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Allen A

Allen A
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  • SunEdison Devco Breakeven Quarter? [View article]

    In the hundreds (thousands?) of articles that I have read on SA, yours is quite possibly the single best.

    Thank you for taking the time to write such a well constructed article on such an interesting company.
    Aug 13, 2015. 10:55 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Is Yahoo Really Worth? [View article]
    "Yahoo anticipates full-year 2015 adjusted EBITDA to total between $240 MM and $260 MM"

    Andrew, just curious where you got the figure for core Yahoo EBITDA?
    Apr 29, 2015. 07:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 39% Annualized Return And AT&T [View article]

    Another excellent article thanks. Just signed up for the research service. Quick question:

    What program/site/service are you using to generate the list of comp transactions?
    Apr 17, 2015. 11:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Keryx Is A Short For A Multitude Of Reasons [View article]
    Any discussion of Auryxia without mentioning the likely approval/use in pre-dialysis CKD is woefully incomplete. Pre-dialysis, iron deficient CKD quintuples the TAM.

    Not bothering to mention this makes this article grossly incomplete and in my opinion, irresponsibly deceptive.
    Mar 24, 2015. 11:22 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MBIA Inc. - Buying Is A No-Brainer [View article]
    Excellent article.
    Mar 17, 2015. 01:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Discount Bill Ackman [View article]
    Anyone know what type of tax treatment US investors would face?

    I'm guessing this would be classified as a PFIC but I'm not sure. That would be pretty onerous for US investors and act as a large disincentive.

    I've read the prospectus and there's no mention of US investor tax treatment.

    Anyone out there know?
    Feb 12, 2015. 01:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Goodyear: A Bargain In Plain Sight [View article]
    Nice article.

    One minor correction: Marcato's MD is Richard McGuire, but he goes by "Mick" not "Rick".
    Feb 3, 2015. 02:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keryx Driven By Recent Auryxia Launch In The US [View article]
    Logical Thought,

    I respect your writing on Tesla and am interested to understand your reasons for shorting Keryx. Would you mind hitting the highlights (or point me to a previous post or article)?
    Jan 4, 2015. 10:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Yelp Reports Q314 Earnings [View article]
    In fact, you can already see the revenue slowdown coming in management's guidance for 107m-108m Q4 revenue. At the mid-point this represents <5% sequential revenue growth when compared to this quarter's just reported 102.5m revenue number.

    By comparison, Q4 2013 saw 15% sequential revenue growth when compared to Q3 2013. The company is projecting next quarter's sequential growth to be 1/3 of last year's.

    Yes revenues are still growing, but the rate at which they are growing is rapidly decelerating.

    With no user growth and RAPIDLY decelerating revenue growth, trading at ~10x enterprise value to run-rate-sales, it's no surprise the stock is plunging. Without a re-acceleration in growth of revenues and/or new users, this might be the inflection point that begins a long decline.
    Oct 23, 2014. 01:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Yelp Reports Q314 Earnings [View article]
    Average unique monthly users 139m up 19% year over year... but up less than 1% sequentially compared to Q2's 138m average unique monthly users.

    New user growth has plateaued. Big problem.

    Reminds me of Angie's List. For a while revenue continued to grow even as new users plateaued. The stock however correctly saw new user growth as a leading indicator and has sold down ever since.

    Consider yourself warned
    Oct 23, 2014. 12:50 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LinkedIn - Analysts See More Upside, As I Am Cautious About The Timing Of The Upgrade [View article]
    A few years ago, when Facebook had revenues of around 2B, its operating margin was around 50% (and still is today).

    LinkedIn's current run-rate is around 2B for the past two quarters. It's operating margin is slightly negative.

    Although both are superficialy similar (ie, social networks) there are structural differences that make them very different when it comes to dropping top-line to the bottom-line.

    Paying >10x revenues for what is likely to be an average margin business is insanity.

    LinkedIn is no Facebook.
    Sep 30, 2014. 11:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla And The Dilution Misconception [View article]
    I enjoy reading fact based articles on both sides and it takes a certain amount of bravery to write about such a battleground stock. Whether you agree or disagree, the discourse is useful.

    Without picking sides, just wanted to say thanks for putting yourself out there Paul.
    Aug 30, 2014. 03:57 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Growth Portfolio: Yelp's Strong Quarter Indicates Solid Momentum [View article]
    The statistic that worries me the most is their business repeat rate, which they proudly tout at 75%! This metric covers businesses that advertised last quarter and then advertised again this quarter.

    Now turn that around. So 25% of the businesses that advertised last quarter DID NOT advertise this quarter. Sure, some of them may skip a quarter and then resume advertising, but any business that has 25% of its customers halting (or slowing) engagement each quarter will eventually have trouble growing.

    And just to be clear, that 25% rate is a sequential quarterly rate. It sort of implies an annual churn among paying business advertisers approaching 100%. Gulp.
    Aug 15, 2014. 04:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LinkedIn's (LNKD) CEO Jeff Weiner on Q2 2014 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    Unique logged in users only rose 3% sequentially. Saturation + churn?
    Aug 1, 2014. 07:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Investors Should Avoid Yelp [View article]
    Curiously, the author of this piece appears on tipranks with a buy recommendation. Not sure what to make of that.
    Jul 31, 2014. 11:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment