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Elgrey

Elgrey
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  • Natural Gas Poised To Slide: That's Good If You Are A Buyer [View article]
    A bit of history.

    There were only 3 occasions when storage levels dropped so hard during last decades. All 3 times this happened during March. And all 3 times prices behaved differently from March till June - one time they went up, next time they dropped, third time they stuck in the range. I do not remember the years but you can download historical storage report from EIA site and check prices for 3 years of severe drops.

    However, it worth mentioning that Nat Gas spiked hard at winter only once on these 3 occasions and afterwards it fell hard during spring. Other 2 times there were no spikes during winter.
    Mar 23 11:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Tries To Form A Bottom [View article]
    Look at the chart - it is a nice example of Fibonacci cycle:
    Wave 1 - Nov - mid Dec
    Wave 2 - ended around mid Jan
    Wave 3 - ended around early Feb
    Wave 4 - ended around 10th Feb
    Wave 5 - ended around 20th Feb
    Wave A - ended around 1 Mar
    Now it is Wave B (correction up) to be followed by last Wave C down and than cycle will be over.
    Fundamentally speaking heating days will be over soon and inventories will start to build up soon.
    Just a thought.
    Mar 9 10:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Opportunistically Invest In Cocoa [View article]
    Yes, the report by CFTC. Best source to understand COT reports is Larry Williams' book about COT report, forgot the name but you can google it. Most important group to watch is Commercials - businesses that use cocoa not speculate it. These guys know what is happening for real and they go long/short for fundamental reasons. However, other groups, speculators in particular are also important as they are the ones who earn money by "shaking the boat" - short-term fluctuations are on their account. Also, there are plenty of websites but they are too novice in my opinion. In any event - never rely on COT report alone, you may loose money. It is a good indicator but certainly not the one that can guarantee gains.
    Feb 26 08:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Opportunistically Invest In Cocoa [View article]
    Do not rush, cocoa bull party end may be just around the corner:
    1) Prices increased by one third since last June;
    2) crop is not that bad at all;
    3) certified stocks of cocoa in US keep on rising for 3 months in a row;
    4) speculators have been extremely long cocoa for many months. They should start fixing profits. Check commitments of traders report.
    Feb 25 01:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Low Inventories Buoy Cocoa; Growing Stocks Weigh On Coffee, Cotton And Sugar [View article]
    I don't think so. Judging on future price trends by looking at contango and backwardation is a path to nowhere. Metals are in contango but still fall. Think of the accumulation by funds as an indicator. But from my observations CT is too volatile and unpredictable to follow any logic as among other things it is strongly affected by events in India and Pakistan. And these two markets are far from being transparent.
    Jan 8 08:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Low Inventories Buoy Cocoa; Growing Stocks Weigh On Coffee, Cotton And Sugar [View article]
    Speaking of Cocoa - I do not think it is wise to buy cocoa right now. As outlined, funds piled into cocoa and they accumulated a huge long position not only for a year or two but for te whole history of data accumulation by CFTC!!! They accumulate futures and futures do not pay divdends. Instead futures expire. Can you imagine what will happen when expiration will be near and funds will closing their super-bullish position? Second, Ivory Coast crop arrivals at port are 30% ahead of last year schedule and Harmattan wind is not strong this year which helps crops to develop. Third, warehouse inventories in the US grown in Decemeber (unlike previous months). Fourth, many traders are technicials and from technical perspective one may conclude that market passed 5 wave of Fibonacci cycle and is due to decline. I suspect this decline will be followed by growth to 2800 levels and then even stronger drop will end this cycle.

    Personally I closed my shorts today. There could be a further fall but cocoa have lost USD200 from its highs so I chose to book profits.
    Jan 2 09:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Prices Rise As Inventories Peak Below 2012's Record Highs [View article]
    I do not have any position in NG today but I have bearish thoughts about it. In my opinion bullish rally has come to end. Recent days trading volumes were shrinking pointing that there are less buyers.
    Nov 17 11:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Natural Gas Continue To Tumble? [View article]
    Utter tosh. People make millions with TA. Go read Larry Williams and Jack Schwager. They made tons of money and TA was one of the focal tools in their inventory. Market are traded by people so sentiment will be there all the time.

    When you understand TA you will notice that when fundamental events coinside with technical milestones the breakthroughs in market prices become just phenomenal. One day may potentially feed you for the rest of the year.
    Nov 7 08:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Natural Gas Continue To Tumble? [View article]
    I quit my shorts in NGF4 at 3.495 and want to see further developments. In my view natgas is at Fibonacci wave 4 of a descending cycle. I guess if something bearish (like beasrish inventory report on Thursday) will happen than we are going to see wave 5 taking NGF4 back to 3.40-3.45 area. Otherwise current techincal picture will prove to be an inverse head and shoulders pattern with only one last leg up pending. So my belief is that Nov 7 report could be a game changer. We shall see. I have mixed thought about natgas, we are at severely oversold levels. Refraining from trade could be a wise solution.
    Nov 6 08:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Bounces Off Support, Buy Ahead Of Potential Move To $4 [View article]
    I want to clarify - I am pretty sure that prices will rise in a medium run. However, we are not at the point to call the bottom in my opinion. If we talk of 4-6 months perspective then we need to look at 6-8 month charts. If we talk of 1-2 months future then we need to consider 2-3 month charts. Apple to apple so to speak. I am talking of 1 month horizon.
    From now on I will be speaking in terms of NGF4 contracts (nat gas Jan 2014) price behaviour from Aug up to now. Open respective chart and follow my logic. NG was at $4 just 10 days ago - that was a local top. Now prices turned south and upon reaching it (I am thinking of 3.6-3.65) the uptrend will resume. We had two tops in mid of Sep and mid of Oct and a bottom in the end of Sep - now we are at the point of developing last leg down and then the uptrend will resume.
    There is a chance that I am running ahead of the train and pattern will not develop to the levels I want (3.60) but I am short since 17 of Oct and this was a right move so far. Also, historical trends point at this locat top in the middle of Oct and further going south. This is a strong indicator to stick to short side of the trade. On the side note - in September I was long NG basing on historical pattern and anticipating price pullback after severe drop and I was right.

    In my opinion going long is a bit early. Bears party is still in play.
    Oct 25 12:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Bounces Off Support, Buy Ahead Of Potential Move To $4 [View article]
    It looks like your 6-10 days NOAA map is outdated. Current one is way more bearish, especially for Texas, one of major NG consuming states.

    Your last chart can also be interpreted differently if you observe period from early Aug till now - a reversed head and shoulders pattern will point on further drop in prices lasting possibly till mid - 2nd half of December.

    Also, one can argue that descent from end of April until mid of Aug was a 5 wave Fibo move and uptrend from mid Aug to mid of Oct was a correcting cycle of 3 waves and now new descending cycle begun. You can bring a million of different technical arguments opposite in nature.

    But historical trend for last 20+ years was very strong - natgas was going down from Oct into Dec. And we shall see if this rule holds in 2013.

    P.S. And I am short NG for a couple of weeks at least.
    Oct 24 11:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What It Really Costs To Mine Silver: The Silver Standard Resources Edition [View article]
    But it also worth mentioning that no matter what results we get from crunching numbers and reading companies reports, markets can respond differently, bear markets I mean. When such market trends happen companies go bankrupt but eventually things stabilize of course. So do not be surprised if you would not see fast returns, esp bearing in mind how long the bull run lasted in recent years. Returns will come but timing is always an issue, it can never be predicted reliably.
    Sep 9 09:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What It Really Costs To Mine Silver: The Silver Standard Resources Edition [View article]
    Agree, I was doing the math using Hecla books and I got similar results. I posted them in my blog on SA.
    Sep 9 12:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Natural Gas Hit $4? [View article]
    Seasonal charts suggest NG bottoms late Aug - early Sep before recovery till early-mid October. My 2 cents.
    Sep 5 10:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Silver And Silver Wheaton Bounce Back? [View article]
    I wonder why CME is reluctant to introduce daily price limits to limit wild price swings... They have price limits everywhere except for PMs
    Jun 27 09:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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