Mr WaveTheory

YouTube and Sequoia Go Long Google Stock

Below are the Google (Nasdasq GOOG)/ Youtube comments from Wall Street Analysts. All of the firms below make markets in Google stock and/or options, so take their advice with a grain - make that 2 grains - of salt.

While it is counter to Google's general preference to build rather than buy, and the company already has a similar offering in Google Video, we believe Google recognizes the value of YouTube's leadership position and its strong brand name in the fast-growing video space. … By owning YouTube, Google may be able to bring content holders to the negotiating table earlier and in a more strategic way than otherwise might be possible.
--Douglas Anmuth at Lehman Brothers, who has an "overweight" rating and $530 price target
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<strong>Read More Analyst comments on Google Deal</strong>

Google's YouTube Acquisition May Just Work

I wrote that Google should buy YouTube and how Mark Cuban was wrong about YouTube. My argument is strictly based on valuation of comparable companies in the space - that is a company like YouTube is more similar to Comcast than it is to WPP. In defense of Mark Cuban, I do want to mention that Mark is right about one thing. All of this is being made possible my magical Google stock which is building in very aggressive assumptions about its growth trajectory. Depending on whose numbers you believe at any given them, Google would have to grow 70-90% annually to justify its current valuations. That is a crazy assumption that investors are making. However, if everyone is crazy, some of us are less crazy than others for doing crazy things. Google, Larry, Eric, and Sergei are not crazy. They are in fact the few who are less crazy than others for doing the deal. The crazzies are the investors and analysts who got the stock to $500 in the first place. More about Youtube deal

GoogTube Would Be Most Expensive, Defensive and Riskiest Acquisiton Ever

I read Mark's blog posting Some Thoughts on Youtube and Google and I disagree with Mark's view. Mark believes that Google (Nasdaq GOOG) would be moronic to buy YouTube. I say they would be moronic not to buy.

There is only one #1 player in any given market as Internet entrepreneurs and investors have discovered with the outsized valuation given the Google. Leaders like MySpace and YouTube deserve significant premiums because they not only are synonymous with the product being delivered (MySpace/social networking, YouTube/video sharing, Google/search), but users gravitate towards those services because of their reputation. It takes no convincing to get a user to try MySpace, YouTube, or Google because chances are someone they know already uses it - and recommends it.

An advertising deal with YouTube would solidify Google as a #1 in video ads, but a buyout would solidify Google as the leader in Web 2.0 video.

Pop Quiz (Multiple Choice). Select the best answer below.
What do you want to be when you grow up? Do you want to be

* A) WPP Group Plc (selling advertising) (Nasdaq WPPGY)?
* B) Viacom, Inc. (broadcasting content) (Nasdaq VIAB)?
* C) Comcast Corporation (the leader in cable television, content and delivery) (Nasdaq CMCSA)?

<strong>The answer is ...</strong>