Chris DeMuth Jr. is the founder of Rangeley Capital LLC. Rangeley is an investment firm that focuses on event driven, value-oriented investment opportunities. Rangeley Capital and his value investing forum, Sifting the World (StW), search the world for misplaced bets. Rangeley exploits them for its investors and then Mr. DeMuth writes about them on StW.
I am a journalist with more than 30 years of professional experience in newspapers, magazines, and higher education. I am based in Alabama and write the blog Legal Schnauzer, which focuses on justice issues in the South and beyond.
I am Australian by birth and citizenship, but I have been living in China since 1998.
I started investing in stocks in about 2001, experiencing a taste of, but not the full wrath of the tech crunch. From 2001 to 2011 I followed a small selection of mechanical investing strategies based mostly around growth or dividends. The market was good to me during this time but my recent analysis shows that it would have been a lot better had I paid more attention to preservation of capital in 2008 and 2011.
My current investment strategies are coloured by my belief that we are in the concluding phase of a 13-18 year secular bear trend that will probably be broken and become a similarly long-lasting bull trend sometime before 2019 (my gut feel is sooner rather than later), but that the market will have one more try to wipe us all out between now (2012) and then. As such, I am looking to:
a) Preserve my capital over the next 2-6 years and if possible make some gains. Risk management is king.
b) Learn as much as possible about the market so that I can take full advantage of the next bull market when it comes.
c) Practice my trading technique without necessarily becoming a trader. I expect this in the short term to cost me some money, but education always comes at a cost.
I currently have several strategies running in parallel in my portfolio. Chief among tham are:
1. Dividend stocks. Looking for low volatility and risk coupled with good sustainable dividend yield. Return driver: the ability of good companies to make money and return cash to shareholders.
2. Broad market trend following. Return Driver: You don't need to be able to predict the market in order to outperform the indices. All you need to be able to do is know what direction the market is moving in *now*. Aside: That is plenty hard enough.
3. Sector timing. Return Driver: there is almost always a bull market in some industry sector. You just gotta find it.
4. Global Market timing. Return driver: There is almost always a bull market somewhere.
5. Commodities timing. Return driver: There is almost always something that is getting more expensive or getting cheaper. Keeps me watching the global macro economy.
6. Bonds. Sovereign debt, corporate debt, municipal debt. Market Driver: through careful selection of average duration, fixed income investment can both reduce risk and improve overall returns of a portfolio.
7. Mortgage REITs. Return driver: yield curve carry trade.
8. Mechanical growth strategies like CAN SLIM and Piotroski strategy.
9. Playtime. 10% of my capital is devoted to trying things out. Stock picking, options plays, technical trades, you name it. Return driver: this is what keeps me interested. This is what keeps me reading. This is what sharpens my analysis skills. The extra risk I take on here stops me from going to sleep at the wheel and pays off through good management of the other strategies. Things that work can be promoted to strategies.
10. Real estate. I am way overweight Australian residential real estate. Currently trying to fix that, and move part of the proceeds into agricultural land (food will be the hot commodity of the next 10, maybe 50 years.) and another part into strategies 1-8.
other part into strategies 1-8.
Adam Gefvert is the head researcher for White Diamond Research, a research firm for hedge funds and high net worth individuals. Primarily a short seller, he has saved investors millions of dollars by exposing highly overvalued small cap stocks. He has a 90%+ success rate with his Seeking Alpha short ideas. He specializes in technology, energy, and biotech stocks, because those are the sectors with the greatest valuation inefficiencies.
You can follow Adam on twitter @shiningboy
Evaluation of the dominant assumptions and an understanding of the dynamics of the economic engine is the basis of an approach to asset allocation that provides for both a rational determination of value and an understanding of sentiment in the form of price as a measure of the irrational nature of the operational environment, an approach that is intended at once to avoid unnecessary risk while at the same time enable gradual rebalance of assets as a means to increase net worth via optimization of appreciation and long term yields. Let's call that buy low and fly high just for fun.
Financial writer with comprehensive experience in the financial services industry. Experience includes article writing on investments and economic trends as well as in-depth product analysis on global passive equity index funds. Master of Science degree in finance from Boston College. Bachelor of Science degree in finance from the University of Arkansas.
Charles (Chuck) C. Carnevale is the creator of F.A.S.T. Graphs™. Chuck is also co-founder of an investment management firm. He has been working in the securities industry since 1970: he has been a partner with a private NYSE member firm, the President of a NASD firm, Vice President and Regional Marketing Director for a major AMEX listed company, and an Associate Vice President and Investment Consulting Services Coordinator for a major NYSE member firm. Prior to forming his own investment firm, he was a partner in a 30-year-old established registered investment advisory in Tampa, Florida. Chuck holds a Bachelor of Science in Economics and Finance from the University of Tampa. Chuck is a sought-after public speaker who is very passionate about spreading the critical message of prudence in money management. Chuck is a Veteran of the Vietnam War and was awarded both the Bronze Star and the Vietnam Honor Medal.
I am an independent investor that has been successful trading small cap stocks. I look for stocks that can produce returns that far exceed the broader markets over a short period of time. Many of the stocks in which I take positions are high risk, high reward. I believe that buy and hold is dead and if you are not constantly looking for and finding what is moving in the market, you are better off staying out of the market. At times I will invest 100% of my discretionary trading capital into a single stock.
New member Russell Gold is an investment research analyst. Russell Gold fields of interest include technical analysis, macroeconomics, demographics, financial history and energy policy. His published topics include; stock options, dividend investing, technology, services, finance and search engine optimization.
Russell Gold considers himself as both a contrarian and dividend growth investor. He believes dividends provide a degree of stability to a portfolio. However, Russell Gold does infrequently trade high risk financial derivatives such as options, futures and swaps. Russell Gold seeks leveraged returns and utilizes advanced investment strategies with non-binding contracts.
With very little capital Russell Gold utilizes advanced investment strategies as an ability to make extreme returns. These kind of returns may not be possible with primary investment vehicles such as stocks and bonds. When you invest in a stock or bond, it could take seven years to double your money. With derivative investment strategies, it is possible to double your money in less than week.
Russell Gold believes the spirit of risk management is most important to long term investment activities. He suggest every investor make the effort to consider new or alternative paths of thought. Russell Gold will be helpful in terms of keeping all of us on the right side of longer term macro equity market risk and reward.