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  • Seadrill: It's A Good Time To Be A Shareholder  [View article]
    "Seadrill did see its operating cash flow drop to $241 million from the $413 million that the company brought in during the third quarter"

    Wow, and this is only going to get worse with the loss of the tenders.
    Mar 4, 2013. 06:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Commodity Stocks Moving On News  [View article]
    Speaking of hurricanes, we are one good Aussie flood away from spiking met coal prices nicely. Don't rain on my parade, just rain on Queensland!
    Feb 28, 2013. 01:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Clean Energy Fuels: A Solution To The EV And 'Clean Coal' Debacles  [View article]
    Nat Gas for transportation is a "no brainer" for so many economic, environmental, and geopolitical reasons. However, despite all the "obvious" reasons put forward in this and many other articles, it has been a very disappointing investment.
    Jan 18, 2013. 08:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Surface RT Is An Innovative Trojan - Microsoft Moves In Adjacent Markets  [View article]

    Thanks for responding, I continue to try to improve my experience on the Surface and agree that the available apps definitely perform better than IE, but at this point I remain frustrated and disappointed.
    Jan 8, 2013. 08:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jeff Miller Positions For 2013: Current Risk/Reward Favors Stocks Over Bonds  [View article]
    Great interview and great points!
    Jan 8, 2013. 08:30 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coal Miners Can't Heat Up  [View article]

    The chart shows a strong uptrend with compression - usually signifying a breakout. Odds are better for the breakout be to the upside given the short interest in ANR.

    The most basic of trends is also present, higher highs and higher lows. Resistance at 10 has already broken.
    Jan 5, 2013. 10:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Surface RT Is An Innovative Trojan - Microsoft Moves In Adjacent Markets  [View article]
    I write this on a Surface I got for Christmas, and it is an ever frustrating experience! I have put 1.5 hard weeks into trying to get the Surface to work for me and it does not. I would gladly return it, but they won't take it back.

    I primarily got this for Flash support, but it is variable and doesn't work on the two main websites I need it to (I have spent hours on the phone with support to no avail). I also needed a tablet that would run IE, because we use a program with an IE embedded editor at work - as you can guess, it can not be integrated on RT.

    Overall, everything works so variably (touch gestures, keyboard, trackpad, apps) that it is very frustrating to use. Someone said it is fast? I find it very slow and frequently freezes.

    Sales are disappointing because the Surface is very disappointing. I would rather emulate a workstation on an alternative tablet than try and use the Surface. Sorry, but this thing is a dog.
    Jan 5, 2013. 09:10 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: A Glimpse Into Future Contracts  [View article]

    I did very well with FRO on the way up, but made much more money on the way down when the numbers between SFL and FRO just stopped adding up. I am currently short SDRL with a Jan 40 / 35 Put spread. I have no beef with JF, I just feel like I have seen this movie before.

    SDRL's return on the assets it originally transferred to NADL and SDLP is frozen at the IPO price yield (unless it sells stock or is diluted which would take it even lower) which is 7%, and SDRL kept about 75% of those companies.

    SDRL transferred assets that it continues to pay a 9% yield on to SDRL shareholders (because of consolidated reporting), but only receives a 5.25% yield (75% of the 7%) on those assets from NADL and SDLP. The math does not add up.

    The return to SDRL on future transfers is even more confusing, especially with respect to SDLP. SDRL holds its 75% ownership in SDLP with half common shares and half subordinated shares. The common shares have a guaranteed 7% dividend, but the subordinated shares do not, and could in some circumstances receive no dividend at all, reducing the total return to SDRL to 2.625%. It just doesn't add up.
    Dec 18, 2012. 04:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: A Glimpse Into Future Contracts  [View article]
    "The contract backlog is deep -- which is very good for locking in future revenues."

    The problem is those revenues go to other companies, not to SDRL to pay the SDRL dividend. Of the backlog many are already committed to NADL or SDLP. In addition, SDLP has the option to take any asset in the future that has a 5 yr or greater contract.


    West Linus - Committed to NADL
    West Mira - Option to SDLP - Will likely be taken by SDLP
    West Rigel - Committed to NADL
    West Auriga - Option to SDLP
    West Vela - Option to SDLP
    West Tellus - Not contracted but likely option to SDLP
    West Neptune - Not contracted but likely option to SDLP
    West Jupiter - Not contracted but likely option to SDLP
    West Saturn - Not contracted but likely option to SDLP
    West Carina - Not contracted but likely option to SDLP

    West Janus - Sold

    At some point SDRL will cut its dividend, and it will begin a rapid price implosion aka Frontline (FRO).
    Dec 18, 2012. 08:03 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 'Must-Buy' Oil Stocks For Big Potential Gains Into 2013  [View article]
    Odd combination of companies!

    TOT is an excellent company with solid prospects.

    SDRL and CHK have been, and must continue to sell assets to pay their bills (CHK) and fragile dividend (SDRL). As an investor, it is hard to know what you end up with, if anything at all, in the long run. When SDRL cuts its dividend, it will begin a rapid price implosion aka Frontline (FRO). CHK will be crushed by its own debt if it can't continue to unload billions in assets, not to mention the pressure on the company by continued low NG prices and decreasing liquids pricing.

    NGPC and AXAS are small cap ROE failures, with AXAS headed to penny stock land. Why even bring them up?
    Dec 18, 2012. 07:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Commodity Stocks Moving On News  [View article]
    ANR will accelerate if it can break above $10, as many of the shorts placed in the $12 - $14 range (a huge tranche) are using $10 and change as a stop to close out the position. If those stops trigger, we will fill the gap to $14 very fast - hang on.
    Dec 13, 2012. 08:28 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cramer's Mad Money - Bernanke Is The Only Grown-Up (12/12/12)  [View article]
    Luckily, Ben understands how conventional wisdom and populist politicians can turn a recession into a full on "bread line" Depression ala the 1930s and the current southern European countries with 25% + unemployment. Austerity is absolutely devastating to a wounded economy - Ben gets it thankfully
    Dec 13, 2012. 08:16 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Revisiting Seadrill's Dividend Sustainability  [View article]
    The devil is in this detail:

    "Seadrill will, to support this position (sale of the tender rigs), receive a minimum of US$ 350 million in new shares of SapuraKencana."

    If this number ends up being much larger there will be tremendous pressure on the dividend and dilution of SapuraKencana.

    Much of the received cash is slotted for progress payments on newbuilds, not available for the dividend.
    Dec 13, 2012. 07:23 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zillow Is Becoming A Required Tool For Agents  [View article]

    I totally agree!
    Dec 12, 2012. 12:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • North Atlantic Drilling: Cheapest Offshore Driller With A Huge 9% Yield  [View article]
    Thanks Frogmatic,

    These JF companies are a bit of a shell game at this point. As the debt gets moved around, it is very hard to identify what entity might be getting in trouble without doing the hard work like you have.

    Thanks again.
    Dec 11, 2012. 08:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment