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mmytacist

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  • I Concede Defeat In Amazon.com [View article]
    I agree with the bears. I love everything Paulo writes regarding Amazon. Yet several quarters back I decided to stop trying to short AMZN and instead buy calls the day before every earnings announcement. And I have made a bundle since then. I don't have to take long term positions in a company who's financials I can't defend. In just a day or two I can make 25-60% on my investment. My cash account assuages my conscience.
    Oct 25, 2013. 03:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors' Full Analysis 2.0 [View article]
    Source for $32,500 as the price for the Gen III? Run your spreadsheet with a $40K and $50K model, too for comparison.

    If most people in the developed world drive just 25 miles per day, how do you justify the extra $2K paid for the supercharger access? (the delta in cost for a 65kWH battery with access and without, so let's assume it's built into the cost of the 85kWH battery) . For the 85kWH battery, didn't you just throw away $2K of fuel savings ---- the equivalent of 2 years savings for the mid size sedan?

    Is range important, or isn't it? Is price more important? Why compare the range of a Leaf to the range of a Model S, but reject a comparison of the range of a premium car to a Model S? Among the EV's, it looks like a linear relationship between range and cost. If your ego is not involved such that you must have the "best car evuh!", and you drive only 25 miles per day on average, why would you NOT take an EV at a lesser price that meets your needs? Looking down on the parking structures here at my high end silicon valley tech company, I see 7 vehicles charging, 4 of which are Leaf's and none of which are Model S...

    Lastly, is performance really that important except as a marketing device? Really? Is the Model S performance just a side effect of the higher power battery/ electric motor combo, or could the cost be brought down by reducing the performance to say 100 mph top speed and 0-60 in 5 sec? Ever seen the fine for exceeding 100mph on a CA freeway?

    I'm really behind Tesla 100%. As a motorcycle rider 99.5% of the time, I would love to see what the engineers there could come up with but I realize that market is probably too small. But until a Gen III comes up in your $32K price range, the Tesla is out of my league as a backup vehicle.
    Jul 3, 2013. 04:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Battery Swap - What We Really Saw [View article]
    Your math doesn't work. It might be true on a continuous production line at something like Dunkin' Donuts, but not on the factory line shown in the National Geographic video of the Tesla plant. There are discrete stations where atomic operations are performed. Unless every station can be reduced by the same order of magnitude, then a mulitple speed-up is not possible.

    The only way to get a mulitple of the production throughput is to add another entire new line (or at least multiples of the stations that take longest).
    Jun 22, 2013. 05:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Battery Swap Is A No-Go [View article]
    I watched the video and I heard Elon say "we found the fastest gas station in LA, 10 gal/min". I didn't understand why the fill-up was taking sooo long. But it's there at the end if you look: the guy put 23 gallons into his Audi! I used to have a Econoline van that took 25 gallons---how did they find a passenger sedan that would take 23 gallons?

    So a normal car fill up is approximately 12-16 gallons and would compete in duration very well with the 90 sec swap being touted. The whole display was a bit disingenuous. However I agree that this should be looked at as a proof of concept that may benefit fleet vehicles more than passenger vehicles.

    I am behind Tesla and want to see them succeed! I'll gladly exchange (some) range and performance if I can get this in a (Gen III) $30K package.
    Jun 21, 2013. 04:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Build A Generation 3 Tesla [View article]
    "a bit of time"? Decades. The price may be coming down but until we see commercialization of some current research into advanced materials for batteries, getting 700 miles on a charge (assuming the same physical dimensions for the packaging) is ludicrous.
    Jun 20, 2013. 03:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: A Short Sellers Dream Stock? [View article]
    On point 2: since the majority of Tesla Model S owners either paid the $2K in their model choice, or added it to the base level, how do you figure you get free electricity at the supercharger stations? Worse, since many here have commented that it wouldn't be worth it to drive to the supercharger station to fill up, doesn't that make your limited use of the facility equate to a cost per equivalent mile much higher than gasoline?

    Beside the supercharger, there is a very real hassle with home top-offs here in CA when you are under PG&E's thumb. Right here in Silicon Valley, PG&E has different rates based on usage quantities as well as time of day and season. Although there are two experimental plans that lower the cost of electricity use between midnite and 5am to the ~$0.05 level, those plans add three time of day tiers and then jack the usage rates during the other 19 hours of the day. Read for yourself in the Tesla forums the consternation of CA Tesla owners that faced $300+ electric bills on first purchasing their rides. (Not unique to Tesla of course as I have heard the same lamentation from Volt owners).

    And while it's true Solar City can come out and offer you a fixed rate electric plan, there is a cost and inconvenience associated with that, too.

    So while appreciate the economics of EV might be a slam dunk in some areas of the country (maybe even most areas of the country) the true cost of switching is not free, easy to realize nor straightforward given other energy usage for a typical family. It would require thoughtful and sustained lifestyle changes on electrical usage throughout your lifestyle. That, combined with the steep $100K (typical) purchase price of a Model S is a lot of bias to overcome.
    Jun 19, 2013. 04:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: A Short Sellers Dream Stock? [View article]
    Loans were paid off from a secondary offering windfall made possible by stock price run-up via short squeeze.
    Jun 19, 2013. 04:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Requires Patience And Options [View article]
    Dolt, re-read. Don't be blinded by your zealotry. A supercharger is free if you by the 85KW Tesla Model S. The 65kW does not have free supercharger. I sincerely doubt the Gen III will get the supercharger for free. And depending on the timing, the federal and state rebates might not exist. Given the (alleged) lower cost of the Gen III, it is doubtful the range will be the same as the Model S (unless there is some great breakthrough in batteries that makes them more efficient which is unlikely; we'll only see incremental improvements).
    Jun 13, 2013. 04:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Requires Patience And Options [View article]
    I am sure Musk is making the Tesla zealots sit on the edge of their chairs, but for the rest of us the car might as well be made from unobtanium. When the price get's below $40K and includes a federal/state rebate and includes free supercharger, as well as at least 200 mile range, I will believe the hype.

    Until then, Tesla marketing should have advertised 9 airbags for the Model S instead of 8 to account for the drivers/investors...
    Jun 12, 2013. 07:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's "still possible" for H-P (HPQ +4.7%) to deliver revenue growth in FY14 (ends Oct. '14), says Meg Whitman in a CNBC appearance (video) that has brought the IT giant's shares to within pennies of their 52-week high. Analysts currently expect H-P's FY14 sales to fall 2.2% in FY14, after declining 7.4% in FY13. Whitman also admits H-P's struggling PC ops remains the company's "biggest wild card," and (in spite of intense competition) says H-P needs to expand its mobile offerings to "other operating systems" (Android seems a good bet). (yesterday[View news story]
    "Pigs fly possible in 2014".
    Jun 12, 2013. 03:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple (AAPL -0.3%) announces iTunes Radio, its expected Pandora (P +3.2%) rival. The service is normally ad-supported, but is ad-free for iTunes Match ($25/year) subs. It supports Pandora-like station building and sharing, is integrated with iOS' Music app, and gives users the option to buy songs. Pandora has turned positive after trading lower earlier. Also: 1) Siri has been overhauled, and now includes Wikipedia/Twitter content, Bing (MSFT) results, and both male and female voices. 2) Apple launches iOS in the Car, a solution that mirrors iPhone content on in-car displays and is supported by 12 automakers. 3) iOS 7 also brings automatic app updates, a Photos app with automatic sorting and Instagram-like filters, and AirDrop file-sharing. (previous) (live blog[View news story]
    Because this is the most boring and non-innovative WWDC in a decade or more...
    Jun 10, 2013. 04:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Supercharger Network Is A Great Investment For Tesla [View article]
    It ain't a magic carpet. I don't open the hood of my Honda except to change the oil and filter. Haven't done anything else in there for 100K miles. Let's get a few model S with 100K on them and compare notes then.

    Besides, do you know what the part costs are going to be when the time comes to replace consumables? Luxury cars like BMW have a pretty steep cost when it comes to any replacement item. Do you think a Tesla Model S won't?
    Jun 5, 2013. 12:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Supercharger Network Is A Great Investment For Tesla [View article]
    Sure, you won't have to change the oil or transmission fluid. But you've still got brakes, brake fluid, brake pads, rotors, suspension/bushings, power steering fluid, electromechanical relays/ecu/electrical systems, tires, air filter for the cabin, AC systems.... you have more in common with the ICE auto than you have unique when thinking about potential failure points.
    Jun 4, 2013. 12:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Ambitious SuperCharger Infrastructure Build Is SuperExpensive [View article]
    Tesla is this decade's Segway.

    Until we see a $40K model with 250 mile range + supercharger access, Tesla will be nothing more than another example of conspicuous consumption among the privileged 10%.
    Jun 3, 2013. 01:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bizarro World Of Tesla Longs [View article]
    Just me---all the Tesla Model S vehicles I see on the road here in Silicon Valley (there are a lot) are solo driver during commute hour, so I think that's fair. Unfortunate benefit of the conspicuous consumption the Model S represents allows these rolling cages to clog the HOV lane with solo drivers. Great entitlement for the wealthy.
    May 29, 2013. 04:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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