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mds5375

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  • Axion Power Concentrator 49: Beginning Jan 16, 2012, John Petersen's Follow-Up On FINRA Data [View instapost]
    Maybe this is old news (Don't think so), but I was not aware of American Water's E.H. Aldridge water plant being the first back in November:

    http://bit.ly/wBUcxb
    Jan 18 08:48 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 49: Beginning Jan 16, 2012, John Petersen's Follow-Up On FINRA Data [View instapost]
    The question that interests me is how did she come to find out about Axion.
    It almost seems to me that while she may have known about the other battery makers already, she hadn't heard of Axion - but the name had been dropped into a conversation by *someone* to the point that she thought she should add Axion as an also-ran in her article.
    Jan 18 08:34 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 48: Beginning Jan. 13, 2012, John Petersen's Article [View instapost]
    LOL.
    Ditto. I have a day job besides this...
    Jan 14 08:43 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 47: Beginning Jan 12, 2012, John Petersen's Article [View instapost]
    Oops. I meant to tag this to the end of the news-release discussion.
    Jan 13 04:01 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 47: Beginning Jan 12, 2012, John Petersen's Article [View instapost]
    I believe that the only corporate concern was that it may have been necessary to delay any big announcements until the massive selling was over (otherwise the good news would be "wasted"). Now that the selling is done, I don't think the timing is all that important. Nor do I think anything is being held back at this point.

    As we have discussed, the time period for any further financing moves that might be necessary is a ways out yet. I think we'll hear some sort of good news before that time. I'm not concerned.
    Jan 13 03:59 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stability of the European Union (11)? (Starts January 1, 2012) [View instapost]
    Going back to jakurtz/jhooper discussion back on the 9th that was looking at the likely progression of the US and European economies, I generally agree with jakurtz’s comments and tend to see things unfolding that way. I also think it’s getting near time to *start* lining up some beat-down European bargains.
    However, I would recommend taking a look at Michael Gayed’s articles for a different point of view. (example http://seekingalpha.co...).
    I like his explorations of relationships (presented graphically) and his citing of previous precedents to prognosticate the most likely scenario based on all the inter-relationships. All the time remembering that “markets are about probabilities and never certainties.”
    I may not always agree, but there is plenty of grist for the mill, and lots of “Hmm, I hadn’t considered that” insights.
    Jan 12 09:33 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Homebuilders, Lumber, And The Winter Resolution Of 2012 [View article]
    Fascinating subject. I'd like to see this one.
    Jan 12 04:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Homebuilders, Lumber, And The Winter Resolution Of 2012 [View article]
    Michael,
    I’d like to echo Oilfinder’s assessments. I’ve been following your comments for quite a while now, and find your comments very insightful. To answer your question, I do “find the thought process and arguments convincing and different enough than what is traditionally heard on the Street”. Agreement aside, I always find it thought provoking. I’m sometimes still skeptical, but, a) that’s healthy because “markets are about probabilities and never certainties”, and b) I’m convinced I’ll be skeptical less often when we leave this period of extreme volatility after the ‘Winter Resolution’ – whichever way it resolves.
    I also agree with Oilfinder’s assessment of the CNN interview. I’m a Northeaster, so I’m used to the speed of conversation, however, I do think it’s fast for the average listener.
    Finally, I would like to add that I think it would be worthwhile to begin each interview with a brief explanation of your comparative analysis process, and that, as such you are only reporting the results of the news, you’re not making it. Also note that “markets are about probabilities and never certainties”. In some of your past articles and indeed in the comments here you have done this by pointing out that the market does what it does, and that while we might conjecture/argue on the psychological reasons why, and we cannot dispute the correlations that we see, and we *can* make predictions based on past market performance under similar conditions. While the trolls will always find a reason to disagree, your thoughtful, first-time readers/listeners will get the message.
    Best of luck. Don’t stop writing, I find your insight extremely useful.
    Jan 12 10:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 43: Beginning Jan. 6, 2011 [View instapost]
    Holy cow! I was out for 2 weeks for the holidays and I come back to find I’m 10+ Concentrators behind! (Jeez, what a lot of reading!) So here are my comments combined (Sorry - I hate long posts, too):

    1) Because I read so many Concentrators consecutively, I noticed that there are many more new commenters starting about Dec 26th than possibly since I started reading many months ago. I suspect that they were reading but not commenting. Or maybe they finally bought at the bottom? I realize the increase has meaning, but I’m not sure what?

    2) There was a comment that noted that the Axion stock float is ~70M shares which means owners etc. = 15M shares. If long-term Axionistas hold 27.5M shares (a reasonable guess), then total “non-sellers” = 42.5M shares = 50% of all shares. --> It *could* be a faster ride up than I previously thought – provided we see any sort of trail of good news (which I’m sure we will – see next point).

    3) I was convinced that TG knew that the end-of-year sell-off was coming, and was holding good news releases to Jan 1 to drive price higher for optimal financing. It appears to be rolling out that way, although I now think that part of the good news might just be additional revenues that would obviate/lessen the need for financing. I’m also expecting more good news (I’m guessing oil rig and possibly military transport are next?).

    4) **Most important** It has finally sunk in to my head how much PbC battery technology is truly *a game-changing, disruptive technology*. It is cheap, completely scalable, more total charge/discharge cycles, charges/discharges faster, is safer, easier to use, has wider operating temperature range, uses recyclable materials, is made of easy-access US materials in the US, appears to finally enable wind/solar, can be used to steady the power grid. *And each of these factors is at least 2X better than the next best option*
    This isn’t as sexy as Apple iPods, but PbC changes *everything* that uses or stores power – *as well as the way they are used*. I’m more convinced than ever that this stock will go viral. Soon.

    5) Finally, I’m currently pondering possibilities regarding:
    a) Military vehicle, ship, plane use (reliability, fuel-transport savings, low cost, *safety*, extreme temperature use, etc)
    b) PowerCube leasing options by power companies and/or other power brokers (Certified power companies buy, end-user rents)
    c) PowerCube leasing options to drillers, crane operators, others TBD (New, intermediary companies buy and rent out to end-users)
    d) Advantages of PowerCube mobility (due to trailer mounting)


    BTW - I am so far behind from time off, it's unlikely I'll respond back to any comments right away. Ha.
    Jan 6 11:13 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Concentrator 34: Beginning Dec. 16, 2011, jakutz's article [View instapost]
    HTL - Back to the Market Makers for a bit with a question from an amateur.

    Could it be that the Marker Makers as a secondary (or maybe not secondary) part of the game are testing the resilience of the price bottom to determine relative strength? In other words, not drive down the price on shorts for profitability at this point in time, but just test the measure of the stockholders willpower so as to gauge future actions on a possible successful smallcap.
    If I were in that (MM) position, and I thought that Axion had some future potential, it would give me an advantage to know that the core stockholders held on under pressure.
    Thanks.
    Dec 18 07:55 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Concentrator 34: Beginning Dec. 16, 2011, jakutz's article [View instapost]
    BTW - Does anyone on this concentrator ever sleep?

    I know one prominent member is 7 hours earlier in Suisse, but the rest of the time stamps? Really! Gosh - And I have a day job too! Ha!
    Dec 18 11:02 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Concentrator 34: Beginning Dec. 16, 2011, jakutz's article [View instapost]
    JohnM says: "We're in, and apparently at the end, of a situation when a larger holder has been selling as quickly as can be done while trying not to destroy the price any more than necessary. I assume they want have ACPW completely off the books by the end of the year. If the trading volume was what it was in 2009, the process would have taken years, not months, and would have severely limited he capital raising efforts for 2012. 2012 is just when the last major round of risk capital is needed to scale to commercial production levels."

    Exactly. What I would add is that I think TG is *well* aware of what is going on, and that we will see news early in the next year followed by financing *after* the price has stabilzed and then recovered.
    Dec 18 10:52 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Concentrator 34: Beginning Dec. 16, 2011, jakutz's article [View instapost]
    Maya, JP - Much appreciate the responses.

    I opted for a conservative approach for an opening conjecture (never stick your head too far out - Ha!)

    I personally believe the Axionistas probably do constitute a 25% to possibly 40% range; then another less-dedicated, JP-article-follower but Non-Concentrator-follower group who each invest $5-10K “a little money on the lottery” adding another 5% to possibly 10%. The latter folks will be divided between those who will sell out quickly, and those who will add more shares upon the advent of rapid price rise confirmation.

    I had not thought to apply the 80/20 rule to Axion share ownership, but it makes perfect sense.

    Maya – I have to agree that the Concentrator is a very new, uncharted, and yet possibly game-changing concept. Yes, we have had open forums for a while, but having so much information, insight, and dedication concentrated in one place – *without trolls and pages of meaningless dreck to spend hours wading through* - is like having a dedicated research team. So, yes, I *do* believe that this could be a new model. The best concentrator use would be limited to covering startups with great potential such as Axion, but still, I do believe that the trading houses *will* start referring to the “GD Concentrators” in the near future. Ha!
    Dec 18 10:46 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Concentrator 34: Beginning Dec. 16, 2011, jakutz's article [View instapost]
    While out for a run today, I was thinking about the distribution of the number of shares.
    85M shares = 100% (roughly)
    8.5M = 10%
    850K = 1%
    85K = 0.1%
    Suppose the *average* number of Axionista shares were 85K (85K x $0.31 ~ $26K). Suppose we have 100 Axionistas in the Concentrator (I think reasonable?), then we hold 10% (I think conservatively? I think it could easily be double that?)
    I know JP has provided non-proprietary information on some of the holdings, but I’m afraid I don’t remember what they were. However, if I remember correctly and after *quickly* looking at some dated information online, it appears the largest owners hold in total about 18M ~ 21%?
    I think the “Big Boys’ (Quercus, SS et al) had had held about 4-5% each *at last measurable count*, and we think they are driving-toward/arrived-at 0%. If they have reached 0%, that would still leaves 60-70% unaccounted for.

    My numbers may be way off, but perhaps those following more closely can take this to the next step? Or at least I hope I may have kicked off an interesting discussion. Depending on the consensus, there *may* be some interesting conclusions possible.
    Dec 17 09:13 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hindenburg Omen Blog - December, 2011 - The HO Is Repaired [View instapost]
    Remember, 84/84 just means the measurable odds are at 100% *based on past performance*. It's not to say that 64/61 does NOT signal a collapse. It almost certainly still correlates - just that the odds are much less.

    Personally, I don't see any nice way out of the current worldwide debt situation. This is not the 'interesting times' I would have necessarily chosen to live in. :-)
    Dec 13 10:48 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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