Ben Holdsworth

39 Comments

    • ON: Wed Oct 1st 09:02 AM
      Commented on:
      Trying to Defend Mosaic
      Michael, usually I disagree with most stuff you write. This submission is absolutely dead on.

      Mosaic is the largest N.A. postash producer as long as Potash is only producing at low levels due to its strike. A recent analyst noted there was only 2 weeks production inventory left for shipping.

      India is projecting it needs 6-7% more fertilizer due to yield falls for key crops this year. Canpotex still has to negotiate.

      China, despite its positive spin on record crop production, will have to get to the table for potash soon. With Russia expanding crop acerage Uralkali will not be increasing exports soon, since domestic fertilizer demand will increase to meet the recently stated Russian objective of being one of the world's largest grain exporters in five years..

      Mosaic is a long term bargain. When hedge fund share price mutiliation ends, or they begin to buy back in after fear subsides, then fertilizer stocks will rise quickly.
      View article »
    • ON: Sun Sep 28th 11:12 AM
      Commented on:
      China’s Foreign Investment Stats Are Not What They Seem
      Good article and thanks for a new resource. One FDI resource I have found useful is comments in quarterly conference calls. While this does not apply widely, it does in specific industries, such as Goldman's $50 million investment in Chinese water (CWDK), Goldman's recent $200-300 million investment in Chinese pig farms, and Merrill's $42 million investment in Chinese magnesium production.
      View article »
    • ON: Fri Sep 26th 09:18 AM
      Commented on:
      Bush's Speech: Surprisingly Coherent
      I agree Bush said the right things and did it well. As several analysts and economists in other countries have said since last night's fiasco:

      I fear for America if there is no deal. The world has purchased US debt till this time.

      If America will not make a deal similar to Paulson's and acceptable to the global banking system, the world as we know it will be dramatically and tragically altered for the long term future -- to America's irretrevable detriment.
      View article »
    • ON: Wed Sep 24th 08:45 AM
      Commented on:
      Investing in China Is Still the Best Long Term Play
      Nice writeup and very pertinent.

      What I find interesting is so many pundits have hollered "Stay out of China" based upon slowdown/global risk. However, I find it interesting that Goldman, Merrill, Morgan, Citigroup, and others, while liquidating some assets, have simultaneously plowed funds into Chinese water, infrastructure, food/grain/pork, and basic materials companies.

      My take is -- if the major banks are investing in China in this environment -- why not the regular investor? Well, perhaps as usual the banks and funds are getting in cheap, then they'll let everyone else know so the PPS will be driven up.

      When you can buy shares in some Chinese small caps with more cash than market cap, and single digit p/e's, that have major expansions underway, and will double revenues on their implementation in less than 12 months, why not buy?
      View article »
    • ON: Thu Sep 18th 17:47 PM
      Commented on:
      Financial Terrorism? - Cramer's Stop Trading! (9/18/08)
      Cramer was coached. Cramer keep giving "the message" and do not back off.

      Make sure the investigators are reminded for months to come -- somebody almost wrecked America by "shorting out" its financial system -- a financial Pearl Harbor and 9/11 combined when one considers the wreckage of the last few weeks.

      "They" should pay -- big time, even if it is a country. Let's see -- whose markets were closed today due to a "financial crisis?" Wonder which financial crisis?

      While you're at it, make sure you throw in a call for the LSE and UK govt. to investigate its denial of service attack the Monday after the FNM and FRE takeover.
      View article »
    • ON: Mon Aug 18th 08:45 AM
      Commented on:
      The Wheat Debate
      There are a set of weather/climate issues behind grain sales and purchases in addition to currencies and the BDI. Additionally, input timing and costs (such as fertilizer) are an influence and are impacted by future crop intentions. Fertilizer stocks may be down, but that has not lowered the need for their use and shipment.

      Iran's aggressive purchasing is due to a 3-5 million ton shortfall in the wheat harvest due to drought, a concern for Egypt as well, since its imported wheat has been supplied -- usually by Syria. However that source is not availabe since they too are suffering from severe drought. Syria is also importing wheat, barley, and perhaps other bulk foods this year, as well as Iraq.

      China's soybean price drop was based upon good crop expectations (a 37% increase over last year), which are now in slightly doubt given drought in NE China. If the Chinese soybean or corn crop is less than expected, Brazil and the US will be the likely markets they will purchase from.

      Given the additional movement of wheat and other bulk dry goods, it is possible this may impact DRYS, and other shippers who specialize in wheat, barley, etc. vs. ores and minerals.
      View article »
    • ON: Tue Aug 5th 08:17 AM
      Commented on:
      Global Investing, BRIC by BRIC: Part II
      Martin, in addition to the large Chinese govt. owned companies there are quality, smaller growth companies, such as FEED, SDTH, NOEC, CAGC, that perhaps you may consider. In many cases, their long term growth is compelling.
      View article »
    • ON: Sat Aug 2nd 03:59 AM
      Commented on:
      ShengdaTech: Chinese Smallcap That Might Be Worth the Risks
      SDTH, despite the risks, is a very compelling and long term investment story. The move, and acquisition, while potentially costly short term, is very positive for SDTH's long term prospects, and its NPCC expansion will bode well for national and international business. There are additional NPCC applications in R&D, such as use on road materials, which will expand its potential future revenue base.

      Disclosure: Long
      View article »
    • ON: Tue Jul 29th 01:59 AM
      Commented on:
      Outlook for Chinese and Hong Kong ADRs
      Helpful summary Tom,

      Some would argue that Chinese domestic spending will follow the course of export revenues, and layoffs at Chinese exporters and manufacturing may trigger that. On the other hand, the Chinese exporters may become importers, or manufacturers for the domestic market or seek new international markets for goods...

      While long some Chinese ADR's, my investment interest is Chinese small caps that make most of their earnings in the Chinese domestic market that are basic materials or consumer staples and will experience strong growth. Companies such as FEED, CAGC, SDTH, CDS, and NOEC fall into my area of interest.

      BTW, is it possible on the table that LDK and TSL should fall into Industrials vs. IT?

      Look forward to your next article.
      View article »
    • ON: Wed Jul 23rd 09:32 AM
      Commented on:
      The Agriculture Boom Goes Bust
      I disagree with the fertilizer thesis as stated above. First of all, higher rates on fertilizer stockas are expected to go into effect on Sept. 1st, additionally, if you look at global pricing -- such as that being planned in Pakistan, for DAP, etc. the prices are going up. Throw in uncertainty of Russian potash production not being disupted again and there is additional catalyst in the stock pricing. The stocks have declined perhaps on the rotation into financials, but the fundamentals fo fertilizer demand have not changed...There is not enough food in the world and fertilizer helps meet that demand.

      Disclosure -- Long POT, MOS, AGU, CF, CAGC.OB, SQM.
      View article »
    • ON: Wed Jul 23rd 09:28 AM
      Commented on:
      China 3C Group Finally Turns a Corner
      The company is grossly undervalued, and will quite well, and the recovery in Chinese small caps will add fuel to the stock price. One more quarter of great earning will do the trick.

      Disclosure - Long
      View article »
    • ON: Sun Jul 20th 12:49 PM
      Commented on:
      UBS Raises PotashCorp and Agrium's Price Targets - Again
      Another analyst perspective is Moody's whose "sell price" on POT was $410, the last time I checked. Seems like their model may be more aggressive, but given that there is still a global need to grow more grain, etc. It is questionable demand will fall off soon.

      The Chinese took the price increase this year from Cantopex, and increases to cover the costs of POT's production boost need factored in...All in all, I agree with the arguement that high demand and limited supply will support pricing for some time.

      Only when grain supplies get back to what support global food security and grain prices fall, will you potentially see lower fert. price increases.
      View article »
    • ON: Tue Jun 24th 11:39 AM
      Commented on:
      CYXI: A Growth Stock Trading Below Book Value
      CYXI is a company I have held for a long time, and while it is small, it does have a long term vision that is compelling. Thanks for the additional DD.
      View article »
    • ON: Tue Jun 17th 13:04 PM
      Commented on:
      Heckmann Corp: Still Cheap?
      Nice summary. I have been following CWDK for some time, and expect the macro economics and acquiisition strategy will build a solid company by 1H 09. sold CWDK and bought HEK immediately when the deal was announced, and am in for the long term.
      View article »
    • ON: Fri Apr 4th 02:27 AM
      Commented on:
      Opening Foreign Brokerage Accounts Is a Silly Idea
      Foreign brokerage accounts are smart, as long as the investor isn't stupid. My US broker wasn't excited when I did this, but it was a good decision.

      As a US and Cypriot citizen I have a brokerage account fully covered by Cypriot and European law, that permits trading on many European, and Asian exchanges plus the US as well. With access to US brokerage information, I can get the same investment analysis on European and other international cos. supplied by US brokerage analysts for companies I choose to invest in. Brokerage costs are less than the US.

      Given currency appreciation of the euro vs. the USD, it has made a great for-ex hedge.

      Me...Silly? Nope -- Smart! The only wrinkle is calculating gains for US taxes....The writer would have been more helpful in telling US investors how to open international accounts successfully....I wish I had done this years ago.
      View article »
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