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maddynuke

maddynuke
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  • A 7.6% Yield From A Strong Regional Utility [View article]
    More of the same-old same-old from the author, except that the stock price has dropped so the yield is higher. Read previous articles and you will see this is just a rehash.....not useful.
    Jan 8, 2014. 03:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Exit Exxon And Chevron Stock [View article]
    What planet are you on today? Sell oil company shares?

    XOM, COP, CVX have relatively low P/Es, good growth rates, and therefore low PEGs, and higher returns on investment ratios, low betas, very high predictability and stability, and are very safe investments, compared to DJIA, most S&P 500 companies, etc. Strong cash flow, integrated assets and production, some R&D focus, and multi-nation footprint that helps to stabilize any national upsets. The oil stock dividends are steady, based on a low payout ratio, and good EBIDTA. These big 3 oil companies are looking at ways to get natural gas production, vs. burning it off, and have been responsible environmentally over the past 2 decades or more.

    If you wanted to say something useful about price fluctuations within Bollinger bands, then it should be: "Buy when they dip low and hold long when inside or fluctuate slightly higher than upper Bollinger limit....capture some profits only when significantly above upper limit (perhaps more than 15%?) and buy on dips. Dollar cost averaging is suggested..."

    You said to sell and buy "more productive instruments" -what possible S&P 500 or big companies can you find anywhere with such strong stock? If your "instruments" are options, bonds, preferred shares, REITs, etc you are comparing apples and oranges.....
    Jan 6, 2014. 03:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exelon 38% Undervalued With A 5.4% Yield Based On Normalized Cash Flow [View article]
    Please, next time just provide the web site link rather than cut/paste the entire thing! Just give a list of the issues, and the link. We can click to read it. You just cluttered up your reply...so folks won't read it.... Your opinions are what we want to see, not just fully quoting entire article.

    Now, some of "facts" in the WSJ article are not really true. The EIA estimate for building a reactor in 6 years was for a current Generation II plant. The AP 1000 being built for SO will not take as long, in fact, 47 months. The Chinese are building their Westinghouse AP 1000 unit in years.
    Capital costs for nuclear plants are higher than natural gas or coal. BUT their fuel costs are huge and make them overall more expensive. The nuclear fuel costs for an operating plant are less than 9% of the total O&M costs. In fact, nuclear plants that have fully amortized their capital costs (i.e., run for years, and bonds paid off) now produce electricity at 3 cents/kwhr, vs. 5-6 cents/kwhr for nat gas and coal. Please go to the eia.gov site to see this information.....

    The MOX plant is being built and will be recycling American fuel soon.

    The helium gas cooled reactors and molten salt small reactors use TRISO fuel, which is graphite based, and contains uranium or thorium fuel kernels, that are coated with pyrolitic carbon layers and silicon carbide. The TRISO fuel can withstand extreme temperatures (1600 - 1800 C) during accidents, can be used to generate much more energy in terms of fuel burn-up or total mass of fuel expended, at least 3 times further than ANY current light water cooled reactor LWR. The TRISO fuel actually is in a BETTER condition for ultimate spent (waste) fuel storage than LWR fuel. The issue is that Yucca mountain was designed for LWR fuel only. If the TRISO fuel compacts (pellets) are removed from the graphite blocks, or TRISO fuel in pebble form are stored, the "waste" has less volume, more resilient features, than LWR waste. Please see the following links about TRISO fuel research, development and testing by DOE and its laboratories:
    http://bit.ly/1gtOuEP
    http://1.usa.gov/1gtOswv
    http://1.usa.gov/12jzW7b
    http://bit.ly/1gtOuV4
    The Idaho and Oak Ridge national labs completed 13 heat up tests to confirm that the irradiated, high burn-up TRISO fuel could survive 1600 C, 1700 C and 1800C, each for 300 hours! The silicon carbide coating layers survived. The second AGR fuel irradiation campaign was just finished last fall, and in 2014, the post-irradiation examinations and safety heat-up tests will be started. Stay tuned.
    Jan 2, 2014. 11:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Exelon 38% Undervalued With A 5.4% Yield Based On Normalized Cash Flow [View article]
    Thanks for your kind words, or forgive me for providing a long-winded but delineated list of issues that should have considered by the author.

    On the management/BOD increasing their own salaries, I did say I was trying to be diplomatic above. ;) Spastic was the kindest word I could use...

    The management BOD compensation committee voted their paychecks up by 100% based on "bench-marking" against other directors on boards, that were not even related to utilities industry......but certainly not "bench marking" against the same parameters for management performance...enough said. You can read all about their "results" and studies in the last annual report. Needless to say I was quite amazed by their sheer Chutzpah.
    Dec 31, 2013. 10:34 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exelon 38% Undervalued With A 5.4% Yield Based On Normalized Cash Flow [View article]
    Is your quoted coal price based on unfiltered emissions (no bag house, with lime and stuff to capture particulates) and no "clean coal" technology? If your local utilities have to back fit their coal plants to meet EPA standards and put in "clean coal" required systems, the price will be higher than nuclear....
    BTW, I always think that DOE's nomenclature of "clean coal" technology has been moronic. There is no such thing as CLEAN coal!! The slurry goop and bag house/lime particulate waste has to buried or stored somewhere. See the coal waste release at the Kingston plant in Soddy Daisy TN where the toxic coal waste/sludge escaped and destroyed a huge area:
    http://bit.ly/1dSfwDg
    Great pictures and history.
    And folks are worried about nuclear accidents! Look at this coal sludge mess and the heavy metal contamination, mess!!!
    Dec 31, 2013. 04:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exelon 38% Undervalued With A 5.4% Yield Based On Normalized Cash Flow [View article]
    Naive approach and too many errors in your analysis!! Get the yield correct please and recalculate!! Today's yield is 4.6% based on the $27.4 price. Also you need to look at the details about the natural gas consumption/prices in the annual reports and S&P SEC documents. EXC has long term contracts for natural gas and coal for years in advance, so they don't use spot market priced gas or coal.

    Exelon does have some of the characteristics presented but the author has failed to adjust his predictions using the following information:
    1. Exelon management seems to be spastic (I am being diplomatic here!!).
    2. EXC shares are low because of the Constellation buyout, and the purchase has yet to provide any good turn-around benefits.
    3. The EXC dividend has been cut, and may not be increased for at least 5 years, IMHO.
    4. The nuclear plant fleet that EXC has is huge, over a large geographic area, and so it cannot be centrally managed--each plant has its own culture, operations issues, etc. There may be some lessons-learned sharing, central fuel management, safety analyses centers in IL done at the main HQ, but each plant has a separate engineering team that does not interact with other EXC plants.
    5. Many of the nuclear plants that EXC has are older boiling water reactor designs (Dresden, Quad Cities, etc) and will have to make major capital improvements for the NRC-mandated upgrades post Fukishima Daiichi accident, including hardened venting, new piping, valves, etc. Big $$$$
    6. EXC management is NOT really committed to keeping their nuclear plants, see the shutdown of the 2 ZION units in IL as evidence. Those plants could have continued to operate, but....
    7. EXC has focused markets in depressed cities, rural areas that will take a long time to recover--Chicago, Baltimore, etc.
    8. The EXC nukes are base-load plants, built to handle a large electricity demand, that has shrunk down to 1990's levels. See recent EIA/DOE report about the dropping electricity consumption levels, and look at the regional data!! BTW, less electricity consumption is a good thing, brought on by non-incandescent light bulbs, energy star appliances, and folks using notebooks, ipads etc. vs. using desktop computers that are energy-sucking vipers.

    I am long EXC shares, but I bought them years ago at a $10/share cost basis. I considered selling today for tax issues, but why bother? Just hold the shares for another decade or 2. Maybe the management will change and environmental constraints become more helpful for EXC bottom line.

    BTW I have other utilities as well, but others put FE in as a choice utility---I wouldn't buy FE even if you gave me the money!! Worst nuclear operations in US
    Dec 31, 2013. 04:22 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Very Safe 6.3% Yielding Utility Issue [View article]
    The strain on the SO stock is NOT the nuclear plant construction--it is the COAL unit that has been delayed, changes made because of EPA rules that keep changing, etc. Check out the facts before you make speculations!!! The Vogtle plant units construction is going well, according to plan.
    Dec 30, 2013. 04:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Next Crash Is Coming... [View article]
    I am waiting for you to put the recent history and the stock market graph just before the great depression on the same plot, so show that they are tracking almost identically to "prove" that the market will crash. Just like the other dooms-day prophets. ...
    Dec 23, 2013. 12:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The U.S. Bankrupt? [View article]
    Part of the argument was that because the world's currency is in DOLLARS, we are ok since we have control over how many dollars we print, vs. Greece and Italy, Portugal, etc. who have Euros. Well, haven't you noticed that China and Russia are pushing to have the dollar removed as the world's reference currency?? What if China's yuan becomes de facto the reference currency? I don't think that is likely because the Chinese are not transparent, and the yuan is manipulated.

    The other flaw is that the US government owns the Federal workers, military pensions, and you are discounting from the debt !! Imagine what happens when thousands of federal employees and retired military don't get their fixed pensions, or FERS benefits when they have contributed to their pension funds!!!! Holy hell will happen!

    The pension debts should not be discounted. People are owed their own money (FERS) back, and those funds should not be used as collateral to fix the debt.
    Dec 20, 2013. 03:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Janssen strikes licensing deal for investigational Alzheimer's treatment [View news story]
    Note that Janseen Pharma is NOT JNJ!!!!!
    JNJ=Johnson and Johnson.

    Stupid mistake. Don't be confused!
    Dec 20, 2013. 03:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exelon: Selling At 10-Year Lows [View article]
    Bruce,

    I agree. I have bought/sold Exelon over the years. My current EXC holdings represent shares I bought before the splits in the early 1990s at the equivalent now of $2 per share!!! So I can be very patient....

    Since EXC has the largest nuclear fleet in the US (now over 1/5 of the entire number of plants) and has great operating results, I will still hold the shares.

    Now for FE, forget it! The nukes they have are always on the bottom of the operations curve....

    Long on EXC, D, DUK, DTE, SO, XEL, PEG, NEE, ETR who are the nuclear operators who know what they are doing.
    Dec 20, 2013. 03:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Triple Margin Of Safety Approach To Dividend Investing [View article]
    So where do high-quality, solid and safe utility shares fit into the picture? Are you advocating not having them as a good percentage of the portfolio?
    Dec 17, 2013. 02:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No Dead-Cat Bounce - A Dead-Serious Warning From Uranium [View article]
    I was thinking of BISMUTH....yikes..the coffee must not have done its magic and I must have had a brain fart. See the list:
    http://bit.ly/pIdgiY

    I stand humbly corrected...thanks for pointing out the terrible mistake.

    Beryllium is still a very toxic metal to work with so its use is limited to research reactors only.
    Dec 17, 2013. 01:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • These Nuclear Energy Stocks Could Be Next To Soar Like The Solar Sector [View article]
    Especially with the stupid notice from USEC today about possible/probable bankruptcy filing in early 2014....criminal behavior by management at USEC! This is not good for the uranium miners who have to have their product enriched to 4-5% U235 to have it used in power reactors. CCJ, Dennison should just sit on their mining assets and watch the USEC situation, TENEX down-blend etc. manipulate the price of uranium, and wait until the U price begins to rise on demand.
    Dec 16, 2013. 12:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • USEC intends to file for bankruptcy protection next year [View news story]
    I hope there is a class action suit that punishes the USEC management personally for this deception and theft!! Criminals, liars, and at least clueless managers!

    Perhaps they are playing "chicken" with DOE over the ACP funds at the expense of the long stock holders. We can't blame the "short" sellers for this plummeting stock price....
    Dec 16, 2013. 12:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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