megiddo666's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/80589/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/145094-a-complete-guide-to-agriculture-etfs?source=feed#comment-561785 561785 Thu, 25 Jun 2009 09:08:25 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/144160-wheat-crisis-the-next-black-swan?source=feed#comment-553392 553392
First of all if there is a major outbreak of Ug 99, wheat stem rust in Asia, it might be better to use DAG to maximize your return.

Second, AFK would not be an effective investment vehicle. The African countries are already affected, such as Uganda and Kenya, and the ETF would likely drop as ecnomies are further impacted.

Also, one needs to add Eritrea to the list of Ug 99 infected countries.

Finally, El Nino's potential impact on Australian grain production, and that of India and Pakistan may have a more immediate impact on crop yields/grain supplies than Ug99.]]> Fri, 19 Jun 2009 06:03:21 -0400
First of all if there is a major outbreak of Ug 99, wheat stem rust in Asia, it might be better to use DAG to maximize your return.

Second, AFK would not be an effective investment vehicle. The African countries are already affected, such as Uganda and Kenya, and the ETF would likely drop as ecnomies are further impacted.

Also, one needs to add Eritrea to the list of Ug 99 infected countries.

Finally, El Nino's potential impact on Australian grain production, and that of India and Pakistan may have a more immediate impact on crop yields/grain supplies than Ug99.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/404911-michael-johnston/8961-wheat-crisis-the-next-black-swan?source=feed#comment-553137 553137
DBA has been more likely moved by soybean prices and commodity movement higher in conjunction with energy costs than Ug99 fears.

Also, if Ug99 is a black swan events fear, DAG might be a better investment.

AFK should not get much play on Ug99, the African continent has been infected for years, and while the wheat crops are damaged, AFK is not likely going to increase in value in response.

All the best.]]> Thu, 18 Jun 2009 20:06:24 -0400
DBA has been more likely moved by soybean prices and commodity movement higher in conjunction with energy costs than Ug99 fears.

Also, if Ug99 is a black swan events fear, DAG might be a better investment.

AFK should not get much play on Ug99, the African continent has been infected for years, and while the wheat crops are damaged, AFK is not likely going to increase in value in response.

All the best.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/121840-the-u-s-government-frozen-in-the-headlights?source=feed#comment-398462 398462
This was insightful. The US does have a geopolitical opportunity, if it can stop being media mesmerized and look for opportunities to reshape the system.

On March 4, 1933, Franklin D. Roosevelt told Americans "We have nothing to fear, but fear itself." It was said for good reason and holds true in our crisis, which while financial, is primarily one of confidence to find solutions.

We both hope the US govt. will not remain blinded by fear.]]> Sun, 22 Feb 2009 10:20:44 -0500
This was insightful. The US does have a geopolitical opportunity, if it can stop being media mesmerized and look for opportunities to reshape the system.

On March 4, 1933, Franklin D. Roosevelt told Americans "We have nothing to fear, but fear itself." It was said for good reason and holds true in our crisis, which while financial, is primarily one of confidence to find solutions.

We both hope the US govt. will not remain blinded by fear.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/108088-the-euro-bubble-is-gone-it-will-not-reflate?source=feed#comment-316098 316098
UK housing prices.
California housing prices.

Currencies....USD was at $1.45 per GBP in 2001, got to $2.11 in 2008 and "crashed"/gained again to $1.45 in 2008. BPS "inflated" in between. Now what -- if the USD is trashed with $7.6 trillion in overhang -- what will happen vs. the GBP and EUR?

My take, EUR will become more a currency of "choice" in a multi-polar world.

]]> Thu, 27 Nov 2008 06:55:27 -0500
UK housing prices.
California housing prices.

Currencies....USD was at $1.45 per GBP in 2001, got to $2.11 in 2008 and "crashed"/gained again to $1.45 in 2008. BPS "inflated" in between. Now what -- if the USD is trashed with $7.6 trillion in overhang -- what will happen vs. the GBP and EUR?

My take, EUR will become more a currency of "choice" in a multi-polar world.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/105813-china-natural-gas-reports-another-stellar-quarter?source=feed#comment-304959 304959 Thu, 13 Nov 2008 09:14:24 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/61749-china-water-drink-favors-institutional-investors?source=feed#comment-294985 294985 Fri, 31 Oct 2008 09:11:59 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/97953-trying-to-defend-mosaic?source=feed#comment-270324 270324
Mosaic is the largest N.A. postash producer as long as Potash is only producing at low levels due to its strike. A recent analyst noted there was only 2 weeks production inventory left for shipping.

India is projecting it needs 6-7% more fertilizer due to yield falls for key crops this year. Canpotex still has to negotiate.

China, despite its positive spin on record crop production, will have to get to the table for potash soon. With Russia expanding crop acerage Uralkali will not be increasing exports soon, since domestic fertilizer demand will increase to meet the recently stated Russian objective of being one of the world's largest grain exporters in five years..

Mosaic is a long term bargain. When hedge fund share price mutiliation ends, or they begin to buy back in after fear subsides, then fertilizer stocks will rise quickly.]]> Wed, 01 Oct 2008 09:02:26 -0400
Mosaic is the largest N.A. postash producer as long as Potash is only producing at low levels due to its strike. A recent analyst noted there was only 2 weeks production inventory left for shipping.

India is projecting it needs 6-7% more fertilizer due to yield falls for key crops this year. Canpotex still has to negotiate.

China, despite its positive spin on record crop production, will have to get to the table for potash soon. With Russia expanding crop acerage Uralkali will not be increasing exports soon, since domestic fertilizer demand will increase to meet the recently stated Russian objective of being one of the world's largest grain exporters in five years..

Mosaic is a long term bargain. When hedge fund share price mutiliation ends, or they begin to buy back in after fear subsides, then fertilizer stocks will rise quickly.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97649-chinas-foreign-investment-stats-are-not-what-they-seem?source=feed#comment-267462 267462 CWDK), Goldman's recent $200-300 million investment in Chinese pig farms, and Merrill's $42 million investment in Chinese magnesium production.]]> Sun, 28 Sep 2008 11:12:25 -0400 CWDK), Goldman's recent $200-300 million investment in Chinese pig farms, and Merrill's $42 million investment in Chinese magnesium production.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97341-bush-s-speech-surprisingly-coherent?source=feed#comment-265770 265770
I fear for America if there is no deal. The world has purchased US debt till this time.

If America will not make a deal similar to Paulson's and acceptable to the global banking system, the world as we know it will be dramatically and tragically altered for the long term future -- to America's irretrevable detriment.]]> Fri, 26 Sep 2008 09:18:17 -0400
I fear for America if there is no deal. The world has purchased US debt till this time.

If America will not make a deal similar to Paulson's and acceptable to the global banking system, the world as we know it will be dramatically and tragically altered for the long term future -- to America's irretrevable detriment.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/96219-financial-terrorism-cramer-s-stop-trading-9-18-08?source=feed#comment-258408 258408
Make sure the investigators are reminded for months to come -- somebody almost wrecked America by "shorting out" its financial system -- a financial Pearl Harbor and 9/11 combined when one considers the wreckage of the last few weeks.

"They" should pay -- big time, even if it is a country. Let's see -- whose markets were closed today due to a "financial crisis?" Wonder which financial crisis?

While you're at it, make sure you throw in a call for the LSE and UK govt. to investigate its denial of service attack the Monday after the FNM and FRE takeover.]]> Thu, 18 Sep 2008 17:47:01 -0400
Make sure the investigators are reminded for months to come -- somebody almost wrecked America by "shorting out" its financial system -- a financial Pearl Harbor and 9/11 combined when one considers the wreckage of the last few weeks.

"They" should pay -- big time, even if it is a country. Let's see -- whose markets were closed today due to a "financial crisis?" Wonder which financial crisis?

While you're at it, make sure you throw in a call for the LSE and UK govt. to investigate its denial of service attack the Monday after the FNM and FRE takeover.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91314-the-wheat-debate?source=feed#comment-232937 232937
Iran's aggressive purchasing is due to a 3-5 million ton shortfall in the wheat harvest due to drought, a concern for Egypt as well, since its imported wheat has been supplied -- usually by Syria. However that source is not availabe since they too are suffering from severe drought. Syria is also importing wheat, barley, and perhaps other bulk foods this year, as well as Iraq.

China's soybean price drop was based upon good crop expectations (a 37% increase over last year), which are now in slightly doubt given drought in NE China. If the Chinese soybean or corn crop is less than expected, Brazil and the US will be the likely markets they will purchase from.

Given the additional movement of wheat and other bulk dry goods, it is possible this may impact DRYS, and other shippers who specialize in wheat, barley, etc. vs. ores and minerals.]]> Mon, 18 Aug 2008 08:45:19 -0400
Iran's aggressive purchasing is due to a 3-5 million ton shortfall in the wheat harvest due to drought, a concern for Egypt as well, since its imported wheat has been supplied -- usually by Syria. However that source is not availabe since they too are suffering from severe drought. Syria is also importing wheat, barley, and perhaps other bulk foods this year, as well as Iraq.

China's soybean price drop was based upon good crop expectations (a 37% increase over last year), which are now in slightly doubt given drought in NE China. If the Chinese soybean or corn crop is less than expected, Brazil and the US will be the likely markets they will purchase from.

Given the additional movement of wheat and other bulk dry goods, it is possible this may impact DRYS, and other shippers who specialize in wheat, barley, etc. vs. ores and minerals.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/89116-global-investing-bric-by-bric-part-ii?source=feed#comment-222960 222960 Tue, 05 Aug 2008 08:17:09 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/88261-shengdatech-chinese-smallcap-that-might-be-worth-the-risks?source=feed#comment-220848 220848
Disclosure: Long]]> Sat, 02 Aug 2008 03:59:14 -0400
Disclosure: Long]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87329-outlook-for-chinese-and-hong-kong-adrs?source=feed#comment-217107 217107
Some would argue that Chinese domestic spending will follow the course of export revenues, and layoffs at Chinese exporters and manufacturing may trigger that. On the other hand, the Chinese exporters may become importers, or manufacturers for the domestic market or seek new international markets for goods...

While long some Chinese ADR's, my investment interest is Chinese small caps that make most of their earnings in the Chinese domestic market that are basic materials or consumer staples and will experience strong growth. Companies such as FEED, CAGC, SDTH, CDS, and NOEC fall into my area of interest.

BTW, is it possible on the table that LDK and TSL should fall into Industrials vs. IT?

Look forward to your next article.]]> Tue, 29 Jul 2008 01:59:54 -0400
Some would argue that Chinese domestic spending will follow the course of export revenues, and layoffs at Chinese exporters and manufacturing may trigger that. On the other hand, the Chinese exporters may become importers, or manufacturers for the domestic market or seek new international markets for goods...

While long some Chinese ADR's, my investment interest is Chinese small caps that make most of their earnings in the Chinese domestic market that are basic materials or consumer staples and will experience strong growth. Companies such as FEED, CAGC, SDTH, CDS, and NOEC fall into my area of interest.

BTW, is it possible on the table that LDK and TSL should fall into Industrials vs. IT?

Look forward to your next article.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/86184-the-agriculture-boom-goes-bust?source=feed#comment-212280 212280
Disclosure -- Long POT, MOS, AGU, CF, CAGC.OB, SQM.]]> Wed, 23 Jul 2008 09:32:23 -0400
Disclosure -- Long POT, MOS, AGU, CF, CAGC.OB, SQM.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/86385-china-3c-group-finally-turns-a-corner?source=feed#comment-212269 212269
Disclosure - Long]]> Wed, 23 Jul 2008 09:28:01 -0400
Disclosure - Long]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85812-ubs-raises-potashcorp-and-agrium-s-price-targets-again?source=feed#comment-209877 209877
The Chinese took the price increase this year from Cantopex, and increases to cover the costs of POT's production boost need factored in...All in all, I agree with the arguement that high demand and limited supply will support pricing for some time.

Only when grain supplies get back to what support global food security and grain prices fall, will you potentially see lower fert. price increases.]]> Sun, 20 Jul 2008 12:49:53 -0400
The Chinese took the price increase this year from Cantopex, and increases to cover the costs of POT's production boost need factored in...All in all, I agree with the arguement that high demand and limited supply will support pricing for some time.

Only when grain supplies get back to what support global food security and grain prices fall, will you potentially see lower fert. price increases.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/82432-cyxi-a-growth-stock-trading-below-book-value?source=feed#comment-191812 191812 Tue, 24 Jun 2008 11:39:14 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/81524-heckmann-corp-still-cheap?source=feed#comment-187152 187152 Tue, 17 Jun 2008 13:04:03 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/71124-opening-foreign-brokerage-accounts-is-a-silly-idea?source=feed#comment-136351 136351
As a US and Cypriot citizen I have a brokerage account fully covered by Cypriot and European law, that permits trading on many European, and Asian exchanges plus the US as well. With access to US brokerage information, I can get the same investment analysis on European and other international cos. supplied by US brokerage analysts for companies I choose to invest in. Brokerage costs are less than the US.

Given currency appreciation of the euro vs. the USD, it has made a great for-ex hedge.

Me...Silly? Nope -- Smart! The only wrinkle is calculating gains for US taxes....The writer would have been more helpful in telling US investors how to open international accounts successfully....I wish I had done this years ago.]]> Fri, 04 Apr 2008 02:27:43 -0400
As a US and Cypriot citizen I have a brokerage account fully covered by Cypriot and European law, that permits trading on many European, and Asian exchanges plus the US as well. With access to US brokerage information, I can get the same investment analysis on European and other international cos. supplied by US brokerage analysts for companies I choose to invest in. Brokerage costs are less than the US.

Given currency appreciation of the euro vs. the USD, it has made a great for-ex hedge.

Me...Silly? Nope -- Smart! The only wrinkle is calculating gains for US taxes....The writer would have been more helpful in telling US investors how to open international accounts successfully....I wish I had done this years ago.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/68962-what-the-bear-stearns-resolution-tells-us-about-the-fed?source=feed#comment-128035 128035
Of course either way the "doom prophets" would make it seem more terrible. I think some folks are in mantra mode to help the system collapse and then who wins?

Doom prophets are not usually solution sources, since that doesn't sell as well as fear. Same goes for the media, who like the fear mongers since it keeps people watching... or reading. I think the previous commentator would rather see the shorts win as well....

Professional traders and trading firms are what got us into this mess. A different take on Greenspans irrational exuberance....]]> Tue, 18 Mar 2008 05:00:04 -0400
Of course either way the "doom prophets" would make it seem more terrible. I think some folks are in mantra mode to help the system collapse and then who wins?

Doom prophets are not usually solution sources, since that doesn't sell as well as fear. Same goes for the media, who like the fear mongers since it keeps people watching... or reading. I think the previous commentator would rather see the shorts win as well....

Professional traders and trading firms are what got us into this mess. A different take on Greenspans irrational exuberance....]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/66409-china-agritech-preparing-to-bloom?source=feed#comment-120058 120058
In regard to the 234 DSO's, it may be possible these sales are booked during the fall and winter months for later delivery and payment. Thus the "financing" may be an accounting issue that gets fixed in 2Q 08 business as fertilizer is delivered and paid for.]]> Thu, 28 Feb 2008 06:24:16 -0500
In regard to the 234 DSO's, it may be possible these sales are booked during the fall and winter months for later delivery and payment. Thus the "financing" may be an accounting issue that gets fixed in 2Q 08 business as fertilizer is delivered and paid for.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/65727-commodity-analysts-believe-the-party-s-over?source=feed#comment-117888 117888 Fri, 22 Feb 2008 13:38:51 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/65258-5-reasons-why-china-retail-china-3c-group-are-on-a-roll?source=feed#comment-117336 117336
1) I am Chinese and here are my two cents: there are two peaks of
weddings in China's rural or urban areas: The first lunar month
(Mainly from the Spring Festival to the 15th of the the first lunar
month), and October when most people have at least one week long
holidays (National day on Oct 1). Getting married is becoming more and more expensive now in China, I don't have the number but besides
furniture following things must be purchased for their new home: a
nice TV, digital camera or camcorder or both (to record the phynomenen events of the new couple like wedding, birth of new baby, etc.), a PC (remember China became number one in internet users, most average home has one PC, though the family does not use them very often - Chinese are very fast to pick up new technologies :) Now you know what this mean to the Q1 and Q4 earnings of electronics stores like China 3C.

2) The winter storm would have some impact on the sales but I would not worry too much in a long run. I talked to my friends in China on this issue, they are all optimistic with 2008. Plus the regions that were
hard hit are mainly in Hunan and Guizhou, China 3C's sales region are
mainly in Jiangsu and Zhejiang (big cities as shanghai, nanjing and
hangzhou are in this region), the impact of the snow on this area is
not that bad, people lived normal life during the storm - they
experienced a few cold days and the streets were slippery due to ice,
other than that I've nothing very severe, like the cut of power lines
and close of the stores, etc. ]]> Wed, 20 Feb 2008 06:05:11 -0500
1) I am Chinese and here are my two cents: there are two peaks of
weddings in China's rural or urban areas: The first lunar month
(Mainly from the Spring Festival to the 15th of the the first lunar
month), and October when most people have at least one week long
holidays (National day on Oct 1). Getting married is becoming more and more expensive now in China, I don't have the number but besides
furniture following things must be purchased for their new home: a
nice TV, digital camera or camcorder or both (to record the phynomenen events of the new couple like wedding, birth of new baby, etc.), a PC (remember China became number one in internet users, most average home has one PC, though the family does not use them very often - Chinese are very fast to pick up new technologies :) Now you know what this mean to the Q1 and Q4 earnings of electronics stores like China 3C.

2) The winter storm would have some impact on the sales but I would not worry too much in a long run. I talked to my friends in China on this issue, they are all optimistic with 2008. Plus the regions that were
hard hit are mainly in Hunan and Guizhou, China 3C's sales region are
mainly in Jiangsu and Zhejiang (big cities as shanghai, nanjing and
hangzhou are in this region), the impact of the snow on this area is
not that bad, people lived normal life during the storm - they
experienced a few cold days and the streets were slippery due to ice,
other than that I've nothing very severe, like the cut of power lines
and close of the stores, etc. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/65189-quote-of-the-day-hard-to-ignore-soaring-food-prices?source=feed#comment-117334 117334
It is a potential indicator of what may be coming for the US consumer.

archive.gulfnews.com/i...

]]> Wed, 20 Feb 2008 04:49:56 -0500
It is a potential indicator of what may be coming for the US consumer.

archive.gulfnews.com/i...

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/63497-february-2008-update-shows-borderline-recession?source=feed#comment-115003 115003 Thu, 07 Feb 2008 02:52:14 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/63264-yet-another-round-of-panic?source=feed#comment-114951 114951 Wed, 06 Feb 2008 18:19:30 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/63150-what-the-housing-apocalypse-prophets-aren-t-revealing?source=feed#comment-114826 114826
Some great comments and food for thought. I encourage all to go look at the MBA data, there is more there than I mentioned.
A couple of quick responses:

User 118548, my glasses are clear. I am very aware of the issues.

Wakeup: Go read the MBA data yourself, which was part of reason for writing. Create your own table, and then decide. Especially note the changes in indices in comparison of application increases to rate cuts. While I recognize applications may be multiple attempts to get refinancing by a single filer, it is possible that there will be more approvals. In both examples I gave, the parties filed at least two applications, then it was a process of negotiation with lenders.

DC Housing Bear: Both examples in my article are from the DC area. Second I would debate some of your facts...I had a number of friends who went through the last California housing bust in the 90's, seems that California real estate did recover, and most people did not walk away from their inverted mortgages.

socalsurfbum: Regarding mortgage rate changes YoY I would suggest you look through the HSH historical mortgage data...I think you may find a difference in perspective, at least at the national level. Fixed rates actually increased on the national monthly level from 2004 through 2007. The 1 Year ARM's went from 3.83% in Jan 2004 to 6.00% in Dec 2007, to a rough parity with the fixed rates versus their earlier discount. One would have to consider seasonality, regional and local variance, etc. in the mortgage rate stats, but the trend was upward on rates, especially ARMs until the rates cuts began. A slow rate decline seems to have begun to in October 2007, post the August rate cuts, etc.

chrjr's comments echo part of my thinking an ARM's and CDO's. Citgroup is estimating FED rate cuts to 2.25% -- think of what that does across the financial system. See the ABC news article "Fed Rate Cut: What It Means for You" for a well reasoned consumer impact article: abcnews.go.com/Busines...

Humpty Dumpty, thanks for the comments, and for the rest as well...I have more in repsonse, but need to run. By the way...$4.50 for gas...Try $8.00+ in my neighborhood. Gotta go.]]> Wed, 06 Feb 2008 04:12:22 -0500
Some great comments and food for thought. I encourage all to go look at the MBA data, there is more there than I mentioned.
A couple of quick responses:

User 118548, my glasses are clear. I am very aware of the issues.

Wakeup: Go read the MBA data yourself, which was part of reason for writing. Create your own table, and then decide. Especially note the changes in indices in comparison of application increases to rate cuts. While I recognize applications may be multiple attempts to get refinancing by a single filer, it is possible that there will be more approvals. In both examples I gave, the parties filed at least two applications, then it was a process of negotiation with lenders.

DC Housing Bear: Both examples in my article are from the DC area. Second I would debate some of your facts...I had a number of friends who went through the last California housing bust in the 90's, seems that California real estate did recover, and most people did not walk away from their inverted mortgages.

socalsurfbum: Regarding mortgage rate changes YoY I would suggest you look through the HSH historical mortgage data...I think you may find a difference in perspective, at least at the national level. Fixed rates actually increased on the national monthly level from 2004 through 2007. The 1 Year ARM's went from 3.83% in Jan 2004 to 6.00% in Dec 2007, to a rough parity with the fixed rates versus their earlier discount. One would have to consider seasonality, regional and local variance, etc. in the mortgage rate stats, but the trend was upward on rates, especially ARMs until the rates cuts began. A slow rate decline seems to have begun to in October 2007, post the August rate cuts, etc.

chrjr's comments echo part of my thinking an ARM's and CDO's. Citgroup is estimating FED rate cuts to 2.25% -- think of what that does across the financial system. See the ABC news article "Fed Rate Cut: What It Means for You" for a well reasoned consumer impact article: abcnews.go.com/Busines...

Humpty Dumpty, thanks for the comments, and for the rest as well...I have more in repsonse, but need to run. By the way...$4.50 for gas...Try $8.00+ in my neighborhood. Gotta go.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/63182-kelly-adding-to-chcg-position?source=feed#comment-114724 114724 Tue, 05 Feb 2008 15:47:21 -0500