megiddo666

Wheat Crisis: The Next Black Swan?

He's quoting a June 14, 2009 LA Times article by Karen Kaplan. The LAT article is a fairly decent piece of research, especially highlighting US wheat vulnerability. There are a couple of issues I'd take with this piece, however.

First of all if there is a major outbreak of Ug 99, wheat stem rust in Asia, it might be better to use DAG to maximize your return.

Second, AFK would not be an effective investment vehicle. The African countries are already affected, such as Uganda and Kenya, and the ETF would likely drop as ecnomies are further impacted.

Also, one needs to add Eritrea to the list of Ug 99 infected countries.

Finally, El Nino's potential impact on Australian grain production, and that of India and Pakistan may have a more immediate impact on crop yields/grain supplies than Ug99.