Seeking Alpha

Vick13

Vick13
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Vick13's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Netflix Is No Stranger To The Pivot [View article]
    Marshall,

    You are distorting your personal assumptions with reality.

    "Netflix offers consumers the ability to watch TV on demand at a tenth the price of cable." This is such a naive statement. Consumers still have to pay for delivery?! Assuming NFLX is the only thing you order and you don not watch sports or other real time programming, the cost 'might be' half.

    Furthermore, their debt is increasing and so are their off-sheet liabilities.
    Read Boris' article http://seekingalpha.co...

    Free Cash Flow vs. Net Income.
    As its high-margin DVD business continues to decline, it will cause further deterioration in Netflix's free cash flow… forcing the firm to take on additional debt to help fund operations. Free cash flow shrunk dramatically from 2009 $86.1m // 2013 ($-22.2m)

    There has been a significant deterioration of free cash flow since FY11. But what is even more interesting is that Netflix's net income has remained relatively stable during this time. In other words, the earnings quality (difference between net income and free cash flow) is getting worse.

    Long-Term Debt + Content Liabilities
    "Netflix now has to raise $400 million of new debt in 1Q14 in order to have enough cash to continue buying expensive content. Following this new debt raise, Netflix will have $900 million in long-term debt. The company also has $3.1 billion of content liabilities on the balance sheet, and an additional $4.1 billion of off-balance sheet content liabilities. In total, long-term debt + content liabilities will now exceed $8 billion. It is important to mention that any content obligations with variable-term agreements (e.g. unknown price or number of titles to be received) are not included in the total content liabilities figure, however, these "unknown content liabilities" are likely in the billions as well."

    Two things that are definite. Their expenses aren't going down and competition is getting any easier. Bottom line, this stock is the most volatile NASDAQ stock in the last 3 yrs and while is could hit $540/shr, I'm in the $100/shr camp as the whole space is disrupted and a number of big players are competing for content & delivery.
    Mar 11, 2014. 12:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Revenue Forecast 2014 - 2030 [View article]
    "Based on my very rough estimates of Netflix's future revenue, the company appears to be relatively fairly valued at its current price. " Thanks for the levity.
    Mar 6, 2014. 11:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is Still Wildly Undervalued [View article]
    You always have to have the last word that's your problem Boshie.

    1. THEY DO NOT OWN ANY CONTENT AS OF TODAY!!!!!!!
    2. THE VAST MAJORITY OF SUBSCRIBERS PAY FOR AN INTERNET CONNECTION,,,IT AVGS WELL OVER $50
    3. THE ERODING DVD BUSINESS IS GOING TO KILL THE BEST MARGINS, BAR FAR
    4. GET A JOB!!!
    Feb 21, 2014. 01:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is Still Wildly Undervalued [View article]
    There's also flaws in your statement Bohsie. 1. you know they don't own the content, they license it. 2. it's not $10/month unless you have a magic ISP. 3. cutting the cord from the DVD business is eroding their biggest contribution margin (by far). & 4. most importantly, SA should limit the # of subjective comments guys like you make on this site!
    Feb 19, 2014. 09:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Second season of House of Cards delivers for Netflix [View news story]
    Unless you're on of the unfortunate subscribers like myself who's streaming, buffering is now 14% slower on Verizon which aggravates the viewing experience and gives it 2/5 stars!
    Feb 19, 2014. 09:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: Why The Giant (P/E Ratio) Must Fall [View article]
    There's just one slight difference between AMZN vs. APPL or GOOG,,,the latter companies make a lot of money and AMZN doesn't make squat!
    Feb 12, 2014. 05:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is Still Wildly Undervalued [View article]
    Dear Brian,

    Thanks for your contribution. HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA,,,That's the funniest material I've read in weeks!
    Feb 12, 2014. 04:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Quantifying The Floor And Ceiling For Amazon [View article]
    Gee, the analysts are beginning to use their 20/20 hindsight as the stock falls from grace,,,what a surprise!
    Feb 12, 2014. 11:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quantifying The Floor And Ceiling For Amazon [View article]
    Oh contrar Gar!!!
    Feb 12, 2014. 11:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: Why The Giant (P/E Ratio) Must Fall [View article]
    Thanks Chuck.

    I filed a complaint with the SEC and that is something you should consider as well.

    I specifically pointed out they fact that they are over-inflating sales revenue growth based on the "new" way they book 3P revenues at 100% growth. It wouldn't be an issue if they'd disclose in there earnings announcements, Q&A's that these added revenues have no material affect on their bottom line whatsoever.

    SEC did respond to me back and said that while they have no specific complaints, charges against AMZN at this time, they always "try" and make an effort to collect potential and evaluate potential information that violate standard business, accounting practices.

    In my opinion the hall passes Bezos has received from the investment community cronies is
    b.s. Accountability is essential and they are infamous for sidestepping!
    Feb 8, 2014. 04:36 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon's Long-Term Prospects Are Still Strong Despite A Recent Market Sell-Off [View article]
    I ain't an old guard and whether you realize it or not AMZN is in the B&M business and are adding millions of sq ft as we speak. The problem is they still haven't lowered the fulfillment costs.
    Feb 6, 2014. 04:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon's Riding High On The Cloud [View article]
    GREAT SERVICES, HORRIBLE STOCK AT $400
    Feb 6, 2014. 10:45 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon's Long-Term Prospects Are Still Strong Despite A Recent Market Sell-Off [View article]
    Victor, paint it anyway you want. Because that is exactly what the company is doing by sandbagging their 3rd party sales revenue and floating accounts payable to finance their cash flow!

    AMZN has ridden the growth, momentum, innovation story for many quarters...Finally the street is having to admit that key metrics are shrinking including growth and margins while variable costs such as labor, delivery and taxes are increasing.

    As NYer1 suggests they have no price elasticity giving the fact they are as you say, "the world's most customer-centric company" largely due to low price. Also, if they are going to raise Prime by $40, what do you think the attrition will be (given NFLX's disastrous attempt to raise price)?

    It's apparent that they continue to (desperately?) seeks sales revenue in spite of profits just to keep the story alive in the hopes that many of their competitors will go out of business and they will gain enough market share that the profit paradigm will shift.

    It's not AMZN's fault the stock has had a parabolic rise, it's the institutional ownership. I believe a much needed correction is healthy until, to NYer1's point, they can quit lowering the bar every year and "show" a profit!!!

    Note, I covered my short position and now I'm cost averaging, legging into bearish 2016 exp PUT LEAPS as I believe AMZN will bounce off of recent lows.
    Feb 6, 2014. 10:37 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quantifying The Floor And Ceiling For Amazon [View article]
    Which is a scam as they started booking 3P sales at 100% the last 2 Q to boost their top line revenues
    Feb 5, 2014. 03:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quantifying The Floor And Ceiling For Amazon [View article]
    Flat assuming they book their 3P revenues at 100% which is a scam to pump top line revenue
    Feb 5, 2014. 03:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
129 Comments
128 Likes