megiddo666

Commodity Analysts Believe the Party's Over

Bespoke, usually I might generally agree with the analysts....However on wheat, and especially rice, plus other grains, there is too much damage, drought, floods, snow, and shortfalls of fertilizer use in India, Pakistan, Africa, etc, to make the case for prices to fall that much. China -- who really knows how much the Chinese are hedging on what they say to not have prices go sky high on crop shortfalls......Rice, for example, is not expected by most analysts I've read in Asia to drop in price, even after spring harvest, and the US is announcing that less rice will be planted this year...for 08-09.

Thursday Outlook: Sectors and International

David, I always look forward to these reports and find them extremely helpful. However on your DBA comments, while wheat planted area was down in the US last year, that is no longer the case. Corn acerage is now down, wheat and soyabeans has increased and is expected to increase for 08/09. See the Dec. 11, 2007 U.S. Wheat Associates report for the latest, slide 56.
www.uswheat.org/supply...#