brynaw

41 Comments

    • Great Society Part II: Fed Tries to Save Itself From...Itself [view article]
      Oh, and for those of you out there who suspect it *might* not be such a good idea for the taxpayer to bailout reckless Enron-style banksters and other Ponzi-scheme participants, you might want to write, email or call your Congresscritters (or, even better, do all three):

      www.senate.gov/general...
      www.house.gov/writerep/       Aug 24 03:14 PM
    • Great Society Part II: Fed Tries to Save Itself From...Itself [view article]
      I think it's a super idea for taxpayers to bailout hedgies and banksters for having originated $Trillions in bad loans they knowingly bundled up as MBSs/CDOs and then pawned off to sucke-- er, "investors". And let's not forget all those Casey Serin clones out there that bought up millions of "investment" properties that they knew they couldn't afford, using neg-ams and NINJA loans.

      I think the government SHOULD reward individuals and institutions that habitually speculate and make reckless financial decisions --that way we'll be sure to have even MORE giant asset bubbles to bailout in the future! Anyone who refused to participate in this massive Ponzi housing scheme obviously hates home"ownership&qu... and our Freedoms™.

      TAX the savers!
      TAX the renters!
      TAX people who refused to speculate!
      SAVE the banksters!
      SAVE the reckless stupid people!
      SOCIALIZE risks and PRIVATIZE profits!

      No moral hazard here folks, move along (and keep paying those taxes)...       Aug 24 03:02 PM
    • Is the Normalization of Housing Prices a Realistic Expectation? [view article]
      Markham Lee,

      Why do you hate America and our Freedom™ so? Your post makes no sense and was clearly influenced by Freedom™-hating Gloom-n-Doomer terrorists who want to undermine our cheap-credit and hyperconsumption fueled Potemkin Prosperity.

      The historic relationship between rents, incomes and carrying costs has been forever severed. The permament land shortage and endless supply of wealthy retiring Boomers and rich foreigners means that first-time American buyers will be priced out forever.

      Renters, and those born in future generations, will be will be unable to afford a $10 million starter home in 5 years. They will live in tent cities, and used Hondas. This asset bubble is unlike any before it in history, because it will never slow down, or pop. The gains are permanent. It’s a new paradigm, and anyone who doesn’t buy now will forever miss out on perpetual 20%/year appreciation.

      Homeownership and perpetual gains from asset speculation are inalienable *rights* guaranteed by our Constitution. If those gains are ever wiped out, the government is obligated to confiscate surplus wealth from responsible savers and renters and transfer it to Wall Street, reckless subprime lenders and people who cannot afford the mortgages on their 10 "investment" properties.

      These are the "facts", the truthiness of which is beyond dispute.       Aug 23 08:22 PM
    • There's Just No Need For A Fed Cut [view article]
      Conflating not having the desire to stick responsible taxpayers/savers with the bill for a bubble caused by reckless speculators/lenders with supporting the Iraq war is not helpful to this debate. Being anti-Wall Street bailout does not = being pro-neocon. I am anti-war AND anti-bailout. Aug 23 02:05 PM
    • There's Just No Need For A Fed Cut [view article]
      Joe,

      Personally, I *do* feel some sympathy for people just looking to buy 1 home for the purpose of shelter and got bait-n-switched into a dodgy mortgage (Golly, remember that? Back when houses were primarily used for shelter, not poker chips in a global speculative Ponzi scheme?). However, I take exception to the idea that anyone *has* to buy a house. There are other alternatives --like renting, which I'm currently doing as I do not want to be a sad statistic myself.

      There seems to be this absurd prevailing mindset where renter = "loser"/seco... class citizen, and hyper-leveraged homedebtor = "winner". Really an outgrowth of our current "winner take all" and "he who dies with the most toys wins" mindset. IMHO, this is just a symptom of a fundamentally sick society where what you consume defines who you are.

      Don't let FUD and hyper-materialism run your life. You have alternatives --exercise them.       Aug 23 02:01 PM
    • There's Just No Need For A Fed Cut [view article]
      Oops...

      -God bless you, Tom Sullivan
      +God bless you, <strong>Todd<... Sullivan       Aug 22 03:50 PM
    • U.S. Foreclosures Surge [view article]
      <i>*Everybody* who stepped up and bought more home than they could afford is a speculator. If they were a first-time buyer "suckered" in, they should've stayed a renter. You can't cheat an honest man!</i>

      Can't agree completely with this --you paint with too broad a brush here. I know many friends and colleagues that saw prices shooting up 20-30%/year (SCAL) and basically panicked about being "priced out forever" --I was *almost* one of them (but for the grace of God and Ben Jones go I...). And it wasn't like the REIC wasn't actively promoting this fallacy either. Anyone out there recall David Lereah's book depicting a house literally floating away?. FUD has always been a powerful and effective selling tool and will continue to be.

      Again, ignorance does not = malevolence. Not everyone out there is an economics expert, and for that matter, quite a few "experts" got it completely wrong too. Nowadays, everyone's on the revisionist history "it was a speculative bubble --Duh, I *always* knew that!" bandwagon. But when you look back at all the bubble-denying articles from even a year ago, it's obvious that tons of people --even economists-- missed the call.

      <i>*Everybody* who took a HELOC that they couldn't afford to pay back is a speculator.</i>

      Again, I'm sure this is true for a large % of those who did, but not 100%. Again, the industry was really pushing the idea that rolling your revolving debt into a low-low rate HELOC was the *smart* thing to do. Not saying that makes the homedebtors completely blameless for their actions, or automatically deserving of a bailout --far from it. Just saying there's plenty of blame to go around:

      Reckless borrowers &amp; outright speculators counting on endless 20%/yr appreciation.

      Reckless lenders selling risks downstream to MBS/CDO sucke--, er... "investors".

      Asleep-at-the-switch "regulators" that not only didn't regulate, but actively spiked the punchbowl at the exact wrong moment (Fed's 1%).

      Cartel-esque NAR, always attempting to hide information from buyers, pressuring appraisers to "hit the number", and actively manipulating market statistics to give the illusion of perpetually rising prices (bogus DOM, cooked "medians", "affordability&qu... metrics, etc.).       Aug 22 03:46 PM
    • U.S. Foreclosures Surge [view article]
      No DooDahs,

      I too have no sympathy for greedy speculators and the willfully ignorant, who ignored all warning signs and common sense. The only thing is, I would caution against laying 100% of the blame on homedebtors alone. There were many dodgy lenders &amp; brokers out there outright lying and manipulating people into buying homes with NINJAs (passing off a neg-am special as a conventional "fixed-rate" loan, etc.). Not everyone who is going to lose their home is a speculator, and the "well meaning but clueless" segment may be larger than you think (hint: up to 80% of houses in CA were purchased with IOs or neg-ams in 2006). The mortgage industry is ripe for some serious regulation (Sarbox for the REIC, anyone?).

      As far as the impact of the housing bubble on the grand scheme of things, I certainly hope you're right about that. However, I'm not certain that the housing/easy-credit implosion won't have a significant impact on consumer spending (70% of the economy), as MEW (refi's, cash-outs, "wealth effect", etc.) has largely been driving GPD growth since the Dot.com meltdown. Fyi: Calculated Risk has some excellent graphs &amp; data demonstrating this.       Aug 22 01:47 PM
    • There's Just No Need For A Fed Cut [view article]
      God bless you, Tom Sullivan. Took the words right out of my mouth. Anyone who agrees and is NOT in favor of a reckless lender/hedge fund bailout, please write your Congresscritter or Senator:

      www.house.gov/writerep/
      www.senate.gov/general...

      Can't hurt to sign this petition too: www.petitiononline.com...       Aug 22 01:30 PM
    • U.S. Foreclosures Surge [view article]
      NO DooDahs,

      Yes, the foreclosure rate --though up from last year-- is still relatively low by historical standards.

      Problem #1 is, the prevailing trend going forward is up --way up, and we are only 1 year or so into the the correction phase of this RE cycle. RE corrections typically last several years or more (Japan's land bubble took a full 15 years to deflate). So... we're in the first or second inning at most, this game is far from over, and the trend is not your friend.

      Problem #2 is, foreclosures aren't evenly spread out across the country. They (and the toxic loans that spawned them) are heavily concentrated in a few highly speculative markets, such as CA, NV, AZ &amp; FL. Just because the average depth of a lake is only 3 feet, doesn't mean there aren't parts where it's deep enough to drown in. If you happen to be one of those foreclosed families in a formerly hot market, you won't feel so "lucky" about that "national" average.

      But, hey, if you feel so bullish on residential RE right now, go lever up.       Aug 21 05:23 PM
    • Market Sinkhole Alert: Look Out Below [view article]
      Ok, "DooDahs", you go first! Aug 09 03:02 PM
    • A Rate Cut Won't Save This Economy [view article]
      Paul Schwartzmeyer,

      Paying off debt is soooo 20th century. No one does that anymore. Aren't you familiar with our brave New Paradigm: "Debt = Wealth"?

      Stop hating Amerika with your baseless Doomster hand-wringing and get out there and start spending (on credit of course)! Only more debt can save us. A true Patriot will spend everything he has, plus everything his children will earn, plus everything his grandkids will earn. And after that, he goes out and gets an <i>additional<... line of credit from the central banks of China/Japan. To buy more stuff made in... China/Japan.

      Get with the program already!       Aug 07 01:42 PM
    • Stop the Presses: Personal Saving Rate Is Now Positive [view article]
      So let me get this straight, because the media is reporting negative savings numbers for the past few years (first time this has happened since the Great Depression), politicians are taking some flack and Joe Howmuchamonth is getting a little nervous --especially since his Debt = Wealth home ATM machine is now in the process of shutting down.

      So... aforementioned politicans go the the BLS and demand that they torture the data until it produces the positive results they need in order to reassure the American sheeple. So, taking a page from the CPI playbook, they just 'hedonically' adjust the ol' "savings" formula, and viola! Positive savings rate achieved!! Time to hang the 'Mission Accomplished' banner from the deck of the U.S.S. Hyperleveraged.

      Is it any wonder the public trust in any statistics the government releases has all but disappeared?       Aug 01 05:35 PM
    • The Credit Window Is Now Closed [view article]
      @Paul Meisel,

      Granted, 2 or 3-days of poor performance does not a secular trend make. However, I'd caution against taking anything the talking heads over at Bubblevision say at face value. Last I checked, the Dow was down another ~100 pts and still dropping.       Jul 27 02:28 PM
    • Will Subprime Mess Hit Prime Borrowers? [view article]
      God bless you, Mr. Bernabe (not to be confused with "Bernanke"). You obviously haven't imbibed any of the sweet, sweet Kool-Aid offered at so many typical MSM outlets, such as BubbleVisision (MSNBC), WSJ, "Goldilocks" Kudlow, Krammer, etc. Jul 26 07:47 PM
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