Per the article, LINE is 100% hedged through 2016 - unlike the majority of its peers. If HTL's "COT Data Suggests Oil's Fall Is Coming" is right, there is an interesting dynamic here - especially if it can hedge BRY's assets as well prior to a fall.
Axion Power Concentrator 238: May 21: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
Somewhat off topic - Here is a discussion of LNG and CNG use in trucks, and issues with a refueling network. I had no idea that the numbers of new LNG or CNG trucks was so high: http://seekingalpha.co...
If the link doesn’t work, look on SA for “Clean Energy Fuels: The Important CNG/LNG Distinction And What It Means For Investors” by Philip Mause. (I don’t get to log in often enough to correct it).
Also note in the comments that trains are trying this, too.
Axion Power Concentrator 237: May 16: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
Back to yesterday's attendees for a minute.
The fact that Mr. Berkowitz was once again in attendance tells me that (his sale of AXPW not withstanding) that he is convinced of the AXPW story. It is only timing that is his question. Apparently, he was earlier convinced (as many of us) that the breakout would be sooner than later. Then he changed his mind and sold. However, the belief in a breakout at some point is still there. The story is till a ound one.
While I won't complain if it's sooner, I'm now looking toward Q4 into Q1.
A Long-Term Investor's Case For Jones Lang LaSalle [View article]
Thoughts on European exposure?
(I don't see it as a big issue given the % of operations in Europe and the types of services provided. However, I always welcome additional viewpoints.)
Axion Power Concentrator 221: Mar. 24: Axion Power Completes New Continuous Roll Carbon Sheeting Process [View instapost]
FWIW – Here is my “step-back-and-think-a... take. In management’s mind, EVERYTHING was hinging on the automated production line.
My initial overall impression is that the lack of an automated production line was standing in the way of a number of opportunities. It affected the cost/price (giving investors profitability questions); and it affected the reliability, consistency, and volume (giving customer’s worries). The mass production question is now out of the way and opens the door a lot wider in a number of directions (e.g., BMW Fleet testing) leading to more sales.
Because these issues have been resolved, potential funders have had major risk removed. I firmly believe that is the reason for the delay in the funding announcement (and we didn’t really hear anything today, either). I further believe that there is very likely to be a quantum step up in PbC sales.
Axion Power Concentrator 220: Mar. 22: Axion Power Completes New Continuous Roll Carbon Sheeting Process [View instapost]
If the finished goods inventory of $1.7 million were all PbCs, or after subtracting the "usual" inventory of $0.3M = $1.4M were all PbCs, how many batteries would that be? Does it give any insight to the buyer (assuming it is mostly a single buyer)?
I like the idea that it may help indicate the new 'aligned' investor.
Axion Power Concentrator 219: Mar. 20: Axion Power Completes New Continuous Roll Carbon Sheeting Process [View instapost]
Given the tremendous cost savings inherent in the new manufacturing process, I think back to the press release with ePower (which I don't have handy) and would like to resurrect the discussion that maybe ePower DID get a lower price based on this what we now know to be a cost savings (but didn't know about at that time). I need to go back and look at the press release again.
BTW - I've been out of the loop for nearly a week, so this thought may have been covered.
Axion Power Concentrator 216: Mar. 10: Axion Power And EPower Engine Systems Inaugurate Strategic 18-Wheeler Alliance Using PbC Batteries In Hybrid Drive Trains For Class 8 Trucks [View instapost]
Only wish I didn't have a weekend of comments to go through.
Axion Power Concentrator 216: Mar. 10: Axion Power And EPower Engine Systems Inaugurate Strategic 18-Wheeler Alliance Using PbC Batteries In Hybrid Drive Trains For Class 8 Trucks [View instapost]
A compelling story for me on gold/silver - especially when adding the technical writings of Avi Gilburt here on SA. http://seekingalpha.co... Do your own due diligence.
Axion Power Concentrator 214: Mar. 4: Axion Power And EPower Engine Systems Inaugurate Strategic 18-Wheeler Alliance Using PbC Batteries In Hybrid Drive Trains For Class 8 Trucks [View instapost]
Holy Cow – what a firestorm I stirred up. Apologies!
I keep up with the concentrators, but don’t get on that often (full time job, family, etc). So I get back on for a look this morning and see the lid came off the pot.
First – the ePower news is nothing but great.
That said, my comment came because I was puzzling over the exclusivity, and was looking for a good reason behind it. Billa said it better than I did: “I can't help thinking that Axion wants to show a significant potential revenue stream to whoever is going to provide the coming funding round and ePower agreed to go along with the 5-year plan even though they might not necessarily have been thinking in terms of a time-based commitment. A steady stream however small”. That was my point.
Yes, ePower was going to go with Axion anyway, but the “exclusivity” news and the “Nothing else will work” news getting out to the public is important to Axion. I really do like JP’s answer that service-level (performance) agreements on the battery performance by Axion would be a really good quid pro quo and provides the best answer. It has the elegance that it cost Axion nothing, just like exclusivity had no cost to ePower.
Still, with all the sales to date being “one-off”, I would argue that a ‘going price’ has not necessarily etched in stone – especially when I suspect cost per unit has come down over time. While I wholeheartedly agree “discount” was a very poor choice of words on my part, I would use iindelco’s words: “I find the whole thought of ePower negotiating a better deal than NS interesting. And so it shall remain as such.”
Time to crawl back into my cave to mine more salt – at least until the stock price goes to $10-$20! :-)
Axion Power Concentrator 213: Mar. 3: Axion Power PbC Batteries Continue To Demonstrate Effectiveness For Railroad Applications Norfolk Southern [View instapost]
Regarding the exclusivity agreement with ePower, I would strongly bet that Axion traded a bit of price for: 1) The right to guaranteed revenue now (amount may not be huge right now, but is right now) 2) The right to say that only OUR battery is the only battery that does the job
In light of the need for financing, guaranteed revenue could be huge, and could possibly actually delay the financing. ePower was obviously going to go with Axion batteries, but I believe that the statement together with guaranteed revenue was traded for a bulk discount if ordered immediately.
Calumet Specialty In 2013-14, Consolidation Years [View article]
First, I am no expert.
That said, my take is that ALL of the refiners who can take advantage of WTI price, regardless of their products were geared up to turn a profit based on the current price and current cost. When both were stable, the margin stayed stable as well. What we seem to have here (IMO), is that while demand and therefore selling price seem to have remained stable, costs have suddenly dropped based on using WTI in place of Brent. At the margin, a small change in the cost can drastically affect profitability. Further, while I see demand and price remaining stable (being based on Brent pricing for worldwide producers), I don't see WTI and Brent getting much closer for quite some time in spite of pipelines. Therefore I see outsized profits.
I'm afraid I don't have any insight into what CLMT's lowering their product price might do for extra demand, or CLMT's ability to produce more to fill that demand. My guess is that IF they can/do increase output, that management is making a solid decision that will not be hurting dividends nor stock value.
BTW - I, too,have found akaralph's comments to be useful. Good Luck.
Calumet Specialty In 2013-14, Consolidation Years [View article]
gpenny - The crack spread is the difference between the cost of the raw oil (input) and the refined product (output). http://bit.ly/RvkxLI
The price of each can vary over time. Lately, the price of the output has been reasonably steady (IMHO); however demand could change and the price with it. On the input side, the price of oil has dropped recently due to the ability of many refineries to use WTI in place of Brent. There is discussion that the gap between WTI and Brent could narrow. (IMHO, I don't see that happening soon in spite new pipelines and possible exports). However, do your own due diligence.
QC#258 [View instapost]
Axion Power Concentrator 238: May 21: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
http://seekingalpha.co...
If the link doesn’t work, look on SA for “Clean Energy Fuels: The Important CNG/LNG Distinction And What It Means For Investors” by Philip Mause. (I don’t get to log in often enough to correct it).
Also note in the comments that trains are trying this, too.
Axion Power Concentrator 237: May 16: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
The fact that Mr. Berkowitz was once again in attendance tells me that (his sale of AXPW not withstanding) that he is convinced of the AXPW story. It is only timing that is his question. Apparently, he was earlier convinced (as many of us) that the breakout would be sooner than later. Then he changed his mind and sold. However, the belief in a breakout at some point is still there. The story is till a ound one.
While I won't complain if it's sooner, I'm now looking toward Q4 into Q1.
Axion Power Concentrator 236: May 15: Axion Power Releases Quarterly Report For The First Quarter 2013 [View instapost]
Oh well...
A Long-Term Investor's Case For Jones Lang LaSalle [View article]
(I don't see it as a big issue given the % of operations in Europe and the types of services provided. However, I always welcome additional viewpoints.)
Axion Power Concentrator 221: Mar. 24: Axion Power Completes New Continuous Roll Carbon Sheeting Process [View instapost]
My initial overall impression is that the lack of an automated production line was standing in the way of a number of opportunities. It affected the cost/price (giving investors profitability questions); and it affected the reliability, consistency, and volume (giving customer’s worries). The mass production question is now out of the way and opens the door a lot wider in a number of directions (e.g., BMW Fleet testing) leading to more sales.
Because these issues have been resolved, potential funders have had major risk removed. I firmly believe that is the reason for the delay in the funding announcement (and we didn’t really hear anything today, either). I further believe that there is very likely to be a quantum step up in PbC sales.
Axion Power Concentrator 220: Mar. 22: Axion Power Completes New Continuous Roll Carbon Sheeting Process [View instapost]
I like the idea that it may help indicate the new 'aligned' investor.
Axion Power Concentrator 219: Mar. 20: Axion Power Completes New Continuous Roll Carbon Sheeting Process [View instapost]
BTW - I've been out of the loop for nearly a week, so this thought may have been covered.
Axion Power Concentrator 216: Mar. 10: Axion Power And EPower Engine Systems Inaugurate Strategic 18-Wheeler Alliance Using PbC Batteries In Hybrid Drive Trains For Class 8 Trucks [View instapost]
Axion Power Concentrator 216: Mar. 10: Axion Power And EPower Engine Systems Inaugurate Strategic 18-Wheeler Alliance Using PbC Batteries In Hybrid Drive Trains For Class 8 Trucks [View instapost]
QC #254, February 22, 2013 [View instapost]
http://seekingalpha.co...
Do your own due diligence.
Axion Power Concentrator 214: Mar. 4: Axion Power And EPower Engine Systems Inaugurate Strategic 18-Wheeler Alliance Using PbC Batteries In Hybrid Drive Trains For Class 8 Trucks [View instapost]
I keep up with the concentrators, but don’t get on that often (full time job, family, etc). So I get back on for a look this morning and see the lid came off the pot.
First – the ePower news is nothing but great.
That said, my comment came because I was puzzling over the exclusivity, and was looking for a good reason behind it.
Billa said it better than I did: “I can't help thinking that Axion wants to show a significant potential revenue stream to whoever is going to provide the coming funding round and ePower agreed to go along with the 5-year plan even though they might not necessarily have been thinking in terms of a time-based commitment. A steady stream however small”. That was my point.
Yes, ePower was going to go with Axion anyway, but the “exclusivity” news and the “Nothing else will work” news getting out to the public is important to Axion. I really do like JP’s answer that service-level (performance) agreements on the battery performance by Axion would be a really good quid pro quo and provides the best answer. It has the elegance that it cost Axion nothing, just like exclusivity had no cost to ePower.
Still, with all the sales to date being “one-off”, I would argue that a ‘going price’ has not necessarily etched in stone – especially when I suspect cost per unit has come down over time. While I wholeheartedly agree “discount” was a very poor choice of words on my part, I would use iindelco’s words: “I find the whole thought of ePower negotiating a better deal than NS interesting. And so it shall remain as such.”
Time to crawl back into my cave to mine more salt – at least until the stock price goes to $10-$20! :-)
Axion Power Concentrator 213: Mar. 3: Axion Power PbC Batteries Continue To Demonstrate Effectiveness For Railroad Applications Norfolk Southern [View instapost]
1) The right to guaranteed revenue now (amount may not be huge right now, but is right now)
2) The right to say that only OUR battery is the only battery that does the job
In light of the need for financing, guaranteed revenue could be huge, and could possibly actually delay the financing. ePower was obviously going to go with Axion batteries, but I believe that the statement together with guaranteed revenue was traded for a bulk discount if ordered immediately.
We'll see.
Calumet Specialty In 2013-14, Consolidation Years [View article]
That said, my take is that ALL of the refiners who can take advantage of WTI price, regardless of their products were geared up to turn a profit based on the current price and current cost. When both were stable, the margin stayed stable as well.
What we seem to have here (IMO), is that while demand and therefore selling price seem to have remained stable, costs have suddenly dropped based on using WTI in place of Brent. At the margin, a small change in the cost can drastically affect profitability. Further, while I see demand and price remaining stable (being based on Brent pricing for worldwide producers), I don't see WTI and Brent getting much closer for quite some time in spite of pipelines. Therefore I see outsized profits.
I'm afraid I don't have any insight into what CLMT's lowering their product price might do for extra demand, or CLMT's ability to produce more to fill that demand. My guess is that IF they can/do increase output, that management is making a solid decision that will not be hurting dividends nor stock value.
BTW - I, too,have found akaralph's comments to be useful.
Good Luck.
Calumet Specialty In 2013-14, Consolidation Years [View article]
The price of each can vary over time. Lately, the price of the output has been reasonably steady (IMHO); however demand could change and the price with it. On the input side, the price of oil has dropped recently due to the ability of many refineries to use WTI in place of Brent. There is discussion that the gap between WTI and Brent could narrow. (IMHO, I don't see that happening soon in spite new pipelines and possible exports).
However, do your own due diligence.