Seeking Alpha

waytoobigtofail

waytoobigtofail
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View waytoobigtofail's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • General Mills: 'Buy Zone' Entry Point And Valuation Analysis [View article]
    OWNED!
    Jun 29 09:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Mills: 'Buy Zone' Entry Point And Valuation Analysis [View article]
    As a small investor in this company (only 55 shares), I can say I've been happy with the steadiness of the earnings and the consistency of the management. While I agree that the price is heavier than I would like right now (considering that I bought at $42). I don't see Kellogg's, PG, or any other comparables giving much of a yield advantage, so I'm not really in a rush to trade up.

    I agree with the analysis of this article that it is a little expensive. I would not buy the shares at the current price, but I might at $51, as the article suggests. That said, I like the dividend, the steady earnings, and the defensive characteristics of the stock, so it's a boring hold for me.
    Jun 19 10:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Bombardier Could Benefit From Russia-Ukraine And Should Also Change Its Strategy [View article]
    No, I wasn't aware that a machine made of various parts powered by a jet engine might be complicated, thanks for informing me of that. It's fine to take your time, but deliver on your timelines. Don't say something will take X years if it will really take Y, it makes you look like you can't manage your $hit - and guess what, customers depend on those timelines.
    Obviously I prefer safe planes to rushed delivery, but give the proper timelines ffs.
    May 7 09:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Bombardier Could Benefit From Russia-Ukraine And Should Also Change Its Strategy [View article]
    This article makes a good point if this theory is true. That said, I can't say I have too much confidence in the management of this company. Why can't they ever deliver a plane on time? why is everything they plan on testing perpetually delayed from the given target dates? It's so frustrating, as a shareholder, to watch this company sit on its own balls over and over again. As soon as I get back to breakeven on this, I'm selling.
    May 1 08:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Few Reasons Why I Am Bullish On Amazon [View article]
    Value investors seem to agree that AMZN is absurdly expensive, by any standard. The only reason to buy this stock is the reasoning that the next guy in line will be willing to pay more for it. Unless the company starts actually earning money, I mean real money, like at least $10-15 per share, the stock will eventually crash, or at a minimum, stagnate. What good are massive revenues for the investor if they're spent on expenses? When can an investor reasonably hope to see any money back from this company?


    As I said before, the magic of this stock is that no matter how poor the earnings are, you can make money off it because the next guy in line always seems to be willing to pay more for it. I'm not though.
    Mar 11 12:48 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bombardier Inc.A CEO Discusses Q4 2013 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    I think of bombardier now as the sideshow bob of aviation stocks - constantly stepping onto that next rake and perpetually destined to repeat the same mistakes over and over. Just put the work in, plan your processes, and set the proper expectations to deliver your products when you say you will... what is the problem over there? Why can't you guys just make your planes on time at least some of the time? Boeing does it, Embraer, Airbus too... what is with you guys over there at bombardier? It's so frustrating to own these shares, and watch them just tank because these guys can't meet the demand that is just sitting on the table for them to take.
    Mar 4 10:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Amazon Bubble: Why I'm Not A Believer [View article]
    Fun to come back and read these. Hello from early 2014! Where AMZN trades for around $400, but still doesn't make any profit! oh, sorry, let me give credit where credit is due - where AMZN makes $0.28 per share for a P/E around 1400, but investors don't care. I'm wondering how long this company can continue to make little or no earnings without investors punishing the stock. It seems like they can do no wrong
    Jan 14 09:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Good Economic Reasons To Favor Amazon.com Today [View article]
    My thoughts mirror Paulo Santos' and have for some time. But I am also convinced that the market can stay irrational far longer than I can stay solvent (as a short), so I have neglected to make a play. If another year goes by and this price growth has continued with AMZN hitting, say, $550 with a P/E of 2000 or so, I might then consider a short position.
    On every traditional fundamental metric, with the exception of *maybe* the Price to Sales ratio, this stock is grossly overvalued. Currently, AMZN P/B = 19.8, P/E = 1458, P/S = 2.58. The average of these ratios for the S&P 500 right now are P/B = 2.66, P/E = 17.7, P/S = 1.62 (so even the sales are expensive, in spite of the low margins, though justified presumably by high growth). Realistically, AMZN has very little or no chance of ever realizing earnings that will allow its ratios to approach to these average ratios, which, IMO reflect rules of thumb for FAIR valuations. For the P/E to get in line with ratio, it would have to go from its trailing $0.28 per share to $20.59 per share. Tough to do when people only buy from you for cheap prices, and you have to ship everything to clients individually.
    I'm quite positive that this stock will drop like a stone at some point, but when, I cannot say. The madness might keep going for another 5 years for all I know - maybe it'll go to $1000 and still make earnings under $1.00 sprinkled with quarterly losses here and there, who knows. For now, I know they pretty much don't make any money, and investors are okay with that because there's always somebody else in line willing to pay more for the stock in spite of that. How long can that go on? 6 months? A year? 2 years? 5? 10? I have no idea, but at some point, it will come crashing down, I have no doubt.
    Dec 23 10:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Continued Pain Makes Dundee International More Compelling [View article]
    Agree with all of this.

    1) interest rates go up, real estate becomes more expensive, and REITs cannot grow as easily because acquisitions are pricier
    2) If the intended holding period is a couple years, then the price shouldn't matter to you, unless you think it accurately reflects a deficiency in the fund (and potentially, a default).

    I think this fund brings in enough cash to cover its expenses and then some (including unitholder payments), at least according to their financial statements. Second, even if the fund got into cash trouble, I believe Dundee Wealth would do everything in its power to prevent a default - such an event would clearly signal that all funds under the Dundee umbrella are at risk of default, which would cripple the market price of every one of their funds.

    So if you like high yields and have confident in this company's ability to make its payments, this is a great buy, especially at this price. If you are not confident in Dundee's ability to cover the payments and find issue with their cash management and question the conglomerate's solvency, than maybe steer clear. Either way, make your own decision based on the fundamentals and ignore what the charts are telling you.
    Dec 17 05:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't sleep on General Mills [View news story]
    Been holding it since 42. Maybe should have let it go as it approached 53, when it was hyped up. If I was looking to buy more of it though, I would wait for it to get back down to at least the $49 mark though. it's a safe play though - earnings and dividends have grown at a rate in the high single digits for the past 30 years (even through recessions). On top of that, they've only missed 3 of their quarterly dividend payments in that time, and each has been equal to or greater than the previous one. Good defensive stock, and well priced relative to earnings, compared to POST (POST very overpriced, imo), PG, K.
    Dec 6 01:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Not Consider This Undervalued Oil Player With A 4.70% Yield For The Long-Term? [View article]
    long 28 shares for a while. bought at 71 USD, like a dummy (should have waited for a downswing). lucky for me, I'm Canadian and bought in USD, so the currency return has made this a slightly positive investment for me. I agree that the dividend is nice, and at a little over 9x earnings, the price is right, but I don't see it moving around much. nevertheless, the stability and the dividend make it a hold for me.
    Oct 30 01:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Worrying Wednesday: How Low Can Apple Go? [View article]
    Funny to see these comments from a couple months ago. If my time machine wasn't in the shop, I'd write a post about how the stock is not yet done dropping, that that it will end up at around $420 in late February/early March. It closed at 452 today, and I took a long position at $453 a couple months ago. I think most people would agree that based on fundamentals and even with a 0 growth assumption, this stock is undervalued. The low pricing is taking into account the market's concern that a serious decline in growth is coming, like something devastating. Every day, there's a new article written about how awesome Samsung is, and how apple is falling behind. My personal opinion is that Samsung makes a great product and is a great competitor, but it doesn't seem plausible to me that iphones are just going to stop selling, or even abruptly stop growing altogether. I believe the rate of growth will slow, that makes sense considering how impressive past growth has been, but 0 growth seems... a little overly dramatic and pessimistic. If you agree with me on that, you should be long apple. If you think apple products are that far behind, and expect iphones to sink into total oblivion, then stay away or short it I guess. Time will tell
    Mar 21 11:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google (GOOG +0.5%) has passed Apple (AAPL +0.3%) as the biggest holding among the top 50 actively-managed U.S. mutual funds, according to a Citi report. Google is also now the top holding among hedge funds - a slew of major hedge funds either pared back or fully unwound their Apple positions in Q4. After backing out net cash/investments, Google now trades at 15.5x 2013E EPS, and Apple at just 6.3x FY13E EPS. [View news story]
    obviously google is awesome so it should trade at P/E of 999999. Apple sux tho, so it should trade at P/E of 1. shorting Aapl until it hits $45 per share, and going long on Goog until it's worth $eleventy billion per share.
    Mar 8 12:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Mr. Market Should Be Looking At Apple's Cash Flow Rather Than Its Profits [View article]
    Calculated FCFF to be $55,401 mil for eoy2012.
    - with growth rate of 0, and WACC of 12%, firm PV is $456,547
    - divide that by 936.8 shares outstanding
    - stock price is $487.24 under these assumptions

    Obviously these are some pretty damning assumptions though; 12% WACC is prohibitive, 0 growth is harsh and unlikely, but I guess the market thinks it will actually shrink, based on the current share price and this hefty discount rate. Basically this math shows numerically what you should be reasoning qualitatively anyway: if you think aapl can at least maintain its earnings at steady levels, go long on it. if you think it will shrink significantly, go short on it.

    FCFF math:
    55401 = CFO - Gross Fixed Capital investment + interestexp*(1-T)
    = 56,728 - (23,200 -21,900) + 0 (no debt or interest expense)
    Mar 5 06:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Will Fix Apple's Declining Shares? Patience, Time, And Faith In Management [View article]
    boo, bought at 450. holding though. give it a year, and something in the low 500 range seems likely.
    Mar 4 03:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
15 Comments
14 Likes