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Elgrey

Elgrey
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  • Grains: Awakenings [View article]
    Hello Andy. Thank you for the article. Do you not think prices shoot up too fast too soon? To me they go parabolic these days. Also, I do not see much fundamental reasoning for that - rains did not cause damage, not to the extent prices reacted so far. Although markets sometimes act irrationally. RSI went mad, Bollinger Bands breached on the upper level. Lot's of news state funds short-covering in wheat but when I look at CFTC report - yes, funds are net short but they are only half short of what they were a couple of months ago and they covered those shorts weeks ago! Not to mention that funds are net short wheat most of the time. To me it looks like a hype, unexplainable and irrational. But I can be wrong and emotional. What do you think?
    Jun 29, 2015. 09:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Is The Only Commodity I Want To Own Right Now [View article]
    Be careful with longs. Not everything is so rosy for bulls:

    - Coal price declined this year too. It declined by +/-10% margin which is more or less the same margin by which NG price changed, thus limiting NG's upside.

    - To continue coal's subject - year-on-year less coal is used for power generation due to various reasons (pollution, price, transportation and storage). Thus, the factor of substitution is weaker every year and NG takes bigger share of production (without drastic price moves). And most electricity from coal is generated in Texas, California and NY rely more on electricity produced from gas. So substitution for coal would be weaker in CA and NY in any event. OK, enough coal.

    - I agree with your statement regarding 1/3 of production coming from oil rigs. But rigs production volumes is different - there is talk already that cutting rigs numbers by half won't cut production by half, no way. But you know it better than me.

    - Oil rigs fall is slowing down. Or nearly stopped. Choose either statements depending on your positioning.

    - Weather. Do not have a crystal ball but El Nino summers in the US are usually mild and wet. Recall last summer.

    Bottomline - closed my shorts on late 8th or early 9th of June (depending on where are you are - I am in Hong Kong, 12 hours ahead of NY). Thinking to re-enter shorts above 3.00 when bulls start to show fatigue on daily charts. Instruments - selling September calls with 3.50 strike.

    Good luck.
    Jun 11, 2015. 12:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • NatGas Traders Anticipate Big Inventory Builds As Winter Quickly Fades [View article]
    Guys, you are too focused on fundamentals and exclude technical factors and market sentiment from the picture entirely. This is not right. Market is undecided. If you extrapolate the storage and the prices of a year ago and two years ago (remember that fracking was there with us already) you see that market has had a strong bearish bias already! In other words there is a big fat chance that smart bears got their prey already but newcomer bears will stay hungry. I do not intend (ok I do a little) to advertise myself but please go read the latest post of my blog re natgas.
    Mar 23, 2015. 08:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NatGas Traders Anticipate Big Inventory Builds As Winter Quickly Fades [View article]
    It is time to buy when public sells.

    Besides, you do not read COT but I do. Otherwise you would have noticed that funds buy in March without making much noise.

    And historically speaking buying natgas in early March and holding it for a month+ has been a successful trade in 75% of the cases over last 25 years.

    But who am I to interfere when we have big brains here suggesting $2? Let them lose money. Again.
    Mar 20, 2015. 10:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fizzling Cocoa Rally Opportunity For Shorts [View article]
    James, thanks for your wonderful book. Speaking of cocoa fully support your view.
    Mar 13, 2015. 11:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas: March Comes In Like A Lion [View article]
    Just as much as I strongly disagreed with you on cocoa I do agree with you on natgas
    Mar 9, 2015. 09:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Poised For Extended Rally As Bears Have Overplayed Their Hand [View article]
    It looks like you are one of a few reasonable people on SA who do actually understand pricing of energy products.

    I was surprised to see your bearish articles back in 2014 cause you were nearly the only one who made me a company - I was bearish NG since summer for different reasons but they appeared to be just the same things but stated in different wordings or looked from a slightly different angle, if you will. And now I see you bullish just a week after I went long NG! What a pleasant surprise))) See if this coincidence will work this time.

    Good luck with your articles and your trading. You are doing a good job.
    Feb 26, 2015. 08:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cocoa Fundamentals Support Higher Prices [View article]
    Olam's boss comments worth nothing. It is his business to sell and he tries to inflate the price on every occasion. A few days ago he stated that coffee would not pierce under 1.60 levels. And yesterday it did. Same about cocoa - instead of listening to this hype of growing demand in China you guys should come down to China and see what "chocolate" they sell here and who buys it. This is a substance with low content of cocoa, down to 30%. This stuff does not require much of cocoa to make. And who buys it? I live in Hong Kong since 2004 and I never noticed choco-fever in locals buying behavior. So please, do not buy this stupid talk. It is pretty much the same as "property prices will never go down".

    Real supply and demand is the only thing that matters. And if you want to test my words - study COT report and see who is long and who is short cocoa. Today commercial users (true hedgers) are mostly short and the parties who are long are managed money (funds) and swap traders (banks). They feed you this story of shortages and growing prices. This is the real picture.
    Feb 18, 2015. 08:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas: Commitment Of Traders Analysis [View article]
    I suggest you to read Larry Williams book on COT analysis. It will be a great deal of improvement in your analysis. In fact, relative to their past positioning NG speculators have been terribly bearish for quite a while. Surprise, surprise when think of last months prices direction downwards)))

    Also, look deeper into groups breakdown - commercials consist of industrial users and swap dealers who are not direct users strictly speaking. Also, non-commercial users are broken down into managed money (slow heavyweights like Blackrock) and others (CTAs etc, these are quick sharks). Some groups take position and wait, true hedgers, true investors. Others, like CTAs, come to 'shake the boat' if you will - they create public opinion, gossips, hysteria etc.

    I spent several years analyzing COT and I can tell you - it is not a crystal ball. Sometimes big guys come to corner markets and they succeed in doing that. You need additional tools in your analysis, can't rely on COT alone. But COT is a great tool, especially for players with long horizons.

    Happy New Year.
    Dec 31, 2014. 02:12 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil: A Bounce Is On The Horizon [View article]
    This fall is politically driven. Politics is pushing down the price and it will continue to do that until political objectives won't be met. Be realists - the fall of such magnitude (minus 40% and counting in such a fundamental asset) can never be caused by overproduction, shale revolution and other crap. Go read history, oil crush in 1980s and learn the lesson. The history repeats itself.

    Whenever you hear that Islamic State and Russia are no longer threats - that will be the time to come back.
    Dec 9, 2014. 05:14 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas: The Selling Continues But Winter Has Not Yet Begun [View article]
    I guess most of your points are valid but you are too harsh in my opinion. I also note that El Nino factor is being overlooked but I do not state my disagreement so fiercely. You can always write your own article.

    My opinion is that market should pacify in order for fundamentals to start working properly. Cause if this won't happened and insane volatility continues - $1 up this week and $1 down in two weeks and so on then who on Earth needs these fundamentals?
    Dec 8, 2014. 01:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • NatGas Crushed Amid Warm December, Oversupply Risks Grow [View article]
    Watch Baken and Hughes weekly report
    Dec 7, 2014. 08:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NatGas Crushed Amid Warm December, Oversupply Risks Grow [View article]
    Natgas is coming from oil rigs too and lots of it. So you need to watch the sum of oil and natgas rigs and this number has not decreased.
    Dec 5, 2014. 08:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NatGas Crushed Amid Warm December, Oversupply Risks Grow [View article]
    He is seldom right. I use his opinion to do the opposite. I bet he is not buying or selling otherwise he would be broke a million times.
    Dec 5, 2014. 08:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NatGas Could Spike Much Higher If Cold Pattern Holds [View article]
    Coming inventory report will be a monster, no doubt - 130, 150, 200 place your bets! But this is a fact that has been in the air and has been priced in partially.

    To prove my point I want to refer to last report - if some of you watched market closely last Thursday when withdrawal of 17 units was announced you should notice the following - market jumped up and fell back to pre-report levels in mere 5 minutes! Prices continued falling for next several hours then got bumped by daily weather update and from that point the fall was non-stop and cost nearly 10% of the price of natgas!

    What it tells us is that the market has tired up and without bad weather news the prices would crash no matter what report would be. Do not forget that fundamental picture is not that bullish - deficit of last year was nearly offset by good supply and supply remains healthy while demand is a volatile figure. Now deficit spreads but should weather pacify the record production will narrow the gap again.

    Recall natgas prices of last week of October - 3.65. Peak was at 4.55 just days ago - this is 90 cents jump up or 25% increase in less than a month. To sustain such moves the news must be monstrous for extended period of time. Do not open up champagne yet. This is my point.
    Nov 23, 2014. 10:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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