"I think Netflix (NFLX +4.1%) could be this decade's Amazon," says Whitney Tilson in a Yahoo talk (video). Though Tilson admits to "trimming" his position during Netflix's run-up, he still considers it undervalued relative to other media providers - "They're trading at $400 per subscriber in a world of $1,000 per sub" - and argues its scale gives it a big edge - "Who else is going to spend $3 billion a year for streaming content?" Of course, many of the firms valued at $1,000/sub are getting a lot more than $8/month. Netflix investors seem to be betting the company's library and customer loyalty will allow it to raise prices over time. (U.K. deals) [View news story]
They are trading at 400 per sub vs 1000 per sub because they aren't getting much over 8 bucks a month while other companies can get over 100 a month
The Navy has 24 months to convince lawmakers to fund 28 additional ships (at a cost of $440M each) for its controversial Littoral Combat Ship program, even as an internal report says the vessels may be "ill-suited to execute" their warfighting directives. There are 24 of the ships already under contract with Lockheed Martin (LMT) and Austal (AUTLF.PK) and procuring the remainder of the planned 52 ship fleet may be a difficult sell as criticism mounts. [View news story]
100% agree. If there was a naval conflict situation with an actual respectable naval those tin cans would not last long. We are always preparing to fight the last war...well apparently they believe the only naval threat in the world is from Somali pirates. Ships last a long time in the Fleet, geopolitical situations can change quickly. Should be always prepared for the worst IMO.
The Navy has 24 months to convince lawmakers to fund 28 additional ships (at a cost of $440M each) for its controversial Littoral Combat Ship program, even as an internal report says the vessels may be "ill-suited to execute" their warfighting directives. There are 24 of the ships already under contract with Lockheed Martin (LMT) and Austal (AUTLF.PK) and procuring the remainder of the planned 52 ship fleet may be a difficult sell as criticism mounts. [View news story]
as a former military man this stuff really ticks me off. Let's send our sailors to sea in understrength naval vessels.....just a way for the political admirals to hand out 28 more "good cookie" captain billets.
5 Reasons Why I Am Shorting The Market [View article]
I highly recommend revising your ideas about shorting the market, not because I don't think it will come down (which I do). I recommend selling your longs and day trading in this market. Shorting is a poor strategy due to the overhead of simply shorting at all plus the possibility of calling it wrong, or at least wrong timeframe so they you'd be doubly in the hole.
If at this point you don't believe in it just trading it during the day will allow you the safety of not taking hits to the upside or downside on afterhours/premarket news. You also will be able to continue working your portfolio in a market you don't believe in.
Some Apple (AAPL) commentary: 1) Horace Dediu estimates the iPhone and iPad's component costs respectively rose 29% and 65% Y/Y in FQ2, well above rev. growth of 3% and 40%. This, along with a mix shift towards iPads, is mostly responsible for Apple's gross margin drop (rather than price pressure). 2) Tero Kuittinen sees similarities between 2013 Apple and 2007 Nokia. "The strongest parallel is in the weird way both companies started fighting the consumer preference for larger displays … and then dug in as margins began eroding rapidly." Tim Cook may have just hinted a bigger iPhone will eventually arrive. But how long will it take? (yesterday) [View news story]
kimbo while I respect your discipline holding Apple for so long you have way too many "too the moon" and "Apple to 1000" posts for you to have serious credibility in an honest debate about Apple's future. You were saying buy Apple at 700, 600, 500, 400 and if anyone took your advice they'd be absolutely crushed at this point. There is value in the company I agree but the market is the great equalizer and its pricing trouble. Trouble you must secretly agree with because you've lost half your buying power in under a year.
Some Apple (AAPL) commentary: 1) Horace Dediu estimates the iPhone and iPad's component costs respectively rose 29% and 65% Y/Y in FQ2, well above rev. growth of 3% and 40%. This, along with a mix shift towards iPads, is mostly responsible for Apple's gross margin drop (rather than price pressure). 2) Tero Kuittinen sees similarities between 2013 Apple and 2007 Nokia. "The strongest parallel is in the weird way both companies started fighting the consumer preference for larger displays … and then dug in as margins began eroding rapidly." Tim Cook may have just hinted a bigger iPhone will eventually arrive. But how long will it take? (yesterday) [View news story]
To preface my remarks I am not long or short AAPL I've owned both Samsung products and Apple products. I don't care about itunes or supposed ecosystems or the ability to adapt the Android platform in many ways. I own multiple computers and multiple smart phones. I simply don't see the value in Apple's much higher premium anymore. In the past I did see it but the distance has been closed so if Apple does not become realistic in their pricing they will continue to erode.
According to CME reports, J.P. Morgan accounted for nearly all of the physical gold sales at Comex in the last three months, writes blogger Mark McHugh. The sales, representing nearly 2M ounces, is 74% more gold than the U.S. Mint delivered through its American Eagle program in all of 2012. The very idea of "broad-based" selling is a farce, says McHugh. “One thing’s very clear: When it comes to selling physical gold, J.P. Morgan is acting alone.” [View news story]
very very interesting I'm no psychic but I'm willing to bet my entire trading account that JPM made much more money in the puts and shorts in gold and the GLD than they lost stimulating the gold price collapse. Mark this post down for record profits next quarter in JPM
A Daily Options Trading Strategy For High-Flying Stocks [View article]
my problem is always pulling the trigger too early on selling. My goal is always making .30 on each although I tend to trade in larger amounts of contracts...the one plus is even when I buy a little too early I'll always get the .30 pop generally within 10-20 minutes. Thanks for the extra tips though
Arena Faces A Convergence Of DEA And European Decisions [View article]
GreatGazoo.....
That is a comment that makes alot more sense to me than that the DEA is in bed with Vivus to somehow block a competitor. Thank you for the very intelligent post
Arena Faces A Convergence Of DEA And European Decisions [View article]
Oh give me a break! Look I have no dog in this fight currently but for crying out loud. So its a super secret plot with Vivus, the DEA, and Barak Obama to some how corner the multi-zillion dollar market in anti-obesity weight loss drugs? Really? Funny how I dunno like BMY or Merck or one of the big boys didn't buy Vivus if this blatant collusion was going on. So blatant that even you can obviously see right through it. I forgot how paranoid investing in biopharma drugs made people.
A little more on Apple: Implied FQ2 iPhone ASP of $613, down from FQ1's $641 (was emerging markets discounting or a mix shift to older iPhones the culprit?). iPad ASP was $449, down from FQ1's $467 (shift to iPad Mini). Mac ASP of $1,378, up from FQ1's $1,359. iTunes/Software/Services revenue +30% Y/Y to $4.11B. Accessories +15% to $1.38B. R&D spend +33% Y/Y to $1.12B, SG&A +14% to $2.67B. Cash balance stood at $145B at quarter's end, up from prior $137B. AAPL resumes trading, shares are up 5.4% AH. [View news story]
not short or long this one but does that seem like a huge lower guidance call to anyone else?
More on Netflix (NFLX): The company smashes estimates as it had no trouble adding to paid domestic and global subscriber totals. Netflix added 2.03M net domestic streaming subscribers in FQ1, compared to 2.05M last quarter and 1.7M a year ago. International subscribers came in at 1.02M, compared to 1.81M last quarter and 1.12M a year ago. DVD memberships dropped slightly to about 8M. The company issues FQ2 guidance of revenue of $665M-$673M and sees a jump in total members to 29.4M to 30.05M. NFLX +19.3% AH. (company letter .pdf) [View news story]
momentum traders for one.....its not really trading to fundamentals in my view, and momo trading can go on for a while
Investors Should Keep Netflix In Their Portfolios [View article]
"I think Netflix (NFLX +4.1%) could be this decade's Amazon," says Whitney Tilson in a Yahoo talk (video). Though Tilson admits to "trimming" his position during Netflix's run-up, he still considers it undervalued relative to other media providers - "They're trading at $400 per subscriber in a world of $1,000 per sub" - and argues its scale gives it a big edge - "Who else is going to spend $3 billion a year for streaming content?" Of course, many of the firms valued at $1,000/sub are getting a lot more than $8/month. Netflix investors seem to be betting the company's library and customer loyalty will allow it to raise prices over time. (U.K. deals) [View news story]
The Navy has 24 months to convince lawmakers to fund 28 additional ships (at a cost of $440M each) for its controversial Littoral Combat Ship program, even as an internal report says the vessels may be "ill-suited to execute" their warfighting directives. There are 24 of the ships already under contract with Lockheed Martin (LMT) and Austal (AUTLF.PK) and procuring the remainder of the planned 52 ship fleet may be a difficult sell as criticism mounts. [View news story]
The Navy has 24 months to convince lawmakers to fund 28 additional ships (at a cost of $440M each) for its controversial Littoral Combat Ship program, even as an internal report says the vessels may be "ill-suited to execute" their warfighting directives. There are 24 of the ships already under contract with Lockheed Martin (LMT) and Austal (AUTLF.PK) and procuring the remainder of the planned 52 ship fleet may be a difficult sell as criticism mounts. [View news story]
Why 'Dr. Doom' Is Buying Stocks (Why I Will Wait On Stock ETFs) [View article]
5 Reasons Why I Am Shorting The Market [View article]
If at this point you don't believe in it just trading it during the day will allow you the safety of not taking hits to the upside or downside on afterhours/premarket news. You also will be able to continue working your portfolio in a market you don't believe in.
Some Apple (AAPL) commentary: 1) Horace Dediu estimates the iPhone and iPad's component costs respectively rose 29% and 65% Y/Y in FQ2, well above rev. growth of 3% and 40%. This, along with a mix shift towards iPads, is mostly responsible for Apple's gross margin drop (rather than price pressure). 2) Tero Kuittinen sees similarities between 2013 Apple and 2007 Nokia. "The strongest parallel is in the weird way both companies started fighting the consumer preference for larger displays … and then dug in as margins began eroding rapidly." Tim Cook may have just hinted a bigger iPhone will eventually arrive. But how long will it take? (yesterday) [View news story]
Some Apple (AAPL) commentary: 1) Horace Dediu estimates the iPhone and iPad's component costs respectively rose 29% and 65% Y/Y in FQ2, well above rev. growth of 3% and 40%. This, along with a mix shift towards iPads, is mostly responsible for Apple's gross margin drop (rather than price pressure). 2) Tero Kuittinen sees similarities between 2013 Apple and 2007 Nokia. "The strongest parallel is in the weird way both companies started fighting the consumer preference for larger displays … and then dug in as margins began eroding rapidly." Tim Cook may have just hinted a bigger iPhone will eventually arrive. But how long will it take? (yesterday) [View news story]
According to CME reports, J.P. Morgan accounted for nearly all of the physical gold sales at Comex in the last three months, writes blogger Mark McHugh. The sales, representing nearly 2M ounces, is 74% more gold than the U.S. Mint delivered through its American Eagle program in all of 2012. The very idea of "broad-based" selling is a farce, says McHugh. “One thing’s very clear: When it comes to selling physical gold, J.P. Morgan is acting alone.” [View news story]
A Daily Options Trading Strategy For High-Flying Stocks [View article]
Arena Faces A Convergence Of DEA And European Decisions [View article]
That is a comment that makes alot more sense to me than that the DEA is in bed with Vivus to somehow block a competitor. Thank you for the very intelligent post
Arena Faces A Convergence Of DEA And European Decisions [View article]
A little more on Apple: Implied FQ2 iPhone ASP of $613, down from FQ1's $641 (was emerging markets discounting or a mix shift to older iPhones the culprit?). iPad ASP was $449, down from FQ1's $467 (shift to iPad Mini). Mac ASP of $1,378, up from FQ1's $1,359. iTunes/Software/Services revenue +30% Y/Y to $4.11B. Accessories +15% to $1.38B. R&D spend +33% Y/Y to $1.12B, SG&A +14% to $2.67B. Cash balance stood at $145B at quarter's end, up from prior $137B. AAPL resumes trading, shares are up 5.4% AH. [View news story]
Notable earnings before Tuesday’s open: ACI, AKS, AOS, APD, ARMH, CIT, CNC, COH, DAL, DD, DFS, EAT, ECA, FMER, FRX, GCI, GNTX, IDXX, IIVI, IR, IRWD, ITW, JCI, JNS, LCC, LECO, LMT, LXK, MOLX, PCAR, PCH, PII, PMT, PNR, R, RAI, RF, RSH, SNV, ST, TRV, UTX, WAT, XRX [View news story]
More on Netflix (NFLX): The company smashes estimates as it had no trouble adding to paid domestic and global subscriber totals. Netflix added 2.03M net domestic streaming subscribers in FQ1, compared to 2.05M last quarter and 1.7M a year ago. International subscribers came in at 1.02M, compared to 1.81M last quarter and 1.12M a year ago. DVD memberships dropped slightly to about 8M. The company issues FQ2 guidance of revenue of $665M-$673M and sees a jump in total members to 29.4M to 30.05M. NFLX +19.3% AH. (company letter .pdf) [View news story]