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  • Misreported Financial Website Stats Present Hidden Opportunity In National Research Corp. B Shares  [View article]
    What is tough to buy in this whole story is the stated purpose of the A shares as an acquisition currency. Who in their right mind is going to buy the A shares?
    Jun 7, 2014. 06:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MFC Responds To Serial Violator Of Securities Laws Seeking To Unlawfully Seize Control 
    I am glad to see you have added some valid criticism in contrast to your prior cheerleading for Smith (but otherwise excellent analysis).

    It will be in both their interests to settle this quickly. I can't help but think that all of this might lead to a return of some capital to shareholders in the not to distant future, for any one of a variety of reasons.
    Nov 27, 2013. 02:09 PM | Likes Like
  • MFC Responds To Serial Violator Of Securities Laws Seeking To Unlawfully Seize Control 
    Perhaps Michael Smith and MFC management should concentrate on running MFCs businesses, adding economic value, and improving disclosure to shareholders, rather than going after Kellog. I am a considerable shareholder myself, certainly enough to have the occasional question answered, but this company has ignored my infrequent attempts to have questions answered in the past. The time has come for someone to light a fire under this management group. Mr. Smith, our company is not your private sandbox.
    Nov 27, 2013. 11:14 AM | 1 Like Like
  • National Research Corp.'s Class B Shares: The Low-Risk Double  [View article]
    Brilliant find. Only one question. In the event of an acquisition by the company and the issuance of A stock for financing - are you certain the B stock does not get diluted even though B shareholders have not participated in funding the acquisition??? In other words, do B shareholders get to share in the acquisition's incremental earnings even though it has been paid for entirely by A shareholders???
    Nov 4, 2013. 09:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • With A 57% Year-Over-Year Decline, Walter Energy Is Not Traveling North Anytime Soon  [View article]
    This analysis misses the point on WLT. One should remember that the high quality seaborne met coal market is an extremely tight one, and with a little weather in Australia and/or the slightest demand improvement in China, you could be looking at $300 coal, virtually overnight - impossible to predict, but a possibility that should be considered. When I hear people talking about the outlook for "the coal market" in general (and even more irrelevant, natural gas prices, or what Obama is doing with "clean coal" etc.) in the context of WLT, then I know they don't really understand this investment. Far more salient is what might happen during the November-May cyclone season in Australia, or to Chinese monetary and fiscal policy in the foreseeable future. I'd say it's back to the drawing board on this one.
    Sep 9, 2013. 10:01 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Institutional Support For J.C. Penney Vanish?  [View article]
    UPDATE 1-Soros reports 7.9 percent stake in Penney, shares rise

    I guess "George" didn't call you on this one. This ought to squeeze a few pimples.
    Apr 25, 2013. 05:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Premier Exhibitions' Titanic Sale Sunk?  [View article]
    I wouldn't call that research. I would call it immaterial.
    Apr 9, 2013. 11:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Premier Exhibitions' Titanic Sale Sunk?  [View article]
    Very well said, Ed54.

    Gregg, dude, you really need to chill out. Your on a rampage regarding mischaracterization on the part of the author, however, you are guilty of the same. A non-binding letter of intent is NOT a transaction, even though you keep referring to it as such. It's not even CLOSE. There is no transaction here...yet. Unless you know more than you let on, you have no way of gauging what the prospective buyers true intentions are or what tactics they are employing in any negotiations. You go so far as to say they have negotiated the price and are now working "to get a definitive agreement". I am not really sure what this means exactly, apart from, well, there currently is not deal yet.

    Beyond the above, it is more than reasonable to question appraised values. I would hasten to point out that appraised value is NOT market value. This is particularly true in the case of the restrictions placed by the court on a prospective sale.

    Also, I would say you are rather enthusiastic in your comparison of the Titanic wreck to the Mona Lisa. To each his own, its a matter of taste, but I would point out there is only one Mona Lisa vs. thousands of Titanic artifacts, recovered or otherwise.

    Finally, one word of advice. If you really want to engage people in an intelligent discussion, you really need to tone it down. You come off like you are in high school.
    Apr 6, 2013. 05:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Institutional Support For J.C. Penney Vanish?  [View article]
    So I take it you're short in the mid 15s. Go clip some coupons.
    Mar 17, 2013. 06:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Institutional Support For J.C. Penney Vanish?  [View article]
    There is quite a bit of ignorance regarding JOE FRESH. My sense is the line has a lot more potential to have a big and fast impact.
    Mar 16, 2013. 05:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Evidence For Distortion Of The Market Caused By QE3  [View article]
    And just one more thing, on the concept of beta (particularly misused). You do not actually increase the beta of a company or a portfolio by increasing the financial leverage. You have to remember that beta and MPT assume optimal capital structure (only one level of debt for an individual security). Once you vary the debt level of a company away from optimal, you move away from the theoretical model. So, it's true that you should not expect higher UNLEVERED returns from a more highly leveraged company, because the more highly leveraged company does not, in fact, have a higher beta in the theoretical sense..
    Jan 12, 2013. 11:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Evidence For Distortion Of The Market Caused By QE3  [View article]
    First, regarding your statement "take what you said and think about it: investing in more highly leveraged companies must yield a higher return." I did't say that, actually. Nor did I bring MPT into it, which is a concept that requires a set of assumptions (like, as you point out, efficient markets, among MANY others) that, that don't exist in the real world, thereby making the concept one of the most grossly misused in financial analysis.

    I am merely saying that, beyond the notions that highly levered companies, on balance, will exhibit 1) maginified earnings performance due to the effect of leverage, and 2) additional variations in earning performance due to the cost of debt (interest rates), I am not sure I see any incremental insight in your article.

    That the Fed is distoring the market - I actually agree. Abnormally low rates for a long period of time will undoubtedly cause the market to overvalue highly levered companies, as the market loses sight of earnings in a more normalized interest rate environment. The opposite is true with high cash companies.The obvious conclusion, therefore, is that levered stocks will get whacked when rates go higher and their interests costs do the same. They will also get whacked, in general, when earning go lower in an economic downturn.

    The same is true, by the way, for higher yielding stocks and things like MLPs.
    Jan 12, 2013. 10:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Evidence For Distortion Of The Market Caused By QE3  [View article]
    So what you are saying is that the performance of a portfolio of highly leveraged companies magnifies the performance of the broad market, up or down. Kind of like saying the sky is blue.
    Jan 11, 2013. 10:11 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Teck Resources' Outlook Is Bright  [View article]
    You are bang on. World class mining company trading at 4.5x cash flow based on low end met coal pricing assumptions. Let's see where this thing is in December.

    I am long TCK.B also, along with some Jan 2013 $40 calls.
    Apr 29, 2012. 10:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Great Northern Iron Ore: The Greatest Short Play You Can't Make  [View article]
    I have been trying to borrow this stock for a year and have not been able to. Great short idea, but impossible to actually execute.
    Mar 22, 2012. 11:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment