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Christian Hviid

Christian Hviid
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  • A Dormant Giant Opportunity [View instapost]
    While the secular merit of a steepening trade is intact on a tactical basis I would sell out of the trade based on some technicals and lock in an almost 16% paper profit using close of May 9 of $33.73 and current $39.11 (6/21/2013 - 12:41PM).
    Jun 21 12:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pension Fantasy Returns [View instapost]
    RMIT, to clarify, my assumption percentages above are expected rates of return over the medium-term for each class. If I follow your logic there is one very important danger in your (Brinker's) approach given the current low interest rate environment. A lower interest rate as a divisor will augment the "phantom fixed income" allocation you mention. The risk being that investors may draw a dangerous conclusion and allocate too much into riskier assets (read stocks). Rules of thumb are great but they assume "normal" environments. Given the Fed and other central bank "steroid" induced capital markets, we are not in a "normal" market environment. I would say that rules of thumb in this environment have to be carefully scrutinized. Thanks for your comment!
    Apr 12 11:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • US Government Debt Downgrade? [View instapost]
    Fitch issues warning today.
    Jan 15 11:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Technicals Breaking [View instapost]
    UPDATE: As of today's preliminary close - S&P 500 is lower since the above post and has now closed below its 200-DMA (1377.51 < 1380.71). The VXX position was closed on 10/24/12 @ 37.442 employing a trailing stop order and the SPXU position was trimmed by 10% on 11/6/12 to size hedge appropriately and be tactical. Some tactical option monetization strategies around SPXU were employed between 10/24/12 and 11/6/12). Monetization and dividend/interest proceeds were reinvested in Thematic, Fundamental and Arbitrage exposures. As of this posting still maintaining some of the initial Beta-Hedges for absolute return portfolio albeit 90% of initial hedging position. Will assess environment to actively manage long positions as well as hedges.
    Nov 8 04:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Catch A Volatility Butterfly? [View instapost]
    This posting was submitted to be posted as an article. Due to editorial feedback it was subsequently posted as an Instablog to minimize delay. The original posting had been submitted Sunday 2/12/2012.
    Feb 14 10:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Recession of 2011? [View article]
    A different take but still in favor of the possibility of being in a recession already:
    Aug 23 01:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Macro Views [View instapost]
    While most analysts had expected ca. 2.5% when this was published back in June 22nd, my central forecast was 1.5%. The recently released 2nd quarter GDP figure came in at 1.3% while the average consensus stood at 1.9%. The revisions I called for materialized but consensus had not revised downwards enough and was still overly optimistic. The 1st quarter revision to GDP at 0.4% was a real eye opener to many. The second half will likely continue to be challenged and the headwinds continue to gain momentum. Read my "Austerity for Posterity?" post for the impact Government spending cuts can have.
    Jul 29 09:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Systemic Risk Rising as a Result of Possible Treasury Default/Downgrade [View instapost]
    Some confirmation....
    Jul 27 04:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Using Options to Generate Income in a High Yield Portfolio [View instapost]
    You missed a third important risk - the covered call writer could still face principal loss. In the absolute worst case scenario where the underlying stock goes to zero the covered call writer would experience a loss of Stock Price paid minus premium(s) received from options. I would also suggest folks consider if an option is in the money and if the underlying stock may be close to going ex-dividend as this may likely increase chances of being called away before expiration date.
    Jul 9 12:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment