Seeking Alpha

dsadak

dsadak
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Kid Dynamite draws on his career in an internal hedge fund to provide outstanding perspective. The issue is JPM has TRILLIONS in exposure, too complicated for even the most seasoned professionals to understand. If this could happen to the best-in-class, what might we think about the rest of the banks? 2008 is not that long ago and the loss in "trust" is of far more import than the $2B.  [View news story]
    i dont understand why is that a surprise that someone within a department that manages 350B dollar portfolio is capable of loosing 2B? people are prone to make mistakes - thats a fact, so losses should be expected. The magnitude of these losses should only be considered relative to the size of the company so when companies are allowed to grow to these disturbingly enormous proportions, systematic risk becomes really apparent.
    May 11 12:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How important are student loans to overall consumer credit growth? Take them out, and "there has been virtually no rebound in consumer credit since the Great Recession ended," Jim Bianco writes. "The consumer has not been borrowing... Rather, students took advantage of below-market rates on loans provided by the government starting in 2009.”  [View news story]
    hilarious conclusion in regards to students taking advantage of the below market rates. first of all students have no understanding of where the market lies in the first place. second the real driver was the unemployment that pretty much forced people to go back to school.
    May 9 10:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shares of Green Mountain (GMCR) slip another 2.2% to fall to a lowly $24.56 as the Monday morning quarterbacking continues on how sell-side analysts could miss the boat so badly on GMCR with seemingly alarming questions on the firm's accounting and sales growth hanging in the wind. While Josh Brown already cut analysts to sheds with his take last week, Jeff Reeves can't help making hay out of Dougherty's less-than-impressive PT cut to $80 in advance of GMCR's earnings bombshell. [View news story]
    what i found interesting is a 13m "gift" in company stock by Robert Stiller - one of company's directors - a month prior to a 50% drop in stock price...
    May 7 05:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shares of Green Mountain (GMCR) slip another 2.2% to fall to a lowly $24.56 as the Monday morning quarterbacking continues on how sell-side analysts could miss the boat so badly on GMCR with seemingly alarming questions on the firm's accounting and sales growth hanging in the wind. While Josh Brown already cut analysts to sheds with his take last week, Jeff Reeves can't help making hay out of Dougherty's less-than-impressive PT cut to $80 in advance of GMCR's earnings bombshell. [View news story]
    same, there is always further slippage after disappointing earnings. however, the timing is quite unfortunate as macro factors could push it down beyond its fundamentals.
    May 7 01:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Comcast (CMCSA +0.5%) will soon begin testing a new way to deliver its television channels: via internet protocol. The move could eventually enable the cable provider to deliver video service to any customer with an internet connection, regardless of whether they live in an area covered by Comcast's cable system.  [View news story]
    agreed about time, i'm shocked to see that they've invested in technology that will bring to an end the monopolistic set up we are currently under. let the price wars begin!
    May 26 10:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Politicians like to claim the U.S. government should balance its books like the typical family. But there's a problem with that analysis: American families are awash in debt, too. U.S. consumer credit totals ~$2.4T for borrowing on credit cards and for car loans, vacations, college loans... and that doesn't count the trillions in borrowing for home mortgages.  [View news story]
    your analysis is terribly flawed since even you probably understand that that top 2 percent of americans that do control 80% of those assets that you just listed barely have any debt, on the other side the consumer that spends his last money on ipads, ipods and other crap that is actually keeping our economy afloat is actually very highly leveraged. the problem is its the consumer that doesnt have any equity in the equation is expected to keep the economy going because lets be realistic, how many ferraries can one buy before he will run out of space on the his racetrack? what i'm trying to say is that 2% of people who do have the money to spend will not be able to spend enough to support the economy while the rest do have the will but not the means. so yes if government will not keep the spending economy will tank. its a simple equation with only few variables why do people have so much trouble doing the numbers??
    May 16 09:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon.com (AMZN -1.7%) shares slip as comments circulate from CEO Jeff Bezos that the company will cease affiliate operations in states that force it to collect sales tax. Amazon has already announced plans to cancel its affiliate program in Illinois, and Bezos says "we will continue to drop states who pass those affiliate laws."  [View news story]
    kmi, agreed.
    this tax inefficiency, however stems from the fact that states can not agree who should be collecting the revenue from the sale, in other words because in an online sale it is hard to determine where POS actually occurred states were not able to collect any. stupid? - yes, inefficient? - yes. but for the first time its for the benefit of the consumer.
    May 12 01:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon.com (AMZN -1.7%) shares slip as comments circulate from CEO Jeff Bezos that the company will cease affiliate operations in states that force it to collect sales tax. Amazon has already announced plans to cancel its affiliate program in Illinois, and Bezos says "we will continue to drop states who pass those affiliate laws."  [View news story]
    interesting, just because in this case consumer interests as well as corporation's are aligned.
    May 12 10:04 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street hopes John Boehner will offer reassurance in his NYC speech tonight that Congress will "negotiate and debate" but "when it comes down to brass tracks, they are going to raise that debt ceiling." Instead, the House Speaker appears set to demand trillions in cuts to get a debt ceiling hike, setting up a collision course with Pres. Obama and Democrats.  [View news story]
    Tomas, agreed on both points, most financially savvy corporations did refinance their debts as well as issued new debt for the purposes you've mentioned. IBs are on the hiring spree as we speak to help facilitate the M&A activity. however as you pointed out, corporations are very smart about managing their money and will not spend until they see the growth potential and thats from my perspective is whats missing. as per fed, there is political pressure to reconcile spending but clearly it only becomes an issue when its too late. also us has hired a pretty savvy ex HF manager to help manage our debt from the IR/inflation perspective. apparently under previous administrations these risks were not managed, we just printed as we needed more - shocking? - yes, but i cant say that current administration is not taking major steps when it comes to managing our debt
    May 10 10:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street hopes John Boehner will offer reassurance in his NYC speech tonight that Congress will "negotiate and debate" but "when it comes down to brass tracks, they are going to raise that debt ceiling." Instead, the House Speaker appears set to demand trillions in cuts to get a debt ceiling hike, setting up a collision course with Pres. Obama and Democrats.  [View news story]
    Nunay actually you could not be more wrong about why corporations hold so much cash. why would they want to pay off the debt that pays such low interest? - makes no sense. corporations like everyone else are skeptical on where economy is going to turn. they are holding off hiring as well increasing cap ex. everyone is watching what extremists (i.e. our politicians) are going to come up with.
    May 10 09:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street hopes John Boehner will offer reassurance in his NYC speech tonight that Congress will "negotiate and debate" but "when it comes down to brass tracks, they are going to raise that debt ceiling." Instead, the House Speaker appears set to demand trillions in cuts to get a debt ceiling hike, setting up a collision course with Pres. Obama and Democrats.  [View news story]
    Joe, cutting taxes when everyone is strapped for cash will result in absolutely no money inflow into the system, which is what was needed at the time. just in case you've missed it: i'm sure you are familiar with the concept of deleveraging, well cutting taxes does not stop the free fall when the system goes through this process, only the inflow of money could accomplish that, which in turn is either accomplished directly by pumping money into the system (which is what had happened) or by increasing the money multiplier which is usually accomplished by further leveraging, which im sure you can understand was not an option at the time. so frankly i am not sure what other tools or methods that you have in mind that would of prevented a depression with the same swiftness as the methods our Fed had employed.
    my point being from the start fed acted quickly and did the right things. Now however Fed is faced with a dilemma: money that has been pumped into the financial system have not been getting through into general economy. if you read the newspapers you will notice that corporations are sitting on enormous stockpiles of cash (i'm sure even if you just scanned the headlines you would of noticed something along the lines "corporation cash levels are at historic highs") which means cutting their taxes will accomplish absolutely nothing but shove more cash down their throats. and this is where we are, so please do tell how any of the brilliant solutions proposed by the radical right wingers will produce any positive results let me emphasize this: FOR THE US ECONOMY
    May 9 10:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • FDIC chief Sheila Bair to step down, effective July 8.  [View news story]
    i would say this a buy signal for IB stocks
    May 9 03:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Following a complaint filed by four academics, Portugal opens a criminal inquiry into Moody's (MCO), S&P (MHP), and Fitch. Claiming severe financial damage for Portugal, the complaint demands to know if the agencies profited from ratings changes.  [View news story]
    the only reasonable complaint to the rating agencies could be "why are their ratings updates are es-post vs ex-ante?" in other words whats the point, we already know that **** hit the fan.
    May 9 02:14 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The continuing slide in home prices has put 28% of homeowners underwater on their mortgages vs. 22% a year ago, according to the new Zillow report. "We get tired of telling such a grim story," says Zillow's chief economist Stan Humphries, who sees prices falling another 9% in 2011.  [View news story]
    whyostocks,
    if by stabilize drop another 15-40% i am 100% with you. except that would probably finish off our ailing consumer. the problem with QE and other stability programs is that they stabilize financial infrastructure opposed to the actual economy. take QE for example: it does little but recapitalize the banks (the fact that the rates on mortgages were low did help a bit, but in a grand scheme of things clearly the juicy part of the stake went to the banks). my point being is that stabilizing wall st is a necessary but not sufficient criteria when it comes to stabilizing the economy, "main st" has little benefit from recovery in stocks when it comes to personal wealth (taking pensions out of the picture). this is because average Joe's personal portfolio is much less diversified, with two major components being: 1 personal income and 2 his investment in the house. as we know neither has seen a substantial (or frankly any kind of) recovery.
    May 9 10:40 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bernanke has gotten a lot of grief for his confidence that any recent inflation is "transitory." (I, II, III) But after this week's commodities rout and the latest jobs data showing no wage pressures at all, ol' Ben's starting to look pretty good, isn't he?  [View news story]
    VOL FAN,
    I disagree with you on several points:
    1) China is not our best customer, its actually vice versa. so in a way they are financing their own growth.
    2) the rest of the world holds that enormous amount of debt that we have issued, so while dumping (or more realistically speaking diversification) by foreign banks will take affect, it will be gradual and is only natural as globalization progresses.
    Furthermore, this diversification process in no way implies that foreign banks will get rid of our holdings all together: 1 they all realize how costly it will be for them and 2 US is considered to be the safest of the financial markets and therefore holding our debt in their global portfolios makes a great deal of sense. now my guess is your point is that we could potentially loose that status so what happens then? well have you considered the potential candidates for thrown? China? - i think thats out of question as they are still very far away from capitalism, Germany? too small of an economy and more importantly it is a part of EU that has more issues with their broken down fiscal and monetary policies than we do. i think as of now the is no alternative to US debt and the fact that our debt is growing is not necessarily a bad thing as long as the demand for it keeps up. in other words as EM economies gain traction they will also need to diversify their portfolios and "risk free" debt definitely should be a part of it. so as long as global economy is growing, demand for our debt should be growing with it, hence setting hard limits on our debt levels is just silly.
    May 7 02:13 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
16 Comments
23 Likes