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Elgrey

Elgrey
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  • Crude Oil: A Bounce Is On The Horizon [View article]
    This fall is politically driven. Politics is pushing down the price and it will continue to do that until political objectives won't be met. Be realists - the fall of such magnitude (minus 40% and counting in such a fundamental asset) can never be caused by overproduction, shale revolution and other crap. Go read history, oil crush in 1980s and learn the lesson. The history repeats itself.

    Whenever you hear that Islamic State and Russia are no longer threats - that will be the time to come back.
    Dec 9, 2014. 05:14 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas: The Selling Continues But Winter Has Not Yet Begun [View article]
    I guess most of your points are valid but you are too harsh in my opinion. I also note that El Nino factor is being overlooked but I do not state my disagreement so fiercely. You can always write your own article.

    My opinion is that market should pacify in order for fundamentals to start working properly. Cause if this won't happened and insane volatility continues - $1 up this week and $1 down in two weeks and so on then who on Earth needs these fundamentals?
    Dec 8, 2014. 01:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • NatGas Crushed Amid Warm December, Oversupply Risks Grow [View article]
    Watch Baken and Hughes weekly report
    Dec 7, 2014. 08:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NatGas Crushed Amid Warm December, Oversupply Risks Grow [View article]
    Natgas is coming from oil rigs too and lots of it. So you need to watch the sum of oil and natgas rigs and this number has not decreased.
    Dec 5, 2014. 08:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NatGas Crushed Amid Warm December, Oversupply Risks Grow [View article]
    He is seldom right. I use his opinion to do the opposite. I bet he is not buying or selling otherwise he would be broke a million times.
    Dec 5, 2014. 08:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NatGas Could Spike Much Higher If Cold Pattern Holds [View article]
    Coming inventory report will be a monster, no doubt - 130, 150, 200 place your bets! But this is a fact that has been in the air and has been priced in partially.

    To prove my point I want to refer to last report - if some of you watched market closely last Thursday when withdrawal of 17 units was announced you should notice the following - market jumped up and fell back to pre-report levels in mere 5 minutes! Prices continued falling for next several hours then got bumped by daily weather update and from that point the fall was non-stop and cost nearly 10% of the price of natgas!

    What it tells us is that the market has tired up and without bad weather news the prices would crash no matter what report would be. Do not forget that fundamental picture is not that bullish - deficit of last year was nearly offset by good supply and supply remains healthy while demand is a volatile figure. Now deficit spreads but should weather pacify the record production will narrow the gap again.

    Recall natgas prices of last week of October - 3.65. Peak was at 4.55 just days ago - this is 90 cents jump up or 25% increase in less than a month. To sustain such moves the news must be monstrous for extended period of time. Do not open up champagne yet. This is my point.
    Nov 23, 2014. 10:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Surprise: Speculators Are Long Oil [View article]
    I look at net position in COT options and futures report. June net position of Speculators - 460-470k, today - 290k. And if I look at last ten weeks then - were 3 weeks when net position was lower - 284k, 282k, 285k and 6 weeks when net position was higher. It does not prove anything yet. Sell-off slowed down that's it. But not the turnaround, sell-off can resume any moment.

    Come on, do you not notice how huge political component in oil is? Have political tensions been resolved? In "No" than why are you betting your money on oil now? If you want to get rid of them you can just wire them to me.

    And I cannot recall COT report when speculators were short oil. The shortest position I have seen is 15k long.
    Nov 18, 2014. 10:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cold Weather Projections Drive UNG Higher [View article]
    I guess this article is like 10 days late.
    Nov 13, 2014. 04:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's The Real Story Of Why Oil Plunged This Year [View article]
    Both yes. Else you live on Mars not Earth
    Nov 9, 2014. 10:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's The Real Story Of Why Oil Plunged This Year [View article]
    This is war against Putin and IS. So forget about your charts. Oil was overpriced and overproduced for a long time. The story happened exactly when economic warfare had to come into play. Read history - oil pricees in 80s and collapse of the USSR.
    Nov 7, 2014. 07:34 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Oil Fall Below $80? [View article]
    That was a pure hysteria about oil. Today is more of a mix of oversupply and politics.
    Oct 30, 2014. 04:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Can UNG Go? [View article]
    Historically, 3rd week of October is the point when prices often start to head south. I just reconstructed my position from neutral strangle into bearish one.
    Oct 14, 2014. 11:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buying Opportunity For Sugar? [View article]
    Price of sugar was between 5 and 10 cents most of the time between 2000 and 2007. Do not rush out to claim bottoms as fundamentals remain bearish. Check Unica reports before making bullish calls - last year was a year of super production but this year even beats it. Not to mention that funds and other speculators increase their short position week on week as COT report shows. Do not spit against the wind, you are going to waste your money betting on price revival.
    Sep 17, 2014. 10:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Changed Direction Again - Will It Remain Range Bound? [View article]
    Interesting. I bet the peaks on that charts are the periods when prices doubled over just a month or so.
    Sep 9, 2014. 11:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Changed Direction Again - Will It Remain Range Bound? [View article]
    Lior, correct me if I am wrong but NG is always in very steep contango. So, I would not rely on this particular factor factor in case of this particular commodity.
    Sep 9, 2014. 09:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
139 Comments
132 Likes