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Elgrey
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Expat finance professional living and working in Hong Kong.
  • My July-13 Stretegy Review

    My apologies for not posting July review on time - the end of July was mad for me and I had too little free time. Anyway...

    My bet on Heating Oil finally shot up. But it was more of an unexpected event that driven it not fundamentals. Egypt lifted the whole energy sector so I should not be taking much of the credit for forecasting HO rally. It happened but for another reason.

    Cotton - nothing really happened to it while I expected a mild downtrend. Those who opened shorts on/about 10th of July got modest profit.

    Other than these two I did not expect much of the moves when I wrote my post. During the month I was shorting corn (from $5.30 to $4.95) and soymeal (from $495 to $430) when weather proved to be crop-friendly. I was also successful at selling strangles for coffee and gasoline but I lost money on oil strangle cause I missed the moment.

    I did not post any plans for August as I was going for vacations for almost 3 weeks. In fact I closed almost everything and did not pay much attention to markets. It feels so wonderful to leave without a leash in a form of smartphone, laptop, PC, charts, and market news :-)

    Aug 25 9:48 PM | Link | Comment!
  • My July-13 Strategy

    This month I am thinking about following commodities:

    Heating Oil - I talk about it since May and if I talk a bit more about finding bottom in HO this month (again), I guess I will start believing in it myself)))). But honestly speaking there is a strong rationale for that - buy cheap, sell high. Summer is the time. What keeps me worried is that even now HO prices are quite high. I am still waiting for HO to reach 2.60 but I do not rule out that this level won't be achieved - inventory levels of distillates are quite low and US exports a lot of finished petroleum products. I do not see soon price rallies but today could be the right time to go long for a long-term shot.

    Cotton - I am mildly bearish. Planting shows a stable picture. COT is still bearish. But the major rules breaker may finally stop shaking the market. I am talking about China. They got huge reserves of cotton already and lately there were serious statements about slowing growth pace in China. Domestic equity indices fell and same may happen to commodity interventions when China bought everything irrationally for future use in any quantities.

    Question marks:

    Wheat - wheat at the point where one may suggest a value zone. I want to say "go long" but I want to see more confirmations. At the moment market needs some sort of catalyst to shoot up.

    Cattle - same as wheat.

    Lumber - this commodity has been beaten lately. I believe that there is some room to go down. But the party is about to be over, selling was quite heavy during last weeks. We did not get good news from housing market and prices corrected to $3.00 zone.

    Rice - the price is hot now without much reasoning. I do not want to step in but in my opinion $16 is too much. We are yet to hear more weather news so the price may fell down.

    Oats - same as rice I do not want to step in I just express my hesitations that current prices coped with historical trends and COT levels, are elevated.

    Major wildcards in July as of now are Egypt and US weather. It's tricky, tricky, tricky...

    Jul 03 2:41 AM | Link | Comment!
  • My June-13 Strategy Review

    OK, let's have a brief review of June predictions:

    NG - current front contract opened June at 3.98 and finished at 3.565 just as I expected. I made good money on it.

    FC - another good resut. FC opened June at 144.175 and closed at 149.45.

    Silver - still finding its support. I am thinking that after my hedges expire I will not maintain the position.

    The month had three heavy-weighted events - Mr. Bernanke statement on QE end, civil war in Syria and new developments in agriculture. What they mean to our business is increased volatility. Today as I write this post we have another one - Egypt unrest. Oil broke above $102 during night trade. Welcome to July everybody. This one won't be calm.

    Jul 03 2:34 AM | Link | Comment!
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