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finsovet
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I am a Moscow-based bi-lingual blogger and investor. Started as a Russian mutual fund investor in 1999, I went for an ETF portfolio late in 2007. Survived the 2008/9 meltdown and love sharing the way I invest. Publisher of the Marathon Investor newsletter, a virtual primer of a balanced... More
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Marathon Investor
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Finsovet (Russian) See also marathoninvestor.com
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  • MSFT, Mr. Market And Barry Ritholtz

    The meme of the demise of PCs and MSFT has been all over the news for years now.

    I have put together relative performance charts (stock market represented by VTI ETF compared to MSFT) and a few quotes from Barry Ritholtz on Microsoft.

    Why?

    Barry has got 137k+ subscribers and he has a strong (bearish) opinion on Microsoft. Can he influence the sentiment? Apple, Nokia, Blackberry tablets… and the digital revolution in general attract so much of attention these days and I thought why not explore how opinion makers influence the market. This is not an attempt to pick on Mr. Ritholtz whom I deeply respect for his articles on investment strategy and thought process. Believe his intentions are good. On the contrary, I think my exercise illustrates his points (to the extent that my attempt is rigorous, which of course it is not):

    Hope I have not 'cherry picked' the tweets and charts below (of course the pitfalls such as above are very relevant to me. Especially for the facts of 1) me being long MSFT and 2) the recent surge of its price!). I tried and chose the tweets with strong negative connotation ("Microsoft has failed" or written in capitalized letters) and measured performance for fixed periods of time after the tweets (30-40 days). Sure enough this is not a study of causation between the tweets of Mr. Ritholtz and MSFT stock performance. However I am curious to see what others think and how this method might be improved.

    Enough with the context. First let's listen to what Mr. Market has been telling us since October 2007 market peak. And this clearly is not a story of any demise.

    (click to enlarge)

    MSFT,VTI: PerfChart - StockCharts.com - Free Charts

    http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?MSFT,VTI

    Here are some tweets and charts capturing performance of the MSFT stock shortly thereafter.

    Barry has got 137k+ subscribers and he has a strong (bearish) opinion on Microsoft. Can he influence the sentiment?

    (click to enlarge)

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    (click to enlarge)30Sep

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    Disclosure: I am long MSFT.

    Tags: MSFT
    Nov 10 12:22 PM | Link | 2 Comments
  • Marathon Investor Updates In Open Access

    In case you missed it I am posting weekly updates in open access here. You will find all newsletters from the start of the model.

    Catching up with my readership on SA, I thought I'd summarize what's been playing on my mind since my last update in Spring.

    My goal is to decrease turnover and focus on turnaround situations to jump into the trends early. In this regard some 'value' investments were added, including bonds (as rates sold off in Q2-3), EM and European equities.

    Yes, I my view there is some value in bonds because the short rates most likely will stay low longer than many expect, and extremely negative sentiment forced me to buy some discounted / non-US Treasury CEFs.

    Tags: DEM, GIM, ISD, EDD, EWI, CHIQ, VOE, IAI, CEFs, EM, Europe, bonds
    Oct 12 10:06 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Marathon Investor March 1st 2013 Update

    Here is where the model stood at last week's close, after dividend reinvestment and before the rebalancing:

    (click to enlarge)

    Screen clipping taken: 3/3/2013 10:49 AM

    (click to enlarge)

    Screen clipping taken: 3/3/2013 10:55 AM

    End of day, March 1st move? I am adding to $EIS.

    Happy investing!

    Disclosure: I am long EIS, PEP.

    Mar 03 2:29 AM | Link | Comment!
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