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  • Thompson Creek Metals: It's Over  [View article]
    Vince, they don't need to raise $600m. Not even close. It's not an easy road for them obviously. Have to agree there. What they need is to push the due dates out and repurchase SOMEof the debt. Ideally (wishfully) under the radar so can do so at min bond prices possible. Yes, there is only a limit of this that they would be able to do for various reasons. But even buying back say $50m face at pennies goes a long way.

    They could (last resort) also do a finite duration stream to raise enough to "retire or mostly retire" the 2017. Dealing with the secured 2017 is the key. Once that gets retired or pushed back, the others could as well (unsecured).

    I agree this is a rough road. But ch 7 isn't extremely unlikely. Unless a black swan event happens, barely even theoretical conceivable. Would have to be ch 11.

    In that scenario, I judge (again IF it got to this point) would push either a equity swap (big dilution) or restructure the debt or combo. The shares would drop initially (10c?????) but with almost no debt load or one that is far more manageable CF would jump big time. Making share prices jump with it. How far depends on the dilution obviously.

    This isn't pie in the sky. There plenty examples. Just look at the airlines not that long ago. American comes to mind first.

    American dropped to 20c range (like Tc, from $20-30). It went through bk and the stock subsequently peaked at about $25-30. Shares were never cancelled in that process.
    Feb 5, 2016. 09:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thompson Creek: Likely Needs Much Higher Metal Prices To Avoid Restructuring  [View article]
    More important question---

    According release, they ran at about 59k mill rate.thats basically a full month at capacity! (Last 2 weeks Dec. - first 2 weeks Jan). That huge.

    So why have a throughput guidance that is what... 20% below what we did last year and maybe 30+% lower than current run rate.

    I think they're sandbagging. I think they're signaling that. I think. Doesn't make sense. If was typo they would have corrected it by now!!!!

    Achieve name plant throughput for about a month.

    Guide 15-20% less dry tonnes conc

    Guide 10% less cu

    Guide 20% more au

    Makes zero sense unless--- SANDBAGGING???
    Jan 19, 2016. 12:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Thompson Creek: Likely Needs Much Higher Metal Prices To Avoid Restructuring  [View article]
    That looks awfully similar to a post I wrote some time ago on SA. ;-) Anyway, I agree. The only thing is that they will not be able to buy the unsecureds back at such discounts. Once the secured is taken out (in that example), the unsecureds price will spike fast back up to par or higher.

    They would have to do the stream and get the cash in hand quickly.... make some (SOME) of the unsecureds purchases as possible until they basically get discovered or announce the plan.

    This thing can change on a dime. And violently.
    Jan 18, 2016. 11:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Thompson Creek Metals: It's Over  [View article]
    All of this is conjecture. We won't have a decent idea really until the CC4 in late Feb. There was a significant amount of bond trading volume in Nov and December in sizable (comparatively speaking) chunks. We don't know who was behind those trades.

    If (yes speculative IF) TC is ultimately behind those trades to scoop up some of the debt on a 4 for 1 fire sale, that could make a decent impact. If they bought back say $20M in the 20-30par range (call it 25 par avg), that's a net impact of taking $80M off the debt ledger (and the $8m/yr in int exps). I am not implying that it was TC scooping them up... only that it was possible!

    Folks don't buy that much distressed bonds in large chunks without a plan. It's possible that its TC. Possible!
    Jan 18, 2016. 10:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thompson Creek Metals: It's Over  [View article]
    This is from RGLD-

    In the event of a sale of the mine, our contract with its current terms is designed to follow the asset. The senior lender is required to honor our contract if they take possession or sell the project.

    In the event of default, we only have the tranche $350 million of senior bonds standing in front of us from a credit perspective... We have a first priority security interest in our 52.25% of the gold in ore and concentrate stockpiles, and a first priority security interest in the assets at Mount Milligan and would be second in line only behind the $350m senior bond—all the other bonds and creditors (except for a few equipment leases) are subordinate to our interest.
    Jan 18, 2016. 10:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Making The Case For Me: The Demise Of Thompson Creek  [View article]
    I suspect that private equity type firms that have - or can transition quickly into having - decent liquidity are all over the mining industry looking for gems (pun intended) to either pick up or provide a life-line on the cheap for a decent return. If there is a takeover, it'll be done by a PE, I bet.

    RGLD is already pretty weighted on TC. I am sure that has some of their investors a little worried. That said, with the write-down hit mentioned in the article to the turn of $75M isn't all that big in comparison. The saving grace with TC is that it is just about literally THE lowest cost copper producer in the world (possibly as low as 20c). That's just a cash generating machine waiting to happen.

    TC really screwed the pooch with how they handled the crusher issue. Unbelievable.

    Solace.... you make money when there is blood in the streets. I think this current environment can be aptly described as "bloodbath". So.... fingers crossed.
    Jan 18, 2016. 10:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Thompson Creek to be delisted by the NYSE; shares halted  [View news story]
    Arbit, they don't need to raise nearly as much money. All they have to do is raise enough to get them past the 2017 bond. The 2018/19 bonds will be a cake walk to refi at much lower rates once the secured 2017 is gone. I think something may be afoot which explains the guidance. They show a 20% increase in au with a 15% drop in cu. That is confounding to the point of wondering if that is even physically / engineeringly possible. There's a message there, I think. I think!!!!!!! A high au production would be enticing to someone like RGLD if a short term stream was in works.

    Imagine this: RGLD, give us $xxxM and we'll give you the next xxx koz of the unstressed au at say 30% discount. RGLD get paid back within 2-3 yrs max with a hefty return plus s stable / no surprises anchored stream from before.... And.... Tc gets past the choke point.

    Even better this could be done in such a way as to mix in a small buy back of the 18/19 bonds at these ridiculously low prices.

    This stock can jump $2-3 literally overnight with an announcement. If.... If... They do this right.
    Jan 17, 2016. 10:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thompson Creek to be delisted by the NYSE; shares halted  [View news story]
    The feb cc may be packed with news. Shall see. Maybe some asset sales? Some debt bought back? Crusher? But I expect cash on hand to be rather disappointing.
    Jan 16, 2016. 02:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thompson Creek to be delisted by the NYSE; shares halted  [View news story]
    If by end you mean takeover, I'll have to agree.
    Jan 15, 2016. 08:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Thompson Creek to be delisted by the NYSE; shares halted  [View news story]
    Arbit, precisely my point. If they were talking in a manner which suggested that they don't care about delisting, then why didn't they voluntarily delist and move to OTCQX on their own terms? Other miners have done that in recent months without "incident". As you said, they had months to do it beforehand. But didn't!

    Raises a red flag with me that having "adult supervision" with 2 advisors (or at least THESE 2 advisors) isn't helping. I felt better when they announced them but now not so sure. Definitely on my watch list so to speak.

    Still- Tc has the lowest cu producing mine in the world (just about) so BK liquidation is only realistic if metals really do fall off the cliff from here. Not likely.

    I'd have to think that private equity firms will notice Tc soon enough and try to take it over. Tc will never see full rebound-- it's either bk or buyout sub $1-2 max! It will never see $3+ again. Just my humble opinion.
    Jan 15, 2016. 08:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thompson Creek to be delisted by the NYSE; shares halted  [View news story]
    I am not convinced, in fact - I highly doubt, that TC made any attempts to prevent delisting or obtain extensions. I suspect that they received the letter from NYSE last summer. Provided some form of "go pound sand" response followed by iterative and unproductive communications between NYSE and TC. It simply does not appear to be the case that the execs ever had any sense of urgency or commitment to keep TC as a going concern.

    When Perron gets fired, I'd like to know what he lands so that that I can go all-in shorting that stock to recoup the carnage he created here.
    Jan 14, 2016. 04:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thompson Creek Metals: How Does This Not End At Zero?  [View article]
    I am beginning to think that maybe (MAYBE) they are a lot farther along on the debt refi situation than meets the eye. The whole new crusher issue has been a burr in my side since they surprised everybody with it on a conf call last year. They placed the long lead time order in Q4 - which basically means some time in Oct. They committed some $9-12M for this year as what amounts to a prepayment being spun as a 'deposit'. So riddle me this: why would a company place such a large order, commit that level of cash while in this situation if it thinks that there is even a remote chance that it will be putting the kabosh on it three months later? This is baked in the cake. It's happening.

    So if that line of thinking is true and we believe that management is at least remotely sane, then they have to be confident about the "refi". I am starting to think that they will be announcing this debt deal in the next 4-6 weeks (on or before the Jan production release).

    Furthermore, I bet they moved heaven and earth to make that negative cu cash cost number to happen. Window dressing as they get ready to have the syndication papers signed. Just a hunch. Can easily be wrong, but I have a feeling.
    Nov 12, 2015. 11:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thompson Creek Metals Recorded A Loss Again, It Will Consider Debt Refinancing Or Restructuring And Asset Sales  [View article]
    They didn't do a good job of explaining the price adjustments.
    Nov 11, 2015. 05:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thompson Creek Metals: How Does This Not End At Zero?  [View article]
    There were 2 elephants in the room that was not mentioned-- amarc and what commitments come with the long lead orders. Shocked neither was asked. Delisting, I think the analysts presumed that to be the case or r-split.

    Long lead order, if they decide "no", then what are they on the hook for? (Cancellation or delay fees). The analysts pushed Tc here but Perron wasn't sharp to understand what they were really asking when they said that it seemed like Tc already made the "go" decision.

    I have made repeated inquiries with Tc IR about some of these issues but no response at all. Likely just further evidence they don't know what they're doing??!?!??
    Nov 11, 2015. 05:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thompson Creek Metals: How Does This Not End At Zero?  [View article]
    If they had hired Moelis & Co only, you'd have a stronger position. But with BMO Capital Markets onboard, signaling some sort of raise/refi (equity, debt, combo, etc) is the focus. Why would they need to engage BMOCM if bk was what they were looking at? I agree... it takes a VERY STRONG stomach to be in this stock right now. And Perron/Saxton aren't the folks the folks that exactly instill confidence in the market(s).

    I think TC survives (with some equity remaining), but it will be in spite of, not because of, Perron/Saxton. IMHO.
    Nov 11, 2015. 12:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment