Crispin_in_Waterloo

Crispin_in_Waterloo
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  • BlackBerry Defeated  [View article]
    "...when the government complains that they cannot decrypt iPhone communications,..."

    Well they would say that, wouldn't they? They decrypt everything. They always did. They have always had the resources to do so.

    It matters what people think, so they say what they say for public consumption.

    BBRY can still make all-Android devices of high quality. Other can compete in that space. I will not lament the 'loss of BBRY' because I don't think it is going away. You comment that the R&D in software will be lost. All software development money is lost, the question is can you make $$ for a while from the current version.

    BBRY can have their own flavour of Android. It may be much better than others and provide features others don't have. There is lot of room for innovation.

    It ain't over.
    Feb 4, 2016. 06:10 PM | 20 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry cleared to add 15M shares to buyback; shares higher  [View news story]
    Chris, good point. Until the effect of service fee (which they invented) is gone it will look bad because there was money-for-nothing for so long. Now the model is software licencing and support. MSFT has done reasonably well with that over the years, I think.

    MSFT has lots a fortune trying to make hardware, licenced hardware, branded hardware, anything. People don't really like their hardware which I believe in my heart is being sold below cost. They are trying to stay in the hdwe game long enough for the iPhone iFashion to wear off, which is inevitable. Apple is becoming the WordPerfect of hardware and the vultures are circling. WordPerfect, people will recall, was too big to fail, too embedded, Word sucked so badly but came with an OS package, and a cleverly marketed OS it was. 3rd of 4th best in the OS game but dominated in the end.

    MSFT and BBRY are waiting but not sitting still. MSFT wants into hardware with snazzy software on it. That is the future. BBRY is already there but has to shift from service fees. They are keeping their hdwe quality high and their reputation, even in memory only, is intact. No one remembers their BB for its bad hardware. No one. As for the OS, let's wait and see. As for the software, they dominate their sector.
    Jan 29, 2016. 12:08 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry cleared to add 15M shares to buyback; shares higher  [View news story]
    Yes we do and it was a great time to buy. BBRY is not closing, it is not going bankrupt slowly. It is dealing with a transition from service fee income (profit in that case) to software licence income. Hardware is an also-ran.

    BBRY is wonderfully volatile.
    Jan 29, 2016. 12:01 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry cleared to add 15M shares to buyback; shares higher  [View news story]
    Omar, good point.

    Remember that this is in addition to dropping short positions. A short position is a share dilution. They sell a share that was not created, but sold twice, from a total sell-purchase point of view. Closing short positions requires pulling a share off the market and giving it back to the one who originally bought (and now owns) it, increasing the share price. Buying at the same time provokes the situation. It rises even farther, and increases the value of existing shares, the very opposite of someone taking a new short position.

    When calculating the value of a share based on the number issued, one has to compensate for 'double-sold' short positions and 'double-bought' company buy-backs.

    Watch for Apple to be buying a lot of shares back this year to try to maintain the share value. As people increasing sell Apple short, double-selling, in effect, management will have to buy back the same number to keep the price the same, all other things being equal. To generate a price rise in a falling share price requires a large investment in removing shares - which is Apple's problem now. BBRY has the opposite condition: falling short interest, stable price, and they are buying back. That provides a double lift.
    Jan 29, 2016. 11:59 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry launches product line pairing BES12 with Good Technology offerings  [View news story]
    And a fine set of features they have in that! Wow. Comprehensive and integrated.

    I hope there are no early bugs in it or everyone will be whining.

    I see the consensus (63%) of analysts have a Buy rating, with a target of $7.75 this year. If the market tanks (which is likely) in the face of unalterable deflation, (paying for the sins of, as Harry Dent says, 'kicking the can down the road') that target might by an admirable gain.

    Things to stay away from in this space are my usual suspects: Twitter, Apple, Samsung, FaceBook. WeChat and WeiBo.

    Things to buy: BBRY two weeks before the next Q announcement, plus beer, moving companies, working skill upgrade schools, Kijiji, Amazon, Fashion TV, Netflix.
    Jan 26, 2016. 03:44 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yes, QNX Might Become A Big Revenue Stream For BlackBerry In The Future  [View article]
    Bits and bytes are better for marketing cars than bimbos. Thank goodness someone is noticing.

    The ground floor is a good place to be. So thought Digital Research when they made a superior multi-tasking operating system (DRDOS) in the 80's. We all know how that turned out.

    No one ever went bankrupt underestimating the taste of the American consumer. In spite of that, I predict QBX will survive. A major consideration in favour of this is the fact that Ford dropped an MSFT OS in favour of the simpler solution that was already in more popular use.
    Jan 21, 2016. 01:32 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry gets $20M Veterans Affairs contract  [View news story]
    So the purchase is performing as expected.
    Jan 19, 2016. 11:13 AM | 20 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Recent Developments Reveal Issues For BlackBerry  [View article]
    I love my physical keyboard devices - all of them, and can only barely tolerate the all-touch ones. Dictating is OK, but not for public spaces where I happen to spend a lot of my time. Until a smartphone can write down what I am thinking, I will stick with keyboards.
    Jan 19, 2016. 08:37 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Recent Developments Reveal Issues For BlackBerry  [View article]
    Georges:

    I would like to mention that 'longs' don't have to buy and sit. One of the ways to make money with stocks is to invest in markets that are volatile within reason. When I first started tracking stocks with paper and pencil in a U of T frat house, it was all about oil stocks. They were stable enough to be safe but volatile enough to bother trading. BBRY is one of the best stocks around to trade at the moment. One can rest assured that in present hands and with its present product portfolio, it is not going to close. It is too keyed into its market to fail. The lower limit is the cash position. The upside is huge and general knowledge of that drives the volatility. It has enemies which provides the chillies.

    If you don't what to watch too closely, just buy BBRY on Monday afternoons and sell sometime Thursday morning.
    Jan 19, 2016. 08:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Recent Developments Reveal Issues For BlackBerry  [View article]
    David, Thorsten was holding up the Z10 as I recall. Facts first, eh?

    Steve Jobs did not design everything, he bought companies with inventions he though could compile and sell, whether he liked them or not. Those who would not sell to him he copied and said, "So sue me." He directed that the internals of iPhones be mediocre and the price high to keep up the profits. It worked, became fashionable, and is now falling out of fashion. APPL is heading for $65. So much for Cramer's "$200".

    Have you heard the announcement that the iPhone 8 will have the same quality screens as the Passport has now? Well, almost as good, but its a start, and only 2 generations away.

    You misrepresenting Jobs, Thorsten, or Chen will not help investors decide what to do. Have a look at the Chinese market overnight: Shanghai up >3%. What do you think about BBRY today? It is following the market and creeping up sequentially. The shorts are wandering off - even they think BBRY is not going to collapse.

    Buy today, sell Thursday morning. That's my advice.
    Jan 19, 2016. 08:27 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Recent Developments Reveal Issues For BlackBerry  [View article]
    David: Ousting Chen would accomplish what, exactly?

    You are going to offer the next leader your invention? That is going to turn the company around because it is going to be 'likeable' instead of 'unlikeable' as all other BB's are now?

    What did Chen "blame on software"? The decision to lock in chip manufacturers without let-out clause that cost $4bn? Oh wait, that was someone else. The decision to run the Storm to market with a half-baked OS and almost no apps? (Actually that was a nice piece of hardware, produced by Kempf's team in a very short period of time.) Can't blame the hardware for that one.

    If Chen can't sell enough phones, he should not offer them. So far it seems he can. So what's the beef? Not selling as many as Xiaomi? So what? It is the Fiat 500 of phones. I am not interested.
    Jan 19, 2016. 08:19 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Recent Developments Reveal Issues For BlackBerry  [View article]
    "What this means to a company whose whole reputation depends on security"

    Say what? Their reputation relies on really well made hardware combined with top notch corporate security systems. Was the hacked device managed by BES? Would it have made a difference?

    It was never my understanding that BB's cannot be hacked - the NSA even out put instructions for how to obtain information from a BB: hack the device on which the backup files exist and hope they are not encrypted, was the first choice because it takes less resources.

    The issue with PGP is that it is open to brute force assault. Something like ten years ago I heard about a computer built in Toronto that was able to crack 1024 bit encryption in three hours using brute force. It had 500 huge (undescribed) IBM processors. Nothing is 'uncrackable' it is just the amount of resources needed to do so.

    The Middle Eastern countries and India had a big issue with BBM because to be useful, such messages have to be cracked pretty much in real time. This they were not able to do using their available computer resources and were threatening to push BBM out of their local markets. You will recall the issue (pending) where Pakistan wants to ban BES 12 because they simply can't read it fast enough to be meaningful. It is too secure for a nation that is advanced enough to build nuclear weapons. It cannot be that much of a walk in the park.

    Citing a single case where the RCMP, given weeks, could pull information from a PGP muddled chip does not say much other than BB's are Really Secure, and that without invoking any of the available corporate upgrades used by the likes of Angela Merkel.

    If a BB were 'no more secure' than Android, the Prez would be using a Google phone, wouldn't he. He isn't. Read between those lines.

    As for the share value, hardware has nothing to contribute to the share value at the moment. The market has discounted anything arising from hardware. If BBRY was to depart the hardware business, which they are not, it would have no effect on the price at all. It would in fact remove a downside risk.
    Jan 18, 2016. 02:53 PM | 51 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CDC heavily debated cellphone radiation risk  [View news story]
    Here are a few additional numbers:

    Cellphone assumed to have 1 W output at low GHZ frequencies (same as used in a microwave except commercial ones which are lower).
    Cellphones are isotropic sources (non-directional).
    The head could absorb perhaps 1/4 of this energy, maybe 1/10th, i.e. 100-250 mW max.
    Microwave radiation absorption standard distance used for calculations: 2 inches (USA Standard). Double that radius assuming 'some effective heating'.
    Surface area affected: 78 sq cm.
    Energy absorbed = 2.5-3.2 mW/cm^2
    Permissible microwave radiation for USA microwave ovens: 5 mW per cm^2 at 2 inches distance, average.
    Permitted radiation from microwave ovens: 5 mW: "This is far below the exposure level currently considered to be harmful to human health."

    So a cell phone is offering less than 1/2 the risk level considered 'far below the exposure level currently considered to be harmful to human health".

    Temperature rise due to cell phone exposure at 3 mW/cm^2 at two inches distance:
    Depth of penetration is approximately 3.2 cm, i.e. 3.2 cu cm is being heated by 0.003 Joules per second per cu cm.
    Specific heat (Cp) of brain matter, perhaps 4 J/K.
    Net heating effect: 0.012 degrees per cu cm per second.

    Blood flow renders this effect null and ineffective as a heater.

    The warming of the ear by a discharging battery surface has a far stronger effect (as an infrared radiator) on the head than the microwave radiation.
    Jan 10, 2016. 01:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CDC heavily debated cellphone radiation risk  [View news story]
    Menasian I really appreciate you using real numbers and a scientific approach in your analysis. I have not checked your numbers.

    Cancer is generally attributed to ionising radiation. Standing in the sun (in fact, standing outdoors) exposes one to radiation from above GCR, CR, etc, with a value of maybe 15-25 micro-Sieverts. Stepping into the concrete building can raise this number depending on the amount of uranium in the granite aggregate. How does a cell phone compare with this?

    The Swedes in particular spent a LOT of time trying to prove EM radiation causes something bad and failed so far. A one Watt phone is not an appreciable contributor to our global burden of disease (GBD).
    Jan 10, 2016. 10:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CDC heavily debated cellphone radiation risk  [View news story]
    David, your statement about battery size and it's relation to radiation is false.
    Jan 10, 2016. 10:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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