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  • Friday: QE Fever Turns To QE Forever! [View article]
    Yes, reg. AMZN I too noticed. Not writing to mock, but Phil, can you share why? Is it because you think being bearish at anything would be as futile as spitting into a QE money hurricane?
    Sep 14, 2012. 01:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herding Behavior Explains The Sky-High Prices Of Amazon And Salesforce [View article]
    rather cryptic. what do you mean??
    Sep 14, 2012. 12:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bear Hunting Along The Amazon [View article]
    @Colin: Yes, and the other intangible is perhaps the network of supporters and well-wishers in the hedge fund and investment community cultivated from Bezos' time working at Bankers Trust & D. E. Shaw & Co.?
    Sep 14, 2012. 10:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Could See A 6% Gain By Late 2012 [View article]
    "..AMZN could crash it's price at anytime..."
    Yes, possibly, except for the anytime part. Hope you have the cojones to hang on.
    Unlike how Whitney Tilson handled his Netflix short who shorted it at around $190 only to cover at around $230 just a few months later. And seemed so sensible and sober when Netflix peaked at around $300 6 months later. From where it deflated within a few months to the 60's.
    Sep 14, 2012. 09:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: One More Thing [View article]
    @bilton: minor point. 4th gen 32gb is $249 (from your link). Perhaps they dropped the price since your post?
    Sep 14, 2012. 01:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herding Behavior Explains The Sky-High Prices Of Amazon And Salesforce [View article]
    At least in the case of Amazon which I follow closely, there has been no herding or piling in by institutional investors, at least over the last two years.
    Institutional ownership has been pretty much, in the aggregate, of a buy & hold kind, although there has been some musical chairs among the big holders like, say, T.Rowe unwinding while Capital World bulking up, but in total Institutional holdings have held steady at about 300 million +/- 5 million. Bezos has been hanging on to his 88 million.
    Even shares outstanding have stayed pretty steady at around 450 million because of buybacks in spite of large number of exercised stock grants. Amazon spent about $1.25 billion to buyback 6.8 million shares just over the last year and it still has another $1 billion left in its buyback warchest.
    So, herding may not be what is causing the price levitation.
    More likely it is a cartel pool in action.
    Sep 13, 2012. 10:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: One More Thing [View article]
    As I posted in an earlier comment, the new iPod Touch pricing makes sense when it gets positioned as a capable but so much more empowered alternative to the mid-priced point & shoots which are priced in that range.
    A recent article which shares that view:

    And for an iPad mini priced the same or even less, that may not pose any problem as it would be positioned against the Nexus 7 and Kindle and as a cheaper, smaller iPad tablet.
    Sep 13, 2012. 08:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: One More Thing [View article]
    But the $299 price seems reasonable when you compare it to a mid-priced point & shoot (example: Canon S100 @$350).
    Except for optical zoom and somewhat faster lens f/2.0 vs f/2.4, I can't justify buying the Canon for $350 that I was about to vs. waiting a week or two for the new iPod Touch.
    If the Lumia 920 with the faster f/2.0 lens and all the other superior specs mentioned above in the comments were available in a player version, that would have been a contender, physical chunkiness not withstanding.
    Your earlier comment about what a $299 price for the Touch would suggest pricing for an iPad-mini, perhaps even if priced the same or lower may not matter as it will likely be differentiated with an inferior camera or merely a front facing camera. Anyway, I can't see one using a tablet for taking pictures.
    Sep 13, 2012. 02:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: One More Thing [View article]
    I think Nokia should adopt the Samsung/Apple playbook and put out non-phone player versions as well (Galaxy Player, iPod Touch).
    Or they do and I am not aware of it i.e. a "player" version of the Lumia 920?
    Sep 13, 2012. 01:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: One More Thing [View article]
    Quite right. And not just on the iPhone5 but also the new iPod Touch which I think has the same camera specs. Perhaps the iPod Touch is priced as it is at $300 because Apple is targeting the iPod as a competent alternative to mid-priced point&shoot cameras which are also priced in that price range. Only thing I see missing is an optical zoom.
    Personally, I was actually looking at getting a Canon S100 point & shoot which is priced around $350, but now I have second thoughts. Only plus for the Canon I see besides the optical zoom is a faster lens (f/2.0) vs. f/2.4 on the new iPod/iPhone.
    Sep 13, 2012. 01:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Throws Down The Gauntlet [View article]
    @Victor: "..The CEO is using the profits that should belong to stockholders to build an empire.."
    And worse.
    Has spent $1.6 billion of scant profits to buyback some 15 million shares since 2007. More recently $960 million to buyback 5.3 million from a new $2 billion repurchase authorization.
    All designed to keep the dilution from exercise of stock options from cratering the stock price.
    Seems their business plan has more to do with inflating the stock price with dubious metrics and fluff PR than with the goal of generating profits.
    Sep 12, 2012. 08:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • All-in? Amazon (AMZN) CEO Jeff Bezos confirms that its expanding network of warehouses across the U.S. will help reduce delivery times for online shoppers - potentially to the point that same-day delivery will be an option in some markets. It's a move that analysts say could either make the company the dominant retailer for decades or keep it mired with low profits due to the high costs of investing in the new warehouses. [View news story]
    Yes. Bezos about 88 million.
    Institutionals: about 300 million
    And the rest,about 60 or so million by everybody else.
    The hoi polloi owns less than Bezos alone.
    And the shorts are a mere 8 million, far from their peak level around 23 million in 2009 when shares outstanding were 20+million lower.

    That probably explains how the cartel can levitate this stock rationalized by constantly shifting metrics and pie-in-the-storylines.
    Sep 12, 2012. 03:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reviews are out (I, II, III) for the $199 7" Kindle Fire HD. Amazon (AMZN) is praised for providing a superior display and other hardware improvements over the original Fire, and receives high marks for its content selection. But the Fire HD's app selection, performance, and feature set are often found lacking relative to the Nexus 7, never mind the iPad. And its sales pitches don't always go over well either. It looks like the non-HD Fire, with its $159 price tag, may have a bigger impact on Amazon's tablet share. (more[View news story]
    Note before apples-to-apples price comparison w/Nexus 7:
    The Fire doesn’t come with a wall charger; that’s $10 extra at purchase time, or $20 later. Without it, you have to charge from a computer’s USB jack — and even then, the Kindle doesn't charge unless it's asleep or its brightness is turned down. (Rival tablets charge just fine from the same jacks.)
    From NYT's David Pogue review
    Sep 12, 2012. 01:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bear Hunting Along The Amazon [View article]
    What difference does it make?
    Odd you imagined it a bragworthy act to mention your unmasking of Paulo Santos.
    If you think brigantine is combative and obsessive, just say so and move on as it is not mandatory for your to reply to all comments nor is it considered that you have yielded on some contentious point. You merely diminish yourself by obsessing over who someone is rather than addressing what someone said.
    Sep 12, 2012. 11:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Buy The Amazon Kindle Fire HD Hype [View article]
    @Barry: And how much profit do you think they are sucking out of iTunes? Hear it is just a measly $12 from each iPhone or iPad owner downloading an avg. of 68 apps over its life span (with 30% of them free).

    Even Tim Cook was quoted in a recent Paulo Santos article stating ..."was not there for the profit," .. the iTunes Store is targeted to run at break even as a convenience to users, not as a business...
    Sep 11, 2012. 03:32 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment