Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View john46's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Apple, Google And GE - Which One Of These Things Is Not Like The Others [View article]
    Michael Blair - You are absolutely on target. Although I have owned Apple for 10 years having bought it at a split adjusted $8.10/share I agree that Apple's P/E is reflective of the possibility that someone will come to market with a superior cell phone and then what happens.
    Apple needs to diversify and show consistent growth in eps. If not the P/E will continue to flounder.
    Apr 10 07:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My 2013 Investment Game Plan: A Mid-Year Review [View article]
    Holding cash and bonds will produce negatrive real returns going forward. Energy holdings will likely underperform again. I find the list somewhat boring. Always holding Gold - why??????????? As we saw recently the price is manipulated by a few and it produces no income. Since there are no fundamental ways to analyze why hold it constantly. When you lose 1/3 of its value in a month, isn't that to much beta to hold in a conservative portfolio.
    Where is Health Care, Technology. Where were great insurance stocks like MET which were selling for a little over 50% of book on Jan. 1st and which went up over 50% in the 1st half. If your'e trying to make some money why use banks that are fully valued. See what Citigroup and BAC did during the last 6 months. BAC has a chance to still double in the next 2 years while Wells Fargo might move up 15% over that timeframe.
    And no technology except for AAPL which dropped by a third and INTC. Why not. And no health care. I own both AET and CI. Take a look at their performance during the 1st half.
    The game plan for the second half looks like it will underperorm again.
    Jul 3 11:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tech Titan Microsoft Rising ... For Now [View article]
    Tax scandals ?? You mean following the tax laws legally on behalf of it shareholders like me.
    You must think that Microsoft is part of the IRS that has been breaking the law. It is not.
    Jun 6 04:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Bearish On Seagate Technology & Western Digital [View article]
    I bought my shares of STX at $11 1/2 and $13 1/2 when the stock did not pay a dividend. Shortly thereafter they initiated a dividend of $1.00/share and then raised it twice to the current $1.52. Let's see based on an average cost of $12.50 and a dividend of $1.52 that works out to a dividend yield of 12.16% on my cost and I am up 3.7 times.
    The stock is selling for about 7x earnings. At 10x the stock will be $60.00.
    Every stock does not have to fit into a cute little box with earnings growing quarter after quarter in order to make some nice profits.
    When Cramer and every other Analyst was saying that HPQ was dead last year with the stock selling for $14 1/2 and selling for 4x earnings some of us were buying the shares. P.S. The last I looked it was over $24.
    Contrarian investing sometimes produces huge profits over short periods when the herd and big institutions are WRONG. But it's good when the herd is done selling because without the oversold conditions they create, it would not present the buying opportunities.
    May 28 05:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Newly public ING U.S. (VOYA) is up 20% since its IPO 2 weeks ago, but only trades at 60% of book value compared to the average life insurer (MET, HIG, PRU) selling for near book, writes Andrew Bary. Not only that, but the company is misunderstood - it's more retirement-services specialist and asset manager (think PFG) than life insurer, and should command an even higher valuation. What's more the seller (ING) was forced by regulators to do so against its will, the ING CEO calling it a "significant destruction of capital." Spinoff & Reorg Profiles - rarely a fan of promoted IPOs - think's it's worth $31. With an easily digestible $6B market cap, it might be worth even more to an acquirer. [View news story]
    HIG is trading at just over $ 31 which is a far cry from its book value of over $45.00. Although the other two have moved up considerably over the last 6 months they still trade a over 20% under book, not the almost at book the writer states. How about writing accurate articles !!!
    May 20 12:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should You Buy Nokia Instead Of Apple? [View article]
    You should hold onto your APPL and buy NOK as an unlimited time period option for $5/share.
    Mar 23 01:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should You Buy Nokia Instead Of Apple? [View article]
    Although Nokia is somewhat of a crapshot at this point, remember that they have a pile of cash and still sell an enormous number of phones overseas.
    I bought Apple in 2001 when it was a "crappy company". I bought it because it was selling for $16/share before a 2:1 split and it had $14.50 in cash at the time.
    Nokia still has an enormous following across the Ocean and in January won the award for best phone in the a national Electronics show.
    So for a little over $5,000 I picked up an initial 1,000 shares. Since it has $2.64/sh in cash, it is not a great gamble and who knows what the future holds.
    By the way I still have my Apple which is up 75x and worth 600k.
    Can Nokia do the same. Absolutely not. But can one make a decent amount of money on it. Absolutely possible as an unlimited call option at $5/share.
    Mar 23 01:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seagate Technology: A Sell As Hard Drive Shortage Easing And Valuations Dangerously High [View article]
    Consensus normalized eps of at least $6/sh going forward. A recent initiation of a dividend and a subsequent increase to $1.00/share. The company indicating that they want to reduce the share count by 25% through buybacks. One less player in the industry which may increase the abbility to sustain pricing.
    And another writer who has no oar in the water through ownership of shares. If the author really bvelieves what he is writing, at least short the shares. No guts, just the ability to hang out with his buddies and say that he published this "great" article.
    And as for his quoting the consesus analysts; guess what they are wrong more times than they are right.
    P.S. I bought STX at betwen 12 1/2 and 14 1/2 last year when every analyst was bashing the company. How'd that work out.
    Mar 22 04:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Warning Signs of a Modern Depression: See 1990 Japan [View article]
    The situation is far from similiar to what Japan's was in 1990. Corporate America, when you remove the Financial and Building related stocks are in excellent financial shape. Dividend increases exceeded 11% last year and corporate buybacks are significant.

    The problem with every administration going back 33 years is that there has been no energy policy. Ted Kennedy doesn't want windmills 5 miles off his coast. The huge oil find of the mid 1970's off California has been capped since the mid 70's without a drop of oil produced.

    The Senate and House prefer to spend their time interviewing Baseball players on steroids than they do in coming up with a concerted National effort to become as enery independent as possible. Why we are not equipping every high transmission line in this country with a wind turbine is mind boggling. Why we are not looking to create hydropower anywhere we can is distresing. Just think of the number of jobs that would be created here in the United States. We need government incentives and government mandates to achieve this.

    The problems in the financial markets are almost entirely because of greed. It is similiar to the reason why Enron, Adelphia, etc occurred. Corporate CEO's need to spend less time golfing and attending black tie affairs and need to stay home and attend to managing their companies. We do need external board of directors on the boards of financial companies. The brokers create products to pump up commissions. They create extremely high risk products and peddle them to unsuspecting individuals.

    The bankers go along for 10 years making a nice profit for their shareholders, but then want to get that last additional dollar in profits. And they do what they always do. They take undue risk and it smashes in their face. Their Yale and Harvard degrees become worthless. They need to teach how not to be greedy and learn what risk-reward is. Is that stretching of standards worth the added risk rather than incremental potential reward for an undue amount of risk.

    Those that do not perform need to be dismissed. Seven and eight figure compensation packages need to be eliminated and contracts need to be for pay for performance. But not on an annual basis but over time. Performance over 5 or ten years.

    Our government also needs to stop working like it's a beauty contest and start governing. They need to be more efficient. Corruption and incompentence needs to be removed in government as well as in the corporate penthouse. They need to work like a stellar corporation and not a nonproductive entity that strangles those that create all new jobs in this country.

    The writeoffs on the books of the financial stocks should be borne by the shareholders of those companies. However, the Federal Reserve, the SEC and other regulatory agencies need to be more proactive in mandating tighter standards of publically owned companies. When they allow 100% loans to value; when they allow real estate brokers to receive commissions and then also loan the funds to borrowers with ridiculous underwriting standards, the regulators need to step in and not allow it. Where have the Federal and State bank regulators been. Why are we not holding the bank regulators accountable. Is it because they are not accountable to anyone because they have government jobs. Just like in the corporate world, they need to lose their jobs if they are not doing theirs.

    We must eliminate greed. Once we do, once the Federal government starts working properly, Republicans and Democrats alike, we can return to being leaders in the world.

    Corporate America generally suceeds in spite of our political leaders. With a lttle help from them, just imagine what we could achieve.

    Let me also remind the writer where th DJIA average is today compared to where it was in 1990. Compare that to Japan. Look at the Japanese market today and compare it to 1990. There is no comparison. The U.S. markets are miles ahead. And we would be further ahead if all CEO's and our government leaders acted like Warren Buffet and Steve Jobs and not like the former Governors of New Jersey or New York.

    Eliminate greed and corruption from Corporate leaders and Government leaders and have them concentrate on Energy independence and we will have gone a long way in improving life in these United States. For that matter just eliminate the stupidity from doing their jobs and we'll probably get there.
    Mar 18 05:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eye on Keweenaw Land Association [View article]
    I have owned this company for about 15 years and it has increased in value by over 20 times since then. Management has done a good job of fending off potential acquirer of the company on two occassions, the last time as I recall at $65 per share. They are to be commended fo their stewardship over the last decade.

    However with the price of silver and other metals now up significantly, I believe they should be more proactive in looking for ways to extract these metals at this time.

    The creation of a REIT to minimize taxes and certainly eliminate the double taxation should also be explored. However, I would not rush to do this as both Democratic candidates, if elected, will undoubtedly do everyhing they can to reinact the absurd double taxation of dividends at a higher rate than the 15% level today as well as raise the rate on capital gains. Should the 15% level on gains be extended beyond 2010, the REIT probably makes sense.

    The management of the company has done a good job for its sharholders. Keep up the good work but don't shut out new ideas, especially if they are simply looking to improve the value incremently.
    Mar 16 05:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment