megiddo666

Trying to Defend Mosaic

Michael, usually I disagree with most stuff you write. This submission is absolutely dead on.

Mosaic is the largest N.A. postash producer as long as Potash is only producing at low levels due to its strike. A recent analyst noted there was only 2 weeks production inventory left for shipping.

India is projecting it needs 6-7% more fertilizer due to yield falls for key crops this year. Canpotex still has to negotiate.

China, despite its positive spin on record crop production, will have to get to the table for potash soon. With Russia expanding crop acerage Uralkali will not be increasing exports soon, since domestic fertilizer demand will increase to meet the recently stated Russian objective of being one of the world's largest grain exporters in five years..

Mosaic is a long term bargain. When hedge fund share price mutiliation ends, or they begin to buy back in after fear subsides, then fertilizer stocks will rise quickly.

The Agriculture Boom Goes Bust

I disagree with the fertilizer thesis as stated above. First of all, higher rates on fertilizer stockas are expected to go into effect on Sept. 1st, additionally, if you look at global pricing -- such as that being planned in Pakistan, for DAP, etc. the prices are going up. Throw in uncertainty of Russian potash production not being disupted again and there is additional catalyst in the stock pricing. The stocks have declined perhaps on the rotation into financials, but the fundamentals fo fertilizer demand have not changed...There is not enough food in the world and fertilizer helps meet that demand.

Disclosure -- Long POT, MOS, AGU, CF, CAGC.OB, SQM.