megiddo666

A Complete Guide to Agriculture ETFs

Might add the ETF - DAG to the list as well.

Wheat Crisis: The Next Black Swan?

He's quoting a June 14, 2009 LA Times article by Karen Kaplan. The LAT article is a fairly decent piece of research, especially highlighting US wheat vulnerability. There are a couple of issues I'd take with this piece, however.

First of all if there is a major outbreak of Ug 99, wheat stem rust in Asia, it might be better to use DAG to maximize your return.

Second, AFK would not be an effective investment vehicle. The African countries are already affected, such as Uganda and Kenya, and the ETF would likely drop as ecnomies are further impacted.

Also, one needs to add Eritrea to the list of Ug 99 infected countries.

Finally, El Nino's potential impact on Australian grain production, and that of India and Pakistan may have a more immediate impact on crop yields/grain supplies than Ug99.

Wheat Crisis: The Next 'Black Swan'?

Thanks for the Ug 99 report. However you might want to add Eritrea to your affected country list.

DBA has been more likely moved by soybean prices and commodity movement higher in conjunction with energy costs than Ug99 fears.

Also, if Ug99 is a black swan events fear, DAG might be a better investment.

AFK should not get much play on Ug99, the African continent has been infected for years, and while the wheat crops are damaged, AFK is not likely going to increase in value in response.

All the best.

The U.S. Government: Frozen in the Headlights

Michael,

This was insightful. The US does have a geopolitical opportunity, if it can stop being media mesmerized and look for opportunities to reshape the system.

On March 4, 1933, Franklin D. Roosevelt told Americans "We have nothing to fear, but fear itself." It was said for good reason and holds true in our crisis, which while financial, is primarily one of confidence to find solutions.

We both hope the US govt. will not remain blinded by fear.

The Euro Bubble Is Gone. It Will Not Reflate.

Bubbles do not reinflate?

UK housing prices.
California housing prices.

Currencies....USD was at $1.45 per GBP in 2001, got to $2.11 in 2008 and "crashed"/gained again to $1.45 in 2008. BPS "inflated" in between. Now what -- if the USD is trashed with $7.6 trillion in overhang -- what will happen vs. the GBP and EUR?

My take, EUR will become more a currency of "choice" in a multi-polar world.

China Natural Gas Reports Another Stellar Quarter

CHNG is very worthwhile company, and will grow through and long after the current downturn. Way undervalued.

China Water & Drink Favors Institutional Investors

Why this article came back up on Oct. 31 a day after the Hekmann deal closed is erroneous. The Goldman PIPE was done in January.

Trying to Defend Mosaic

Michael, usually I disagree with most stuff you write. This submission is absolutely dead on.

Mosaic is the largest N.A. postash producer as long as Potash is only producing at low levels due to its strike. A recent analyst noted there was only 2 weeks production inventory left for shipping.

India is projecting it needs 6-7% more fertilizer due to yield falls for key crops this year. Canpotex still has to negotiate.

China, despite its positive spin on record crop production, will have to get to the table for potash soon. With Russia expanding crop acerage Uralkali will not be increasing exports soon, since domestic fertilizer demand will increase to meet the recently stated Russian objective of being one of the world's largest grain exporters in five years..

Mosaic is a long term bargain. When hedge fund share price mutiliation ends, or they begin to buy back in after fear subsides, then fertilizer stocks will rise quickly.

China’s Foreign Investment Stats Are Not What They Seem

Good article and thanks for a new resource. One FDI resource I have found useful is comments in quarterly conference calls. While this does not apply widely, it does in specific industries, such as Goldman's $50 million investment in Chinese water (CWDK), Goldman's recent $200-300 million investment in Chinese pig farms, and Merrill's $42 million investment in Chinese magnesium production.

Bush's Speech: Surprisingly Coherent

I agree Bush said the right things and did it well. As several analysts and economists in other countries have said since last night's fiasco:

I fear for America if there is no deal. The world has purchased US debt till this time.

If America will not make a deal similar to Paulson's and acceptable to the global banking system, the world as we know it will be dramatically and tragically altered for the long term future -- to America's irretrevable detriment.

Financial Terrorism? - Cramer's Stop Trading! (9/18/08)

Cramer was coached. Cramer keep giving "the message" and do not back off.

Make sure the investigators are reminded for months to come -- somebody almost wrecked America by "shorting out" its financial system -- a financial Pearl Harbor and 9/11 combined when one considers the wreckage of the last few weeks.

"They" should pay -- big time, even if it is a country. Let's see -- whose markets were closed today due to a "financial crisis?" Wonder which financial crisis?

While you're at it, make sure you throw in a call for the LSE and UK govt. to investigate its denial of service attack the Monday after the FNM and FRE takeover.

The Wheat Debate

There are a set of weather/climate issues behind grain sales and purchases in addition to currencies and the BDI. Additionally, input timing and costs (such as fertilizer) are an influence and are impacted by future crop intentions. Fertilizer stocks may be down, but that has not lowered the need for their use and shipment.

Iran's aggressive purchasing is due to a 3-5 million ton shortfall in the wheat harvest due to drought, a concern for Egypt as well, since its imported wheat has been supplied -- usually by Syria. However that source is not availabe since they too are suffering from severe drought. Syria is also importing wheat, barley, and perhaps other bulk foods this year, as well as Iraq.

China's soybean price drop was based upon good crop expectations (a 37% increase over last year), which are now in slightly doubt given drought in NE China. If the Chinese soybean or corn crop is less than expected, Brazil and the US will be the likely markets they will purchase from.

Given the additional movement of wheat and other bulk dry goods, it is possible this may impact DRYS, and other shippers who specialize in wheat, barley, etc. vs. ores and minerals.

Global Investing, BRIC by BRIC: Part II

Martin, in addition to the large Chinese govt. owned companies there are quality, smaller growth companies, such as FEED, SDTH, NOEC, CAGC, that perhaps you may consider. In many cases, their long term growth is compelling.

ShengdaTech: Chinese Smallcap That Might Be Worth the Risks

SDTH, despite the risks, is a very compelling and long term investment story. The move, and acquisition, while potentially costly short term, is very positive for SDTH's long term prospects, and its NPCC expansion will bode well for national and international business. There are additional NPCC applications in R&D, such as use on road materials, which will expand its potential future revenue base.

Disclosure: Long

Outlook for Chinese and Hong Kong ADRs

Helpful summary Tom,

Some would argue that Chinese domestic spending will follow the course of export revenues, and layoffs at Chinese exporters and manufacturing may trigger that. On the other hand, the Chinese exporters may become importers, or manufacturers for the domestic market or seek new international markets for goods...

While long some Chinese ADR's, my investment interest is Chinese small caps that make most of their earnings in the Chinese domestic market that are basic materials or consumer staples and will experience strong growth. Companies such as FEED, CAGC, SDTH, CDS, and NOEC fall into my area of interest.

BTW, is it possible on the table that LDK and TSL should fall into Industrials vs. IT?

Look forward to your next article.