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  • The Case for High Sulfur Coal Stocks (ARLP, BTU, CNX, FCL, MEE) [View article]
    Notes from the Ira Sohn dinner in May 2007 on coal stocks. The notes were taken in real time, and may contain transcription errors:

    <blockquote>
    <b> Wilbur Ross, Jr. - WL Ross &amp; Co.</b>

    - 33% decline in the price of coal in 7 months.
    - Sudden unanticipated drop in demand in early 2006 – mild weather.
    - Exacerbated by marginally cheaper Nat Gas.
    - Utility industry inventories grew while production costs grew.
    - Difficult geological conditions increased safety measures.
    - Market coming back into balance.
    - Lower production and improving utility demand.
    - EIA forecasting 1.4% rise in demand production declining by 3% in 2007.
    - Long Term futures market is trending higher.
    - Build out of scrubbers by eastern utilities favor Appalachian coal over Powder River basin.
    - Industry consolidation.
    - EIA forecasting 41% growth of electricity use by 2030, Coals portion will increase from 50 to 57%.
    - For nuclear to sustain its 20% market share 35-40 new nuclear plants would need to be built.
    - Electric utility demand has only decreased 3 times in the 35 (?)years
    - Coal very cost competitive.

    Coal powered electric plants to be built in the next few years:
    2007-3
    2008-5
    2009-25
    2010-15

    <blockquote>
    Jul 20 07:27 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
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