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International Trading
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  • Exceed: A Real Business Trading at an Unreal Valuation [View article]
    I'm still shocked people believe that Wen Jiabao's son will protect them from massive losses. This was/is a rumor spread among clueless funds and retail guys. From NH it was Jianming Yu who was involved, he was a managing partner of NH and an indirect stockholder of the 2020 vehicle. In addition Wen Jiabao's son doesn't even work for NH anymore, he works at China Aerospace & Technology.

    Do you guys know how large NH is? I bet Wen's son never even knew what EDS was.
    Aug 11, 2011. 12:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Puda Coal Chairman Sells Half the Company; Pledges the Other Half to Chinese PE Investors [View article]
    LLEN also claims to buy these ultra cheap mines, 2-3x EBITDA I believe, but then again they have Kabani and refuse to upgrade after shareholders (myself included) hassled them for months. I also hear their filings don't match.

    I dumped my L&L shares months ago
    Apr 13, 2011. 03:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Confessions of an RTO Addict [View instapost]
    Finding a legitimate RTO is like finding the needle in the haystack, except the needle is the same color as the hay. The problem is it is nearly impossible to prove a company is legit. Because companies can use quite sophisticated schemes such as overpaying for a machine then receiving a kickback from the machine seller that goes into managements pocket. Companies could also hide operating expenses as other things and inflate their profitability. There are literally 100's of things management could do to steal money from shareholders and checking all of these takes months of onground DD. Even for those that spend months onground they still can be tricked like Hank Greenberg in CCME. Because of this it is impossible to be sure a company isn't a fraud. So I advise no one to buy and hold these stocks. You can trade them short term, but realize your playing hot potato with a grenade.

    75% is just an estimate based on what I believe is occurring.

    I will give companies recommendations if they pass basic DD, but getting companies to cooperate is suprisingly difficult.
    Apr 11, 2011. 02:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Confessions of an RTO Addict [View instapost]
    They all generally are considered RTO stocks, even though some actually aren't such as CELM or L&L. The risk in RTO stocks comes from the complete lack of financial controls and corporate governance, which creates doubt to the accuracy of financial statements. Of the above list I'm sure at least 50% are frauds, but as time unfolds I'm sure that number will creep much higher.
    Apr 3, 2011. 03:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SinoHub Share Price Should See Slow but Steady Appreciation [View article]
    Unfortunately my DD plans are currently stalled by the company. As personally, for a company with only 2 FIE subsidiaries, pulling local filings is the best DD one can do. As visiting on site is only beneficial if the company is a complete fraud, except even then on site visitors can be tricked as companies have staged operations to fool investors. Personally I'm paranoid about illegal activity that makes a company appear more profitable than they really are, such as hiding operating expenses in CAPEX. And these are all impossible to find by anything other than pulling the local filings.
    Currently I have no reason to doubt the companies financials, although I find their VP's actions sketchy, unprofessional, and insulting.
    I'm currently long although I did sell just a tiny bit today. If i find out anything I'll post it publicly, whether its good or bad.
    Mar 30, 2011. 08:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SinoHub Share Price Should See Slow but Steady Appreciation [View article]
    This company either has bipolar management or is a fraud. I was talking to their VP of investor relations, asking if the company would cooperate with my DD. Doug Menelly was initially professional and courteous inviting me to visit their facilities and meet with management. Once I asked if I could have an employee meet them at the local tax office to access the documents he instantly flipped out, refusing.

    Message me if you want his email and we can find out if I just contacted him at a bad time or if he refuses to allow investors to access their financials.
    Mar 30, 2011. 03:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CHGS  [View instapost]
    CHGS has popped again on the same rumors, its time to bet against it. You can't find shares to borrow, so I'm playing it with the 5 puts, which essentially give me short leverage.
    Mar 23, 2011. 02:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 7 Potential Buys Based on Valuation [View article]
    No sane investor would touch this stock now (JoeNat is a trader for anyone who doesn't know).
    Lets see
    1. After DT found irregularities in the cash accounts of CCME that they apparently missed earlier, how can you trust Sherb's verification procedures when DT is 10x better and they were fooled.
    2. These latest acquisitions demonstrate management has no interest in creating shareholder value, they pay roughly 6x earnings for this latest facility when they could buyback their own stock at 3x earnings. This buckback would not only increase EPS more effectively than this overpriced acquisition, but it also would increase shareholder confidence and therefore price. THERE IS NO REASON THEY SHOULD HAVE BOUGHT THIS LATEST FACILITY.
    3. Everyone I talk to who visits the facilities says there is no possible way this company is legitimate (as presented in SEC filings), and now they'll go on an acquisition spree to attempt to cover their tracks.
    Mar 17, 2011. 04:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China MediaExpress Holdings: Options Market Suggests Future Is Bleak [View article]
    Ian thanks for the 3rd grader math, logic, and reasoning. I hope your purpose in writing this was to demonstrate your complete absence of option trading knowledge and implied vols. You say "This is not a sufficient explanation, though, as most hard-to-short stocks don't have the same sort of absurd implied volatility skew that CCME presently has," here you apparently don't realize there are NO shares available to short, so anyone wishing to bet bearishly has no choice buy to pile in to the clearly overpriced puts. In addition if you somehow manage to find shares to short, which today is like pulling an elephant out of a hat, you will pay 60%+ to borrow them. Therefore sellers pile into puts rather than pay this. In addition you fail to realize that because there are no more shares available to be used to manipulate the price, short sellers have resorted to buying puts as a way of forcing market makers to hedge their exposure by shorting naked, which effectively controls the stock price.
    These manipulation games can't go on forever, the clean 10K and heavy institutional buying will result in the most massive short squeeze you'll ever see.
    Long June 10's and common
    Mar 3, 2011. 10:48 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CHGS  [View instapost]
    CHGS is NOT a non-met bauxite play, as rising prices actuallly hurt their profitability. Bauxite is a key raw material for CHGS and considering they have no long term sourcing contracts or their own reserves, higher bauxite will hurt their margins.

    The stock has already dropped 33% in the few weeks since I wrote this article and is now at 3.36. I reiterate my message to longs,"Get out while you can before this crashes."
    Jan 17, 2011. 09:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment