Seeking Alpha

Vick13

Vick13
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Vick13's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Amazon: Web Services Growth, Valuations And Competition. [View article]
    Wow, breaking news, they actually have the 'potential' to make a profit in 3-5 more years? Heck, by then the analyst will have their price target @ $1000 and their market cap will be $457,000,000,000
    Dec 3 03:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon and eBay outperform on Cyber Monday [View news story]
    This #'s need to be put into context with regard to overall sales volume & margins. Selling at a loss doesn't mean Holy Cow AMZN is finally going to make a few cents per share?! Overall not so sure the retailers and 3p are benefiting other than inventory turnover if this is their time to make hay.

    Guess we'll have to wait for earnings in Jan...
    Dec 3 10:44 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Concede Defeat In Amazon.com [View article]
    I say Paulo sends an exploding drone to JB's house in order to give the stock a much needed correction!
    Dec 2 10:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Danger Zone: Netflix [View article]
    Fundy, I am curious re NFLX agreement w/ ISP's...I can't imagine this won't change??? as they account for 70% of the current streaming broadband in U.S.

    Can you shed any light on this as it seems like they are getting a free pipeline and I would imagine this will not always be the case
    Nov 22 03:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Danger Zone: Netflix [View article]
    FYI, the Icahn family sold 50% and continues to make a boat load with the houses money. His son will probably sell another lot around $350+.

    Personally, I am learning a costly lesson on momentum stocks. They are expensive and they are crushing me,,,I am a bear because truly they have moved way to far too quickly based on some modest success and questionable metrics. While David's analysis and many others on NFLX & AMZN are correct and cannot justify their run up, the Wallstreet crooks have the ability to bleed you dry and then pull the rug out and make money going the other way as well.

    Bottom line it is a huge gamble and home gamers a major disadvantage and few have the staying power or ability to win.
    My advice 'if' you want to place your bet is to buy a few Puts as far out as possible well out of the money so they aren't expensive and you can control your risk...
    Nov 22 01:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon's Continued Growth Strategy May Put Pressure On Its Future Finances [View article]
    Jay,

    Thank you for your logical insight. I am curious if you can project how long "future" is in relation to their finances? Lack of transparency and "eventual" accountability is driving us Bear's nuts!

    I have to give AMZN credit they throw maximum s--- against the wall to see what will stick as they're seemingly desperate for better margins. This week feature is the "AMAZON" diaper and mmmm an prime cut of "AMAZON" steak.
    Nov 21 11:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How I Explain Amazon's Stock Performance [View article]
    A fair common sense article Chuck. One thing that drives me nuts about this stock is that the institutions seem to be in cahoots and that is why Wall St is so hated. When it corrects they will all take their pound of profits in flesh and leave individuals that got in at a high basis hung out to dry.

    I also think your point in regard to dilution is key because the way they are keeping their employees happy is based on stock compensation. Everybody is happy now but at some point they too could see their paper value in the company vanish.

    I think that this whole bit about Bezos not concerned w/ Net Profit is a bunch of bull. They are approaching two decades. They wouldn't be throwing everything possible at the wall to see what sticks if they weren't seeking some decent margins.

    I HATE 90% of the street analysts as they seem to loose objectivity. They jump on board momentum stocks with 20/20 hindsight. Yes, AMZN continues to grow at a healthy clip, but how many times have they guided down forecasts in the last 3 yrs?!

    While you mention rising operating costs and how it factors in to growth rate and negative ROA, this seems to be ignored.

    I think it needs to be pointed out and more transparent that AMZN's revenue beat in Q3 was based on booking 3p sales at 100%.

    Lastly, this article focuses on many key metrics, good & bad but much of their ability to turn profitable will be determined by outside factors such as competition, taxes, interest rates, rising fulfillment costs, etc.

    Bezos is very clever by not disclosing the true reality of AMZN. The cmpany generates tremendous working capital by slow paying 3p and burying investment costs. The question is: how many hall passes does Bezos have left until profits, lack of yield matter???
    Nov 4 11:25 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bull Of The Day: Netflix [View article]
    I do not mind that aspect and I don't dislike NFLX. I just don't like all the smoke & mirrors with off balance sheet debt and amortizing cap-ex to show a .40c profit. The shameless pumping is based on the fact that these momentum companies continually add hundreds of millions to their valuations on somewhat meaningless press releases about new shows they over pay for and don't even own.

    There are numerous battles being waged for content and delivery right now, NFLX is definitely leading streaming but that is not where they made their profits historically and they will have to demonstrate that their pricing model works down the road. But don't think that other BIG players in this space are going to let them control the market.
    Oct 26 11:53 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bull Of The Day: Netflix [View article]
    The problem is momentum stocks are going up parabolically and adding unfounded market cap and this will continue for a few more quarters.

    However, I couldn't agree more. Zacks = pumpers, momentum junkies who leave innocent home gamer investors holding the ball eventually when the bubble bursts. Top management is taken profits in the $300's for a reason.

    AMZN is guilty of the same crap!
    They only reason they beat on Revenue was by booking 3p sales @ 100% as opposed to the net commissionable revenue. It has no positive effect on their bottom line! and they aren't disclosing this??!!
    Oct 26 10:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon catches upgrade as Street cheers Q3 growth pickup [View news story]
    These analysts should be held legally responsible for this continuous pump up despite poor metrics,,,they HAVE to have a vested interest w/ Bezos one way or another???!!!

    Someone with some smarts and some brass balls needs to expose this scam...
    Oct 25 12:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Concede Defeat In Amazon.com [View article]
    Paulo,
    You're humility will serve you well. Lots of arrogant people on here. Let go & don't beat yourself up everyday. Perhaps buy some time and offset your losses selling OTM puts,,,that's what I'm doing.
    I actually buy calls as well just to hedge and play the game until the trend breaks.

    There will be a day of reckoning...many headwinds to come!

    The stock market is a giant scam!!! Vegas on steroids...
    The market makers know what card the shorts have in their hand, especially when margined.

    I'd gladly write the SEC a letter if I thought I would fall on deaf ears.
    If you would provide the best address and the ammo for their revenue controversy, I am all over it. I will also send to Herb Greenberg.
    Oct 25 12:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix - Shares Are Entering 'Euphoria' Phase [View article]
    Value Investor

    Does anybody really know there true 'paid' subscriber base vs freebies? Also, what is their attrition rate?

    To me, everything is inflated, there are a lot of off balance sheet liabilities, and they are a glorified distributor of content who really don't own anything.

    There is going to be a lot of competition, disruption in the industry and big players that aren't going to let them rake in all the "programming content" profits.

    To me they are a great $100 stock and a ridiculous $400 stock.
    Momentum junkies beware!
    Oct 22 07:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cramer Expounds The Greater Fool Theory On Netflix [View article]
    ICAHN is the tail wagging Wallstreet the dog,,,isn't there something wrong with this picture? Not going to dispute he has been a brilliant activist, but he has also become the 900 lb gorilla. Don't tell me the guy doesn't utilize insider information everyday to rape billions! Look up arrogance in Websters and there's his picture. He and Reed Hasting both got what they wanted and needed in this little 10 month courtship.

    As for Cramer, he is nothing more than a momentum junkie w/ 20/20 hindsight.

    And those are my editorials for the day.
    Oct 22 07:24 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cramer Expounds The Greater Fool Theory On Netflix [View article]
    Please say it's AMZN!!!
    Oct 22 07:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Flails Wildly [View article]
    Not sure about buying Puts unless they are leaps. Now selling OTM Puts on the other hand has worked very well for me
    Oct 17 10:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
129 Comments
128 Likes