joblock

joblock
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
  • Seadrill And Transocean: Complete Fleet Comparison And Analysis As Of September 8, 2014  [View article]
    The recent drop in price of oil has almost nothing to do with demand for offshore drilling. First off, with the exception of XOM, at least 80% of majors oil production is sold 6 to 9 months out. So the drop in oil since June has not shown up on any ones radar yet. We are bidding and buying rig time and leased locations based on a budget we created 18 months ago. More over, the current production costs in the gulf are below $80, so we will continue to drill as much as we can, until we can't get $80.
    As far as the leases I work with, our biggest problem is finding qualified people to work on the rigs. We have subsea engineers retiring everyday, and we don't have the personnel to replace them. What used to take 2 to 3 weeks to put together a qualified crew now may take 4 to 6 months. When Deepwater horizon sunk, and the fed slowed way down on drilling permits, several rigs left the gulf. The crews left also. The crews that left learned that they could make tax free income outside the gulf, and many of them will not come back to the gulf now and take a 30%+ pay cut.
    The slow down in my opinion is more based on the availability of quality crew members. Send your kids off to get sub sea engineering degrees, they will do very well!!
    SDRL and RIG do not supply the crews, just the rigs. Once the market corrects, big oil will retool with available personnel. I would also buy HERO at these levels.
    Sep 8, 2014. 05:35 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hercules Offshore: Fleet Analysis As Of July 23 And Recent Second Quarter Results  [View article]
    I would add that demand, at least in the Gulf of Mexico is more tied to Natural Gas prices than crude at this time. Most of the near sure work (jackup) work is for work over activity on existing production facilities.
    HERO needs NG prices to stabilize, and then it still may take a quarter or two for demand to pick up significantly. However, government approval for LNG exports would immediately spike Gulf Coast NG demand. If that happens, and I think it will within 18 months, expect HERO to be a $40 stock again.
    Jul 24, 2014. 06:20 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Denbury Resources Has 50% Upside Based Favorable Valuation Metrics  [View article]
    If you like DNR, you ought to love EPM. EPM owns 27% of DNR's Delhi field. I suspect you will get one share on DNR for each EPM share you buy now. EPM is around 12.85.
    Jan 21, 2014. 07:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Mississippian Trust I: A Forecast Of Future Distributions  [View article]
    There are a few things missing here.

    The biggest one is how Chemical and CO2 based EOR has responded in other horizontal shale plays in the area. Production on average has responded 4 to 6X after Chemical surfactants are injected into the fields. Your assuming about 10-15% OOIP production. When other operators in the area are at 80%.

    You are assuming that NO technological advancements will take place over the next 10 years. There where ZERO shale plays 10 years ago.

    The OOIP numbers have not changes for any of these wells, infact, it has slightly increased. Your evalutation ignores all the advancements that have taken place over the past few years.

    CO2 and Chemical EOR should conservatively quadruple and most like 10X the production of all of these wells over the next 15 years.
    Dec 10, 2013. 11:12 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Earnings Mediocrity  [View article]
    I remember my friends making fun of me for standing in line for the first Ipad. I got that one right. I think I still have APPL right.

    Wallstreet keeps saying "when is the next new thing", I want a new thing.

    Fact of the matter is, the newest, most game changing thing in 3 years just quietly went out into the market. Those without vision totally missed it.

    That little finger print sensor on the 5S will be the biggest game changer in 3 years. Soon your phone will be all your passwords, all your locks, all your credit cards, and for that matter, your whole life and identity. Oops, I bet you missed that point. That fingerprint technology will generate more income than iTunes. Just wait.

    Keep selling AAPL. More shares for the $200B they will be buying back over the next 12 months.
    Oct 29, 2013. 06:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Smith & Wesson beats by $0.04, beats on revenue  [View news story]
    The company is willing to buy back your shares at $11, yet its trading after hours below $10.90.
    Sep 5, 2013. 05:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The New York City Employees' Retirement System becomes the third pension fund to sell its stake in gun makers Sturm Ruger (RGR -0.8%) and Smith & Wessen (SWHC -0.3%) following the nightmarish school shooting in Connecticut. CalSTRS and New York's Teacher's Retirement System sold their shares in January and February respectively. Comptroller John Liu says the company's products "tear apart families and shatter communities." ( Reuters[View news story]
    Wonder what their law enforcement uses in New York. Bloomberg would suggest a Johnson & Johnson product. I am buying RGR today. 4% secure dividend and solid growth. I feel bad for the New York teachers. They deserve better.
    May 8, 2013. 02:03 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GE Capital (GE +2.5%) cuts off lending to gun shops in response to public backlash since the Sandy Hook shootings. Though the company isn't the first financial firm to back away from involvement with the gun industry, the development puts the spotlight back on sellers such as Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS -0.4%), Wal-Mart (WMT -1.2%), and Cabela's (CAB +0.9%) which could see more foot traffic. It's also of interest to gun manufacturers Smith & Wesson (SWHC +0.8%) and Sturn Ruger (RGR -0.8%) - wallowing around with relatively low P-E ratios with future demand tough to forecast.  [View news story]
    I don't know how GE does in other business segments, but were I work, Hydril used to be the pressure control systems king in the oil field. Then GE bought them. Since then, NOV has tripled its business in pressure control and Cameron has doubled its business. No one talks about Hydril anymore. GE ran them into the ground.
    Apr 25, 2013. 04:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Still Has A Bright Future  [View article]
    At this point in time, they could come up with a cure for cancer, it would not matter. The damage is done. There reputation is destroyed now. Managements total lack of respect for share holder value has already destroyed this company. It will break itself apart in about two years to save some value. Eventually, it will be called iTunes Inc.
    Feb 21, 2013. 07:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Stocks With A History Of Downside Earnings Surprises Show Encouraging Sales Trends  [View article]
    2014 Production average estimates are 11,800 Barrels/day. Except for a period last summer, Delhi has exceeded its expectations.

    The forward curve for 2014 has Brent Crude north of $120/Barrel.

    CO2 and other costs for 2014 are estimated to be between $50M and $60M.

    Quick calculation of 2014 Delhi Earning Estimate

    11,800 BBL/Day * 365 Day * .24 interest = 1,033,680 Net Barrels to EPM share holders in 2014

    @ $120/Barrel is $124M.

    Net Cost = $60M * .24 interest =$14M

    Net Profit = $110M Float of 18.13M = $6.07/Share.

    Apply a reasonable price to earnings ratio of 8, and that values EPM $48/share
    Feb 7, 2013. 03:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
10 Comments
17 Likes