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abragman

abragman
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  • Sorry, But The BlackBerry Passport Is Not Being Panned [View article]
    That was directed towards whoever said "you must be new" not you.

    I'm not an investor in BBRY, I've been thinking about it though. The downside risk seems minimal considering the cash position and the valuable assets, I just haven't found a compelling enough reason to think the upside is worth the price of admission.
    Aug 20 08:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sorry, But The BlackBerry Passport Is Not Being Panned [View article]
    Because you're a fanboy and while this may appear to be an investing website, it's well known that it's a tech forum?
    Aug 20 06:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sorry, But The BlackBerry Passport Is Not Being Panned [View article]
    The SeekingAlpha slogan is "Read. Decide. Invest." Not "Read. Decide. Buy your new device." This is becoming a tech forum.

    Either most of you are brilliant investors just taking a break from real analysis to geek out over a smartphone or whatever it is, or (more likely) you are long this stock because they make a product you like. Or because you hate AAPL and root for the little guy. Or for some other reason that has absolutely nothing to do with financial analysis.

    There's hasn't been one substantive, factual piece of analysis done here (save the guy who laid out the BB10 sales/inventory levels/etc, and 1 or 2 additional posts which were informative/contained data). If you want to say here are my sales projections for the Passport, here's the effect on revenue, here's what EPS will be, and I think the stock price will be in this range based on some multiple, THEN you can get all jazzed up about the phone, IN THE CONTEXT of your financial analysis. Sure, an AWESOME product will probably sell more than a crappy product. But didn't we just establish that the BB10 was sent down from the heavens and acclaimed as such, but still didn't sell very well?

    People on this site are investors deciding whether or not to take an equity position in a company, not consumers shopping for a new cell phone. Cheerlead and review products in the absence of financial analysis elsewhere.
    Aug 20 01:37 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sorry, But The BlackBerry Passport Is Not Being Panned [View article]
    Obviously that wasn't a serious request, I was just turning the tone back to cheerleading after I brought the whole analytical/negativity thing on board.

    I'm sure the BB10 is an excellent phone, I've heard that from quite a few people, I don't doubt it for a second. Perception rarely matches up with reality, especially when AAPL is involved--those Kool Aid drinkers are the worst. If you put an Apple logo on their toilet they'd swear it was the most amazing thing under the sun.

    But after all these awards, accolades and whatever else--what is there to show for it? Awards and accolades. That's it. Blame marketing, blame whoever you want--I'm looking at the income statement, and I don't see anything to be happy about. On one hand you look at the ratios and you see a potentially "cheap" company that with ANY growth could become a 2-3 bagger over the next couple years; on the other hand I see a company that could stagnate for 5 years and eventually get bought for a small premium over book value--basically right where it is today.

    I'm just looking for a reason to buy this stock, and I haven't found one. And until there is reason to believe the Passport or anything else BBRY makes is going to SELL--as in make a top-line contribution, I don't care about its awards--I just don't see where the growth is going to come from.
    Aug 19 07:30 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sorry, But The BlackBerry Passport Is Not Being Panned [View article]
    Good. I'm sick of this being an echo chamber for people to feed into the hype of their favorite stock.

    My comments weren't directed at the original contributor, he was just discussing some of the negativity around the product launch and the fact that a lot of shorts may be the ones spreading this negativity. Rather, my comments are directed to most of the people who have commented since, either turning this into a cell phone discussion forum, or speculating on the impending recovery with no financial projections to back it up. If you think a single product launch, even if it goes well, is going to unsink this ship--you're drinking the Kool Aid. If you're gonna be a blind Kool Aid drinker I'd start touting AAPL, seems like easier money.
    Aug 19 07:20 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sorry, But The BlackBerry Passport Is Not Being Panned [View article]
    However unreasonable the shorts are being, as far as dismissing any notion that the restructuring might be successful and that the company won't be sold for its bits and pieces, I think a lot of the comments here show that a lot of people are equally unreasonable on the long side of things.

    This is turning into the Blackberry cheerleader section with everyone waving their pom poms like there's something to be happy about--over what? Some new phone/tablet (who even cares what it is)? How have the last 5 years of hardware launches gone for BBRY, and you really, truly expect this one to either meet or exceed expectations? And even if it DOES meet/exceed expectations, this is only step 1 of a major restructuring, and possibly not even a significant step given the new focus of the business. If you're just jazzed up to use their stupid phone--great, go on Blackberry.com I'm sure they have a forum/echo chamber for people like you. This is a website for FINANCIAL ANALYSIS not cheerleading.

    Everyone is conveniently ignoring the financials in favor of speculation, excitement, and some hilarious notion that because BBRY USED to be a blue chip stock it is destined to return to its former glory. Newsflash: If you want to buy BBRY stock today, you're gonna need a shovel.

    I'd imagine there is probably something on the software/security end of the business (ya know, THEIR CORE COMPETENCIES) to be excited about that may drive future growth, but it's clear I'm not going to find anything like that here.

    I don't want to change the happy tone here so let's try this--what's everyone's favorite new feature about the Passport, and why do you think it's so much better than the iPhone?!?! Ya know, the product that basically drove BBRY into the toilet, from that company that also does software/security...the one that's been eating BBRYs lunch for the last 5 years......(Continue waving pom poms)
    Aug 19 07:01 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sorry, But The BlackBerry Passport Is Not Being Panned [View article]
    On one hand, I'm sure you're right about a lot of things in this article, from the shorts driving the bad news bus to the phone being good/great/amazing. And I am considering going long BBRY as I think its priced for a worst-case scenario.

    On the other hand you're talking about a company that once dominated the smartphone/hardware market, but has since laid off 60% of its employees because it isn't even a minor player in the space anymore. They just underwent an entire restructuring and decided that software is now their core competency. Why? Because nobody wanted their phones.

    Who cares if its a good phone? Even if it does sell at or above expectations, will this significantly contribute to a BBRY turnaround? Not a hardware division turnaround, not a congrats on making a phone people actually bought turnaround, I'm talking a bringing the company out of the toilet turnaround. I haven't looked into their financials enough to know, but based on the fact that they're a software company now I can't imagine the new phone is going to make or break the company long-term.
    Aug 19 01:53 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Multiple Re-Balancing For Chipotle? [View article]
    You're a brave soul
    Jul 23 01:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Multiple Re-Balancing For Chipotle? [View article]
    Well this is awkward
    Jul 21 08:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analysis: DirecTV to add SEC Network to keep the peace with Disney [View news story]
    Isn't that always the case when it's a major network vs a cable provider? There's only one ESPN (family of channels), and if my cable provider stops carrying ESPN tomorrow I'm switching, I don't care who is at fault or what. And I'm sure there are millions of people (specifically men between 18-45) who would do the same.
    Jul 14 04:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldman Sachs: Still Not Attractive Enough [View article]
    The 1-yr price comparison to the S&P seems rather irrelevant, the upside calculation/estimates are interesting though. Pretty good stuff.
    Jul 1 08:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medallion Financial: Hail This High Yield [View article]
    Does this really require clarification? Most have zero driving experience or any clue where the hell they're going. I'm not too picky about who I pay to drive me short distances but when you're able to make LA cab drivers look professional (which ├╝ber x drivers do) you're really doing something wrong.
    Jun 5 07:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Medallion Financial: Hail This High Yield [View article]
    UberX drivers make cab drivers look like rocket scientists. Uber black car/SUV drivers are professional drivers but their rates are much higher than cab rates. I think any negative effects of Uber's presence would be baked into TAXI's price already, and competing with Uber doesn't mean there can't still be demand for medallions and financiers of medallion purchases.
    May 30 07:06 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vale... Ya? Not Yet. Still Reckless, Not Contrarian. [View article]
    But you don't think this is turning around anytime in the short-/medium-term? Seems like if the political/regulatory environment became more favorable, both VALE and PBR would appreciate to more reasonable valuation levels. Thoughts?
    May 7 03:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vale... Ya? Not Yet. Still Reckless, Not Contrarian. [View article]
    Great data
    May 3 01:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
35 Comments
41 Likes