abragman

abragman
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  • BlackBerry Defeated  [View article]
    My crystal ball tells me a lot of replies will fall under the following categories:

    -Pissed off BBRY fanboys and fangirls
    -Fanboys/girls who have nothing good to say about BBRY but who make themselves feel better by bringing up negative points about AAPL
    -People who question your integrity and motives for writing a *gasp* negative article about a company
    Feb 4, 2016. 06:01 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ignore PRIV Detractors, BlackBerry Belongs Over $10  [View article]
    Ignore priv detractors, and the supply/demand equation in BBRY's order book that indicate very clearly that this stock is a ~$9 asset, and stick with this nice, round, whole-numbered arbitrary price target.

    Woo Priv! Woo BBRY. Shooting the moon in 2016 baby!
    Dec 24, 2015. 04:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Admit, BlackBerry's Bad Days Are Over  [View article]
    I have yet to read a sell-side investment banking analyst report where technical analysis is the basis for an opinion. You're literally building a straw man out of a (non-existent, hypothetical) analyst argument and arguing against THAT.

    Oh, good one, where were the analysts at the market bottom? Where was ANYBODY at the market bottom? That's a good way to discredit someone--go back in time and find examples of them not being able to literally see the future. Genius.
    Dec 24, 2015. 04:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Is A Better Stock Than Apple For 2016  [View article]
    Which market are you looking at? In the market on my planet, AAPL is one of the largest companies in the world and BBRY is hoping to be in the black within a couple years.....
    Dec 24, 2015. 04:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Admit, BlackBerry's Bad Days Are Over  [View article]
    Right, it's their investment advisors job to consider their risk tolerance, time horizon, liquidity needs, etc.

    The analyst just tells you what they think is going to happen to the stock, the pros, the cons, the risks, the rewards, etc. Then they slap a price target on it and call it a buy/sell/hold (market perform/outperform/und... they all have slightly different rating systems it seems.

    But that's the great thing about a price target--hedge funds, individuals, young people, widows and orphans all want assets that (they think) will appreciate, so I'd say the rating is the rating, but yeah certainly BBRY would be more appropriate for a 20 year-old making a speculative buy vs. a widow who needs income from her equities to survive.
    Dec 21, 2015. 07:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Is A Better Stock Than Apple For 2016  [View article]
    My main point was that whoever said "well Apple didn't release watch numbers either" is missing the point that: (1) AAPL is AAPL, BBRY is like 1% of AAPL and (2) not revealing your not-core product sales when your company is flourishing is entirely different than not revealing sales figures for a core product for an unprofitable or barely profitable entity, especially when that's the product that's "going to make the company relevant/profitable again."
    Dec 21, 2015. 07:49 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ignore PRIV Detractors, BlackBerry Belongs Over $10  [View article]
    Entirely unsaleable. But don't tell that to the cheerleaders.
    Dec 21, 2015. 07:40 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Is A Better Stock Than Apple For 2016  [View article]
    Just like Warren Buffett said--"steady price growth and stable dividends are for chumps. Go high-risk and seek high returns. Don't settle for that measly 2% return!"

    You're in good company Professor. Very good company.
    Dec 19, 2015. 06:27 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Is A Better Stock Than Apple For 2016  [View article]
    The world isn't a particularly fair place.

    If I'm an analyst for XYZ Investment Bank and AAPL doesn't give me specific Watch figures, I may not love that, but they have so many other revenue sources that I can still get a price target out of my model. Most analysts have them at a Buy, that didn't lead many (if any) to downgrade them, that's the luxury of being an AAPL, GOOG, FB, etc.

    If BBRY doesn't give me specific figures about their hot new phone--the product that's gonna right the ship, the savior of hardware, sold out on this and that site--especially if Priv revenue is a decent chunk of total revenue, what can an analyst do with that? They have to tell their clients they're uncertain of the company until those #s come out, there's no way they're upgrading it as uncertain as things are right now....it's just hard to be confident without being confident about Priv sales if you're doing the math.

    That's just how the world works. Smaller companies trying to right the ship have to play ball with analysts more so than the top dogs. Personally I don't see why they can't just give a number--even if it's way off the target figure, the street would give them credit for being on pace to hit the target (if that's the case). If they weren't keeping pace they'd be punished, but that'll happen sooner or later, so you may as well be transparent about it.

    I'm sure JC makes more than I do for good reason though.
    Dec 19, 2015. 06:06 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Is A Better Stock Than Apple For 2016  [View article]
    Don't get me wrong--it could happen. If I were a betting man (and, obviously, we all are) I'd lay the lumber on AAPL's total return over the period vs BBRY's.

    Not a high conviction play, not betting the farm or anything, but it's sort of like taking Aaron Rodgers against a rookie QB.......just feels right.

    To be clear, even if BBRY's equity DOUBLES in value over the next 365 days (+$4.5B in market value) and AAPL loses that much equity, AAPL will still probably be the biggest company in the world and they'd still have many, many BBRY's worth of cash parked on their balance sheet. I'm not an Apple fanboy or anything--they call their tech people Geniuses and make you talk to them at the Genius bar. That's obnoxious.

    I'm all about rooting for the little guy, but don't lose sight of the long-term. If Tom Brady loses a game to the Raiders--I know Tom Brady and the Patriots are still better than the Raiders. Out- or under-performance over short periods of time just doesn't matter, even if it's fun to speculate on.
    Dec 19, 2015. 05:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Is A Better Stock Than Apple For 2016  [View article]
    Another "BBRY will outperform AAPL over X period" article......I'd say it has to happen at some point. And maybe it will. I just don't see it happening in 2016.

    But BOL.
    Dec 19, 2015. 01:35 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Admit, BlackBerry's Bad Days Are Over  [View article]
    Of course analysts aren't always right, but they don't work 80 hours a week and get paid handsomely to do the old eyeball test and slap a number on the price target.

    They wade through piles and piles of numbers to arrive at their final conclusions, analyzing the direction of every cash flow, asking Investor Relations department questions.....if the upside was SO OBVIOUS, they'd be upgrading BBRY to a STRONG BUY. Do you think they don't want to be right? Do you think they aren't PAID for being right? Trust me--when they think the stock is a buy, you'll know.

    Until then, anyone is free to wholeheartedly disagree with them, just don't question them as a group because their final opinion differs from yours.
    Dec 18, 2015. 08:00 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Earnings: Priv Fails To Deliver  [View article]
    Up to 200, down below 10, and you're pointing to one day's performance.

    Classic. Absolutely classic.
    Dec 18, 2015. 05:36 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Admit, BlackBerry's Bad Days Are Over  [View article]
    Thank you. This will prove invaluable when performing fundamental analysis of this company.
    Dec 18, 2015. 04:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Admit, BlackBerry's Bad Days Are Over  [View article]
    Sorry to say I have never bought or sold BBRY stock in my entire life. I know there's a mandate that to participate in the Comments section of a BBRY thread you either have to be waving pom poms or raining on everyone's parade, so I apologize for violating that mandate.

    I know this makes me sound even crazier, but I've really loved stocks before, when straight out of nowhere something materially negative presents itself and I'm forced to stop loving it. By the same token, I've thought stocks were terribly buys in the past when all the sudden something changes my opinion in the other direction, and my "strong sell" becomes a buy!

    Not being married to a ticker symbol allows you to do real analysis. It's truly liberating. Yall should give it a shot.

    And yes the Goldman analyst released a report this morning. Still a sell, although no updated price target was given. Previous PT was $6. She noted that BBRY backed away from its target of sustainable non-GAAP profitability by 4QFY16, however she didn't say what effect (if any) that has on her rating. There may very well be an updated price target, an upgrade from sell or any number of other things forthcoming that I don't know about.
    Dec 18, 2015. 04:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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