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heywally

heywally
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  • Natural Gas Climbs Back Up To $4 - Will It Remain There? [View article]
    I always appreciate your analysis, Lior. For me though, even armed with a boatload of facts, so much of the near-term price of NG comes down to the weather that my best method of trading it has always been to scale in long after weakness, in smallish chunks, then scaling out (selling) into strength. And, I always keep the total long inventory small enough to not have it take any years off of my life when price inevitably continues down, going against me. But, you can make some small but nice and steady gains that way, because the price does move so much.

    I embrace my unknowingness of this volatile commodity.
    Sep 2 09:04 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed report depresses biotechs [View news story]
    And there is a big difference between small cap biotechs and the top weighted bios in the IBB index. But I don't expect Janet to be breaking that down .... :0
    Jul 15 02:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yellen warns on small cap and momo sector valuations [View news story]
    Not in IBB right now but the Fed Chief is commenting on market valuations now?

    Probably okay though as some volatility is my cup of tea, as I buy dips conservatively. Thanks Janet.
    Jul 15 12:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • High prices have small-cap fund manager in cash [View news story]
    "but missing out on the bull market of the last three years thanks to his large cash holdings.:"

    Yes, seemingly expensive but if you missed out on the last 3 years because of a "cash position", then nothing you do or say here is predictive in the least, no matter what happens.

    Any money manager who is ever 100% cash -- though this piece doesn't say he is -- is going to underperform the market longer term.
    Jul 7 01:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy The Rumor, Sell The News On Apple's New Watch [View article]
    We don't know what the capabilities of the iWatch are yet.

    Nonetheless, most of the shorter term future expectations for the stock are because of the iPhone 6 release.
    Jul 2 10:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF: An Offensive Defense Buy In This Weak Market [View article]
    Thanks; I've liked IBB for quite a while now but haven't traded it recently. It is generally a very nice dip buying vehicle.

    However, its defensive characteristics were questionable during that last selloff we had as it sold off pretty heavily from its top. A less volatile medical ETF is XLV, also heavily weighted with health care bellwethers.
    Jun 6 02:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • At The Right Price, Apple, Amazon, And Google All Offer Strong Long-Term Value For Investors [View article]
    QQQ/TQQQ on the dips (selling on the rips) effectively gives you a good chunk of these guys, these are all bellwether companies and AMZN has their tentacles in everything, to support the overvaluation. I have no clue on how rocky the road will be.

    And re GOOG, I dreamt I was driving around in my smart car though some big monster truck was tailgating me.
    Jun 1 09:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ralph Acampora has a "sick feeling" [View news story]
    Could this be right? Yes.

    Is it predictive? No.

    Does it have value? No.

    From Sept. 2013

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    May 16 11:16 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks set to add to yesterday's losses [View news story]
    "Stocks set to add to yesterday's losses"

    Is this a prediction for the entirety of the day?
    May 16 08:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tepper Hedge Fund Trade: Long Apple, Short Russell 2000 [View article]
    That's it, it's that simple? And were I that steadfastly nervous, I wouldn't be 60% in equity (though a much bigger deal for him to get out more than that) and, why bother with the long AAPL part of a pairs trade .... just do the R2K short.

    BTW, in his "talk" he also said he wouldn't be short. One thing for sure - the R2K is the last place you want to be during a rally but it has historically been a great bang-for-buck way to slowly scale in to weakness.
    May 15 06:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More pain ahead for small-caps, Credit Suisse says [View news story]
    FYI - IJR is one of the commission-free ETF's available at TDAmeritrade. I like that one too ....
    May 12 11:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More pain ahead for small-caps, Credit Suisse says [View news story]
    Shorting not my game but another reason to use TZA is that you can put less cash at risk (cost effective.)
    May 12 11:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More pain ahead for small-caps, Credit Suisse says [View news story]
    The R2K index could well take more of a plunge but in the long run, it has outperformed both the SPY and DIA ETF's, though not the QQQ (thanks largely to AAPL.) It also did not crash out much more than the other indexes during the meltdown years of 2008 - 2010.

    And, since it moves much more than these other indexes, it is the perfect buy-the-dip vehicle, since you can get away with putting less cash-at-risk (you might want to use TNA instead of IWM) into it - more bang for buck.

    In other words, historically, buy the dip in very small scales (up to some conservative total and maybe avoiding buys during the more elevator plunge type of selling) during weakness like this and scale out into the inevitable strength later. That is what usually works. But, if you want to trade anomalies and fight all of the forces that have vested interests in keeping the markets stable .....

    Shorting the R2K successfully involves much more nimble and short term action.

    Even though Credit Suisse has a crystal ball.
    May 10 09:29 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bearish On The Market? Russell 2000 Better Short Than S&P 500 [View article]
    Thanks bobdark, some good points. Based on my experience and no longer wanting to give up any of my capital to stop losses (I tend to manage risk with very conservative position sizes and scaling in and out via the major 3X indexes (to keep cash-at-risk smaller, not for the leverage per se)), shorting has only worked well for me on a day trading basis via the futures (though I would trail a stop if it really went down in my favor) and only when it looks like the elevator cable has clearly snapped. That requires more screen time than I like.

    One thing with a short bias though, you have some really solid black swan protection.
    May 9 05:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bearish On The Market? Russell 2000 Better Short Than S&P 500 [View article]
    The R2K is always more "overvalued" than the other indexes but it has also outperformed in the longer run. It has definitely been underperforming "lately."
    Plus, you have some negative seasonality -- which didn't work last year -- on your side.

    Given that the market goes up more often than it goes down, most people are better off just going to cash, rather than outright shorting, if they think that the market is going to dive. They can still profit later on the long side, after the selling subsides and the dust settles, when bargains emerge.

    And if they are wrong -- the R2K is where you do not want to be short, then -- , they will only lose opportunity, not actual capital.
    May 6 08:50 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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