then an $80,000 car to get it done. You see folks dropping $40,000 out the door on this new not yet produced baby- basically their entire annual income. When a cheaper product (by $15,000) with a long glorious track record endorsed by the same sources that extol the Tesla virtues is available?

    That's nice, but I don't think realistic...the green in your pocket outweighs the green on your driveway... Cost triumphs...
    Aug 8 01:45 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Order Backlog And Why It Is Worth More Than Porsche [View article]
    Wait- unknown delivery dates.. The thing-ama-gig has a date or it doesn't? Don't you make an assumption in your charting. Pick a spot. If your gonna call it an unknown delivery date, then have the ethics to say it " has an unknown delivery date" throughout your presentation, and leave it out of assumptions. Writing in one spot, an unknown delivery date- then just plain old guessing when it suits your purposes to make a pretty trend line is balderdash.

    Now, is that $220 million backlog because demand is so high, or because the company is "starving" domestic demand. You can't trumpet a backlog while the factory is shutdown, the manufacturer is intentionally "starving" local demand while complaining about supply choke points, and the say look at our backlog as a good thing. That is calling it a "natural saltwater pool" while the decks are awash on the Titanic. You keep fence hopping, more the your wallet is gonna get hurt.

    Tesla needs to report and act like a major auto, and actually have sale figures beyond a niche product, before it is anything more then "a hot fad".

    Don't blame me, it is just GAAP math.
    Aug 8 01:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Order Backlog And Why It Is Worth More Than Porsche [View article]
    I think your trying to have it both ways.

    If Musk stated he wouldn't sell into a China city, without a Tesla center in that city, then something is clearly wrong there. You can't set a standard like that, and then back away from it. These cars are so good, they don't need a service center? This problem existed a long time ago in the States, and was eventually resolved by opening more service centers. Would the engineering genius wouldn't repeat the same mistake? Bollocks up the roll out by not having service centers in the local city to correct minor problems. I find that a huge suspension of disbelief when you consider a media savvy business man like Musk.

    If Tesla is " starving " US supply to open other markets, then why is it offering business leasing while not delivering vehicles to folks who have put down money. How is that legal, who would stand for it?

    No worries, I paid months ago, I can wait a little longer for some other guy to get a lease before I get the one I pre-ordered to own? You think that happens in the United States, to folks dropping $80k plus on a car.

    Tesla continues to play " hide and seek" games with production, demand and delivery numbers. From delayed reporting, non sequential VIN numbers, to " their on a boat" answers. They show a profit on non-GAAP accounting, but increasing losses according to GAAP reporting. Apples to apples, they are bleeding cash. Yet folks insist on apples to oranges.

    The growth ratio is comical considering Tesla, call it exploding froth if you desire, still can't sniff annual production numbers of Porsche.

    If I have $1 dollar to my name, and find another, I have doubled my wealth. But that sure doesn't make me wealthy.

    25,000 units doesn't have many people shaking. Does Tesla even rate 1% of all new vehicles sold in the US- never mind worldwide. No, then your a niche product. At 5% you a niche product. Don't blame me, welcome to GAAP based comparisons.

    Yet folks here fantasize about buyouts, mergers and equality with established automakers despite Tesla production numbers still short of 50,000 units in it's lifetime. Optimism is nice, but you folks are willing to ignore current numbers while fantasizing about absurdities in 6 years...
    Aug 8 01:24 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 356 August 7 '14: Changed Loan, IP-Secured MDA; David DiGiacinto Appointed Chairman And CEO; Share Reverse Split And Authorized Share Reduction Approved [View instapost]
    The entire "accredited investor" thing enrages to a point where I piss blood. This is not a shot at any individual or company.

    But it is pure "gaming the market" tripe that has cost me a ton of money- because my green is just as green, I just don't have enough of it because I spend it on other things. Not just e-power, but other investments. This is investing in companies- not a poker game with a set "buy in". Who sets the accredited investor limits? Wait, I gotta pee again.
    A little less effort on determine who can play in the game, a little more time on keeping the game honest.

    I would love to own a chunk of E-Power. Since I can't I collected another large block of AXPW while it touched single digits.

    Sorry- the whole accredited investor thing makes me insane.
    Aug 7 04:29 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors higher after profit beat and delivery guidance [View news story]
    @ banker..
    Making clients who already put a deposit on the car, wait for the cars so you can sell some to Avis.. If your good with that - then your good with that.
    I would extremely unhappy.

    If you think Avis is paying top dollar for the car, more power to you.I don't know what kind of power, but enjoy it.

    Tesla is making its clients wait, so it can sell discounted cars to Avis. That is how the math adds up.

    Enjoy your evening.
    Aug 2 02:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors higher after profit beat and delivery guidance [View news story]
    One:Rental car companies don't pay sticker, they pay a vig off sticker.
    Second: Do you see rental car companies lining their lots with $80,000 vehicles? The rates needed to make any money back on that vehicle is insane.
    Third: OEM's push standard models to these rental outfits to lower unit cost, when they are in the process of making hundreds of thousands of these units/vehicles.

    Your stretching the boundaries of reality thinking pushing $80,000 vehicles to AVIS is somehow a positive thing. You dump surplus on the rentals. Why does Tesla have surplus?
    Aug 1 12:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors higher after profit beat and delivery guidance [View news story]
    Nope. It is excellent management.

    But there are only so many dollars, unless your using GAAP- in which case there are no dollars, to go around. I prefer to use GAAP, Tesla prefers to use non-GAAP. Non-GAAP is the technical term for creative accounting. How creative? No idea. No idea when investing is a bad thing.

    Enjoy the car. I have driven one, and found it to be an excellent vehicle.
    Aug 1 01:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors higher after profit beat and delivery guidance [View news story]
    IF you use non-GAAP numbers, they killed it. improving margins, positive revenue streams.

    IF you use GAAP numbers, $0.50 loss per share. Increasing losses, decreasing revenue.

    BE very careful when non-GAAP numbers show a different story from GAAP numbers. "But this time it is different."
    Aug 1 01:49 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors higher after profit beat and delivery guidance [View news story]
    so if there are a ton of people waiting for their model S, why are they being pushed off to rental car companies?

    The problem, from my perspective, is you can't play it both ways...

    You can't say there is unfulfilled demand, while moving cars to rental companies... Please don't write the rental companies are paying top dollar for the privilege of having these cars in stock, unless your gonna follow up with "they need GPS so the driver won't drive on the edge of the flat Earth."

    I misunderstood the 100,000 unit comment. Thanks for the clarity. But again, cranking out 50,000 units a year is the best the UPGRADED line can do. Where are these cars being built to provide units to sell. More capital investment to build more lines? I hadn't realized Tesla was awash in cash with a new factory, superchargers, and extra battery armor on their plate.

    Which takes me full circle. if there is unfulfilled demand, why are Tesla products showing up in rental car lots? "We can't build them fast enough for our customers who dropped deposits months ago, but lets send a few over to Avis and Hertz? come on man...
    Aug 1 01:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 354 July 31 '14: David DiGiacinto Appointed Chairman And CEO; Share Reverse Split And Authorized Share Reduction Approved; Q1 '1 CC Transcript & MP3 Available [View instapost]
    The best thing AXPW could do is switch to Non-GAAP accounting. Only there can a $0.50 share loss be called an $0.11 profit. AXPW wouldn't even have to announce sales number, just comment " demand won't be a problem."

    I will stick with a little battery company that has a major railroad giving " a do's and don'ts " class on operating electric engines....

    Maybe we can sell them to China too.
    Jul 31 07:53 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors higher after profit beat and delivery guidance [View news story]
    Top of the shareholder letter states 35,000 units expected production in 2014.
    Getting 100,000 units in 2015, a production triple, should be easy( not really, but it will be fun to watch).

    Even more so with a production line upgraded in Q3 to roll 1,000 units a week in Q4 2014. Which leaves them 48,000 units shy per annum unless Tesla finds a way to increase line production from 1,000 to 2,000 units a week, without shutting down the line. (that will be even more fun to watch).

    The math is very fuzzy. But it always has been very fuzzy on this stock.
    Most would call it a warning sign.
    Jul 31 07:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors higher after profit beat and delivery guidance [View news story]
    GAAP reported a loss of $0.50 share.
    Non-GAAP showed a profit of $0.11 share.

    That is a large gap.
    Using GAAP, fixed expenses rose much faster then Non-GAAP. That probably isn't good news because of the capital needed to find the Gigafactory.


    The other interesting points from a fast skim were shutting down production to increase automation( very nice for improving the both margins and unit quality ) so that Q4 production will be 1,000 units per week after improvements. My confusion is simple. 1,000 units a week in Q4 of 2014 is a massive shortfall to delivering 100,000 units in 2015.. By about 48,000 units. Where are those extra 48,000 units coming from next year. How is that gap gonna close.

    Selling to auto leasing firms. Why do that if you still have folks waiting on their vehicles? Why would I wait an extra few weeks to get my car so you could spin a few off to a rental agency.

    Giga fun:

    No site has been chosen, but some presite work is happening in Nevada.. A site will be selected " in a few months".. That means near end of Q4 for a selected site. Still need to swing shovels, turn screws, and outfit the factory. That will happen in 1 year to have the plant up and running for q1 2016.

    That is a whole lot of cats to herd in a very short time. Panasonic is upping production, which is good for Tesla. At what price per unit..

    This Thomas still has a ton of doubts...
    Jul 31 07:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Tesla Keep Sticking It To Doubters? [View article]
    actually dave, I download the chart every month, and attached the headlines of all the articles written about the stock for that current month. I have a 1 page cover on why i bought the stock, and my expectations on the purchase date.
    It is probably the closest i can come for using this stock as a teaching tool for my kids. I also have a few SINGLE SHARE positions(similar setups) in other industries, like CVS, Ford(post bailout), Diana Shipping, Citi, YZC, Molycorp, HCBK, Vale, GE, Aqua America, Disney. Many were purchased when there was blood on the streets.
    Just figured it would be a great teaching tool about managing money in good times and bad times.
    Jul 31 12:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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