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heywally

heywally
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  • What Just Happened In The U.S. Treasury Market? And Does Bill Gross Have A Crystal Ball? [View article]
    Bill Gross does have a crystal ball but it's all scratched and dirty and murky and you can't really see anything in it except that he says that he does because he needs the publicity for his funds and media output. And then there are the piggyback SA articles, looking for page hits/advertising revenue. Got me.

    Or at least, that's what I have noticed.
    May 8, 2015. 09:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Street Applauds Disastrous Financial Results [View article]
    J - yes, but in the short run, he can have quite an impact. Longer term, a non-factor. I remember him from the old days, when he was actually the anti-media guy. HA!
    Apr 16, 2015. 08:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Street Applauds Disastrous Financial Results [View article]
    I have rarely traded NFLX but of course, have always been amazed at its stock performance, which is largely due to the fact that so many people use it (like AMZN.) Me, after a few rounds of subscribing to streaming, We realized that once we got past the documentaries we wanted to watch, the content was pretty crappy. Lot's of people apparently don't agree with that and they are still signing people up, around the world. I use the DVD/Blu Ray rental service.

    You cannot short a stock like this until after it really starts to crack, if you are going to short term trade it; you might be okay if you're doing a smallish longer term short - sell/hold. Their moat doesn't seem wide -- they are Vs. APPL, AMZN, HBO NOW and more to follow, direct streaming subscriptions. The DVD rental business will probably go away at some point. And you do have the fundamental picture with them that you've outlined. But keep in mind also, that Cramer is championing the stock right now. :)
    Apr 16, 2015. 08:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Priced To Imperfection: Natural Gas Undervalued And Poised To Rally [View article]
    It's "funny"; I have a buy-the-dip/sell the rip in very small scales strategy (so small that I must just be trying to pay my utility bills with it) via UGAZ and I'm currently holding 300 shares from $2.48 and am down $172. But, I haven't added the next 300 shares yet and I'm not sure what I'm waiting for. And yes, I've read all of the bearish production and storage slants ... anyway, thanks.
    Apr 13, 2015. 07:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Plan To Rethink Television [View article]
    I like your post and think there's plenty of opportunities for AAPL, a very powerful company now, to make money outside of the iPhone (which they are currently over-leveraged to IMO, as the sales growth will ebb.) Don't agree about the luxury TV though ..... yes, I believe their stock is "undervalued" but, it has had a big run up for such a large company and is over-owned. It is just resting.
    Mar 21, 2015. 11:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Plan To Rethink Television [View article]
    We cut the cable cord for good last year and have enough stuff to watch now where we aren't going back unless they offered absolute a la carte packages.

    I'm 62 and there are only a handful of cable channels that interest us, none of them "reality" based except for HGTV and some stuff on PBS. I don't need to watch the Billy-Bob survivalist show or any of the horrifying "wives" ones, though there are a few of the Crime shows (Bill Curtis Cold Case for one, but too depressing) we've watched. So, $30 for an Apple mini-cable package with a bunch of content I don't want probably won't fly for me. We don't want to spend more than a total of $50 for all content.

    Network TV - mostly don't care about at all at this point.

    Movies - Netflix streaming doesn't have enough good content so we don't have that anymore; we still use them for DVD rentals but they may get out of that. We rent movies from the library too and I have a collection. I might pay TCM a monthly charge for a streaming version of their channel. We might buy the HBO package.

    Sports - I have to have my MLB.tv but have dumped the NFL after 50+ years or so. There are also other sports I can catch on the various ESPN channels, depending on what we end up with.

    Don't watch any of this stuff on my "phone" and never will.

    Fun watching this evolution unfold .....
    Mar 21, 2015. 09:11 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greek talks likely to dominate EU summit [View news story]
    Based on the recent articles on Greece's military and political importance to the EU and also, of Russia's "courting" them, I don't believe that the EU can afford to have Greece leave. So it's much more interesting than all of Greece's debt.
    Mar 19, 2015. 08:20 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The High Volatility Of UNG Continues [View article]
    Obviously, there is some nuance involved with my approach. You need to be holding at least some Nat Gas if it takes off (I trade it small) and, you need to avoid buying it at all, during times where it is in free fall.
    Mar 18, 2015. 06:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The High Volatility Of UNG Continues [View article]
    Well that's just it. I don't try and make calls at all because I think that's counterproductive to using the volatility of NG to make money. Instead, I scale in long (via UGAZ to keep my cash-at-risk low), very slowly after weakness, at prices where it "seems" to be done going down. "Later on", I scale out into strength. I'm not ashamed to take a bunch of $75 profits but sometimes it will take off to the upside and I will keep the stops further back, raising them more slowly. The key for me with NG is keeping it small, only trading from the long side, chipping away, and really, only trying to pay our utility bill. :)

    Trading the NG futures is too hair-raising for me and eliminates the safety of scaling in after weakness. Unless you have a lot of money.

    No, I can't quantify this method but I believe it usually beats trying to attach trading to expert Nat Gas fundamental analysis.

    Edit: One other thing about trading EGAZ long only; I believe that Nat Gas gives you a certain amount of black swan protection.
    Mar 18, 2015. 05:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The High Volatility Of UNG Continues [View article]
    What usually works, is buying a nat gas ETF (I usually use UGAZ, to minimize cash-at-risk and keep the total position small) after dips, in scales, and just hanging on, scaling out into strength, using NG as a power plant to generate cash from the volatility. The trick is identifying and not buying "during" the more extreme selling.
    Mar 18, 2015. 08:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time To Short Apple? [View article]
    However, the story used the cheap headline hook device of "Is It Time to Short Apple?" Of course, like Doug Kass's use of AAPL, there is high publicity value in just dropping the name.
    Feb 21, 2015. 01:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Russian Equities Are Incredibly Cheap Right Now [View article]
    I'm not an ultra-patriot but I don't want to put any money into what that country is doing, regardless of how much bounce potential there is. And just from a practical viewpoint, they are far too leveraged to oil.
    Jan 18, 2015. 10:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences: Buy On The Drop? [View article]
    Okay, officially removing GILD from my alerts list. So many articles because this is what is grabbing page hits.

    Personally, I can find other stocks/indexes that are not complex battlegrounds, to make money with. GL.
    Dec 23, 2014. 07:42 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ho Ho Harvoni: Gilead Sciences Is A Gift That Should Be Under Every Investor's Tree. [View article]
    "1. Ironically, my biggest concern about GILD going forward is the large amount of bullish articles that have been published--as you pointed out! I almost mentioned it in my article, but it was already getting too verbose for my tastes."

    I've been wondering about that lately, though I normally only trade IBB on weakness, seeking to avoid company specific risk. In GILD's case obviously, it is over-reliance on profits from one drug. IBB taking the requisite hit this morning because of the Express Scripts decision which, in the case of pricing, is the way it should be.

    I also guess that the recent flurry of articles, none of which I actually read, are at least partly an attempt to grab page hits -- see AAPL -- because GILD is "popular."
    Dec 22, 2014. 09:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences: First Oncology Drug Strengthens War Chest [View article]
    Thanks for this detailed analysis. And it underscores my general philosophy with biotech; figuring out which individual companies are going to do well in the future is extremely complex and therefore, very difficult to do consistently in the long run. And so, aside from fishing for the occasional 10-bagger, with extremely small positions, I will stick to a core position in the IBB ETF, while trading around it via buying weakness/selling strength in it, in small chunks, in the IRA.
    Dec 16, 2014. 12:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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