Seth

http://www.metue.com

21 Comments

    • Apple Reveals New Nanos, Touches in Fall Event [view article]
      Correction: price of the smallest iPod Touch (8gb) is going to be $229, not $199.

      Stalky- the graphic does show the vertical first and second generation Nano followed by the squat 3rd, and then the new, again tall, fourth edition that was just revealed. The scale for each picture is staggered to suggest 'evolution.' Maybe that scaling, or the dates, which correspond to the day each model was announced, confused?       Sep 10 06:56 PM
    • Will EA Change the Gaming Industry's Revenue Model? [view article]
      Update: Not long after this article was originally published, EA announced their FIFA 2009 game will feature a similar dynamic gaming service.

      For those tracking related information, the original article on Metue has been updated to cover the FIFA offering as well. the article is available here: metue.com/08-19-2008/d.../       Aug 20 03:30 PM
    • How Much Will the App Store Contribute to Apple’s Bottom Line? [view article]
      To the second comment – if you apply the formula as you’re suggesting it effectively assumes that the revenue sharing distributions (iTunes and App Store) are incorporated into the 14% Net Margin, that is, it reflects Apple’s earnings after sharing revenue and trimming off expenses. We can argue that is flawed:

      14% is a number derived from company-wide results and the bulk of Apple’s revenue is generated from product sales that don’t have a comparable rev-share component. It’s not like they’re sharing 60% of MacBook or iPod product revenue with partners.

      I chose to apply the margin rate to just Apple’s share (30% of Net Sales) because it yields a more conservative result which takes the revenue sharing component explicitly into account. Is it right? Maybe, maybe not. It’s acknowledged in the article that “using a Net Margin percentage taken as an average from the entire business can’t possibly reflect the differences in the different divisions. 14% works for the sake of putting something together but it’s a guess that could be off in either direction.”

      As for the value of including the iTunes calculations - the original title of the article on my own site was “Modeling iTunes AND App Store EPS potential.”
      Aug 13 03:28 PM
    • Strongest June Quarter in Apple History Doesn't Satisfy the Street [view article]
      Andy - you're absolutely right. And so are the echos. Yesterday, the Associated Press' widespread earnings coverage talked about Steve's absence. As you point out though - that's normal. Instead of spotting the mistake, I made one of my own and gave it more air time.

      Jul 22 07:10 PM
    • Will the Internet Harm Media's Major Players? [view article]
      Thanks Scott. Appreciate the feedback.

      I completely agree with you on point two. The ala carte ability to buy single songs instead of being forced to a full album is a major distinction I didn't include and should have... next time around, I guess.

      On the nit over bypassing encryption, I partly agree there too. It's true, for those who choose to do it, it's not that hard to bypass the DRM on videos. And you're right it only has to happen once before it’s out there. On the other hand, the size of feature length video files requires anybody copying/moving/recodin... them from DVD work through issues of compression, bandwidth and computing power. That’s especially true if they want to re-encode to a DVD they can use with their television. It’ll take software and time. Are those challenges much of a blockade? Probably not. But viewing it in the context of what can be done on "main street" versus by the "tech savvy" leads me to think that added difficulty has some value to the broader debate. How much value though? Not sure.

       Jul 10 09:15 PM
    • iPhone 3G Plans Around the Globe [view article]
      RE CANADA: The news about Canada is still unfolding. It now appears to be confirmed that Apple won't sell the phone at their own stores there. They may also be diverting some shipments previously meant for Rogers to Europe (unconfirmed).

      I've updated my original article on Metue to cover these changes and will continue to report on it as it unfolds. The update can be found here: metue.com/07-07-2008/i.../

       Jul 08 02:44 PM
    • Inside the iPhone: Who's Making What [view article]
      Absolutely true, gskiii. To have been completely accurate, I should have said "storage capacity" instead of "hard drive".... Jun 23 04:31 PM
    • Inside the iPhone: Who's Making What [view article]
      UPDATE: In addition to the above Apple rumors, a little more has hit the airwaves since this was original written. Notably, perspective on Apple's profit margin. We've got that info updated in the article at Metue.com (Link: metue.com/06-19-2008/a.../)

      For the quick summary here: there are reports Apple's cost structure for hardware may be as low as $100. There are also reports of exactly what AT&T will pay to Apple. Combined, if accurate, the iPhone 3G could be among the most profitable, per product, in Apple's portfolio. More in the link.       Jun 20 09:40 PM
    • Time Warner Invests in Comedy Website: No Easy Laughs to the Bank [view article]
      Rob and Warren,
      I can appreciate your looking out for how your company is characterized and am glad you took the opportunity to speak up. It's not everyday two executives take the time to participate in conversation on their company.

      To this article: this was primarily about Funny or Die and their new partnership. Since the references to the competitive landscape, which include MyDamnChannel, were intended to provide just a survey of the broad video marketplace, a detailed traffic analysis and discussion of other sites (yours included) was left out. That notwithstanding, the article should have referenced (and has been corrected on Metue.com (and will be adjusted on SA) to refer) to traffic growth for MyDamnChannel.com “in the early days” rather than as it appeared. For that edit that didn’t make the jump from my hand written notes to the final copy, I’ll deservedly take the shot.

      As to the data, the linked article, of course, references numbers from its publishing date. With the editorial correction, that should be clearer and stall any confusion.

      I also want to point out that the linked prior article noted two other things: 1. It was still too early to judge your traffic fairly, and 2. It said: Along with YouTube, “Adding a second outlet through MySpaceTV, and leveraging the strength of MySpace’s brand should significantly increase [My Damn Channel’s] audience reach and name recognition.”

      The intent, then and now, was to revisit MyDamnChannel in a different posting to look in on that; to write an article that takes into account different measurements that are more appropriate to the business model you’ve adopted.

      As I’m sure you’d be quick to point out, using Quantcast data, Alexa, ComScore or other page view numbers for your site (as was the original measurement) is potentially misleading. To note Funny or Die is getting 2.7m global unique visitors, or College Humor’s 1.3m, or your own 347k (via Quantcast) doesn’t give a complete picture. Since MyDamnChannel programming draws a sizable amount of views from syndication agreements with YouTube, MySpace etc, better measurement would be to count things like total video clip views and cross-site subscriber numbers.

      Besides that, as a further caveat on unique visitors, Quantcast’s own disclosures point out that unique visitor metrics are actually “cookie counts,” a tabulation of total visitors based on the number of unique cookies placed or received by visitors to a site. Since many browsers and security programs routinely delete these cookie files, the actual number of unique visitors for a site can be thrown off due to repetition. The ‘overcount, ’ Quantcast says, can sometimes be a factor of two or three times greater than the actual number.

      I’d be glad to touch base and hear your take for an appropriate follow up that focuses on MyDamnChannel, including the business model and audience acceptance.

      In the interim, thanks for the messages.
      Jun 12 05:04 PM
    • iPhone “By the Numbers”: Apple’s Sweeping Tide Across the Globe [view article]
      Yep, so much for the rumors Ultradodgy. Unfortunately, that news broke a couple days after the original article. The version on my own site, Metue.com, has been updated to account for it.

      Softbank has only about 18.8m subscribers (14.5m on 3G) to DoCoMo's 50+ million so its a smaller land grab. Apple was probably able to negotiate better terms.       Jun 05 02:14 PM
    • Icahn Has Two Days to Breathe Life into Micro-hoo [view article]
      Yahoo closed Monday at $25.26 on volume of about 41million. Friday it was at $25. on volume of about 30million shares.

      Tuesday, and today, the stock is indeed up higher but that gain happened after the news of Icahn's possible participation broke. It is fueled by the related speculation. That's also visible if you look at trading volume, Tuesday's result was more than double 3 month averages of about 38.5m shares.

      Incidentally, if Icahn did buy 50m shares as speculated, he likely bought part of them on the days following Microsoft's withdrawal when trading volume was especially high and large purchases would have been less surprising. Facts: On may 5 trading volume was 279m and the 6th was 179m. The intra day prices on those days ranged from 22.97 to 26.25.       May 14 02:29 PM
    • Take Two's New GTA Game Sells Well; EA: “Nothing Has Changed” [view article]
      Take Two is a company with a strong pipeline of games and a very loyal fan base. Invariably, EA's pending hostile offer is going to rankle some members of that group. A hostile takeover is, after all, by definition hostile.

      Here, the initial three comments on this article, and the negative tone in a few of them, seems to reflect some of that frustration. It's clear at least two readers believe Take Two is not getting a fair valuation and that analyst Michael Pachter is not held in their high regard. Fair enough, but directing those criticisms to this article is off base.

      This was not an article about valuation, nor Pachter. Nowhere does the article discuss whether EA's offer is fair, or reasonable. Nowhere does it discuss what Take Two might be worth. Nowhere did it take a position on whether Pachter is likely to be right or wrong.

      Quite simply, this article was about two things: 1. Adding perspective to GTA IV sales data; and 2. looking at whether or not those sales results are likely to influence EA's current bid.

      The research and analysis provided address just those two points. The reference to Pachter in context, as case in point, was an example of how analysts modeled for GTA IV sales before the retail release and how even the stellar sales results isn't changing their opinions. The point wasn't whether his analysis proves accurate but that the analysis didn't change despite GTA IV's sales performance.

       May 11 07:27 PM
    • Microsoft Turns Up the Heat on Sony, Nintendo: Xbox Prices Cut Internationally [view article]
      David - price may be a factor for some buyers choosing between a Wii and a bundled PS3 kit, maybe, but between the Xbox 360 and the PS3, I would agree. There the differences there are negligible.

      Re your other comment: that goes to editors choices in choosing the title. I do agree with you, however, price cuts don't automatically "turn up the heat." They are an effort to increase competition (at the expense of margin) but there's no guarantee they will succeed.       May 02 12:15 AM
    • Is Netflix a Short Term Sell or a Long Term Buy? [view article]
      Lisa,
      thanks for the comment. Regarding the ad markets, its about segmentation. Google is definitely one barometer but their income draws far less from display advertising then competitors so its an incomplete picture. It's the softness in the display sector at issue here. (That softness has been forecast for a while and can also be seen a little in Yahoo's projections, WPP's, Microsoft's and others).

      To throw some numbers at it: Netflix spent more than $69m on display advertising between January and June 2007. Its a big part of SAC costs.

      If you look at the mix of top 10 display advertisers back in November, 7 of the top 10 were financial services firms. If you look at the data for Feb '08, it's down to 4 (5 if you include an Auto insurer). Netflix, at the same time, is in the top 10 at number 7.

      ....Per earnings, their SAC costs were down to the lowest level since going public yet their stake in Display ads was up. That seems to support the argument in my article.       Apr 25 12:43 PM
    • Is Apple Making Way for the New iPhone? [view article]
      Anan, I replied to your comment on my own site, but for those here: As a disclaimer I'm not an engineer but I believe Watt Hours are calculated by voltage by MAH and then dividing down. In the case of the iphone, it's a 3.7V 1400 MAh battery (confirmed by the early product take aparts published in June). That yields 5180 MVah or 5.18 Watt Hours.

      Regarding Infineon - The leaks from the Asian manufacturing industry have a spotty track record. Still, the buzz is they do have it.

      Regarding the games - that sure looks to be the case. When the SDK was released a number of games were featured in the press show. They included a mobile version of EA's title Spore. And another game built around flying Star Wars spaceships. That model used the accelerometer in the phone to make it function similar to a Wii control..eg/ motion activated. (More on the SDK release can be found in part 2 of this article from Metue for those curious: metue.com/03-06-2008/a.../)

      As for the camera - as a factor of battery life and storage, your guess makes sense. There's also been some talk about both a front and rear mounted lens (one to support video conferencing). If that turns out to be true, it would back you up even more.

      A final comment - June definitely has the grapevine as the whisper date. On the other hand, an earlier announcement has gotten some rumor mill time too. At this point, the time line is a guess worthy of a betting pool all its own.       Apr 21 03:21 AM
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