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azgog

azgog
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  • Why Tesla Is Poised To Leave Its Competition In The Dust [View article]
    Wood was superseded by coal. Coal was superseded by oil. Oil is being superseded by natural gas. Natural gas will be superseded by direct solar generation. So gas tanks will be replaced by batteries. Super simple.
    Aug 16 12:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: The One Major Item That Concerns Me [View article]
    Tesla is a "vision" company and much of the stock purchase is based on belief in that vision. Those who can afford the car and are very happy with it and the company's strategy are likely stockholders. Then there are many senior investors who can see the rapidly upcoming crises of oil depletion and climate change and choose to put their money into a real effort to change things. These are the longs who have both faith and patience.

    Is this a bad thing? Tesla needs a huge capital investment to carry out their vision, so can use all the support it can get. Having a real built-in-America product is also different from the overpopulation of companies whose business case is based on some social media app or obscure slant on a web service.

    It remains a big gamble and risk (one fatal flaw or surprise competitor could take it down), but from the build-a-better-world point of view would you rather invest in arms manufacturers or ponzi-like hedge funds?
    Aug 12 12:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Order Backlog And Why It Is Worth More Than Porsche [View article]
    I have long thought that the waiting list, WITH paid deposits, is the key to Tesla's long term success. Zero advertising costs, advance financing of production by customers. Any other manufacturers out there with anything comparable?
    Aug 7 05:36 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The rubber starts to meet the road with Tesla Motors [View news story]
    I predict a major oil supply dislocation by 2017, if not sooner. Then Tesla will be able to set whatever price they need for the Model3.
    Jul 31 04:01 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Needs To Rethink Its Charging Network [View article]
    Apart from low speed/limited range NEVs all successful interstate capable EVs will have a range of over 200 miles or more (as batteries improve). The only chargers they will need are the home overnight charger and access to a SC network for road trips. Only SC charge rates will work for this purpose, anything less is impractically slow.

    So why bother?
    Jul 30 12:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Real Problem: Energy Density [View article]
    Energy density is a valid point, tempered significantly by the much higher efficiency in the use of that energy by an EV, including regeneration that is not possible in an ICE.

    However, the efficiency of gas is fairly fixed while battery technology seems to advance daily, if not hourly. A battery cell is a small, discreet device that can be improved by the efforts of thousands of researchers working globally. Remember the first brick phones?
    Jul 28 12:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: The Hustle And Bustle In Palo Alto [View article]
    Problem: All these new MS and MX's cued up at a Supercharger station?

    Solution: More charging bays, within 6 weeks.

    Easy.
    Jul 27 11:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: What About The Model X? [View article]
    Oil is a finite and diminishing resource. Many older fields are nearing exhaustion and new ones are much more costly to develop. Once the temporary spike from fracking is over the only option will be climate destroying low yield shale deposits.

    Meanwhile wind and solar costs are coming down and deployment is increasing, so electricity is getting cleaner and prices will be more stable than petroleum. It also does not have the geopolitical risk of oil dependence. The move to EVs and PHEVs is well underway, with Tesla in the lead. I wonder how many buyers have the possibility of gas price spikes, shortages and rationing in the back of their minds.
    Jul 23 11:56 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Will The Model 3 Make A Mark? [View article]
    The price of oil is likely to increase more and faster than the cost of electricity, increasing the advantage of EVs. Meanwhile competition and volume production will drive their price down. At the same time pollution and climate change effects will encourage more governmental incentives, subsidies and tax exemptions.

    So there are 3 major trends all working for EVs and against ICEs. Then there is the existential risk of the current geopolitical tinderbox actually erupting in a way that could bring on gas shortages and rationing. At that point the value of all produced and in-production EVs skyrockets.
    Jul 19 01:31 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Gigafactory: Are Investors' Fears Justified [View article]
    Remember that Tesla still has first mover advantage in battery technology, having notably the only battery able to propel a fairly heavy vehicle at 70mph for over 250 miles, be capable of a one hour recharge (at SC stations), while having at least an 8 year lifetime. This pack has been developed and proven over the last 10 years, starting with the Roadster. Any alternative chemistry would need a similar amount of time to match this.

    Meanwhile the GF should be capable of at least 30% cost reduction based on volume and automated assembly.
    Jul 18 11:10 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Is It Really Panic Time? [View article]
    As long as there is a waiting list (with deposits) for MS and MX the actual distribution of sales and deliveries is a moot point. It just has to stay ahead of production increases.

    However the drivetrain warranty issue is important, I would like to hear Tesla's explanation. And the M3 in 2017 will depend on the battery factory not yet under construction. Uncertainty will prevail until this is a reality, despite Tesla's good record of fulfilling its guidance thus far.
    Jul 17 11:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • In The Land Of Irrelevant Numbers, Tesla Puts Down A Stake [View article]
    Superchargers are purposely located where they will only be useful to road trippers, all other owners wake up to a fully charged Tesla every morning. Now they have 250+ miles of range, more than enough for a couple of days of average around town use.

    The first Supercharger in this area just opened about 60 miles west of Spokane. There is another in Ellensburg, so the Spokane to Seattle route (280 miles including a major mountain pass over the Cascades) is now perfectly practical, at a fraction of the cost of gasoline.

    Since most owners charge at home overnight, all that is needed is one SC every 100-150 miles. This is rapidly becoming the reality.
    Jul 10 06:27 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Model E enters the Tesla equation [View news story]
    I suspect that the more reasonably priced new model is well along the way to final configuration. Elon says it will essentially be a down sized version of the MS, so will share many now fully tested design aspects.
    Jul 3 04:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: I'm Not Buying The Norway Nonsense [View article]
    Just imagine what would happen to the waiting list if Tesla started even a limited advertising campaign that highlighted the lower fuel cost, lower maintenance costs, higher safety levels, high customer satisfaction ratings, Supercharger network, etc.

    Time it to the start of Model X AWD production. Then stand back as thousands of new customer deposits pour in. They won't actually advertise of course, because they don't need to. Plus, given present production constraints it would be a negative customer relations issue.
    Jul 3 11:34 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Gigafactory And Why Competitors Should Worry [View article]
    As ISIS brings on regional war in the Oil Zone prices will rise. A car that is independent of that will command a premium. We can make electricity from domestic resources. EVs are looking better every day.
    Jul 1 09:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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