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  • A Low Beta, High Dividend Growth Rate Portfolio With 3.4% Yield And 20% DGR [View article]
    LOL. That's what I happens when my attention is divided when writing.
    Mar 19 02:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Low Beta, High Dividend Growth Rate Portfolio With 3.4% Yield And 20% DGR [View article]
    I really like the model's methodology. Well done, thought out. Very insightful.

    However, 30 stocks for a virtual portfolio of $300k seems awfully cumbersome or expensive. That equates, on average, to about $1k per stock. At $16 in/out transaction cost, that's a headwind of 1.6%. Thats higher than what mutual funds even charge. To me, this seems more appropriate (cost wise) for maybe a $1M+ portfolio -- OR -- reducing the number of stocks to maybe 15 at least to get it down below 1% headwind. No?

    Unless I am having a brain-fart and my math is off. ;-)
    Mar 19 10:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Value Of Procter & Gamble's Parts [View article]
    Good analytical reasoning.
    Jan 29 10:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Be Fooled By Krispy Kreme's Dirt-Cheap P/E Ratio [View article]
    My point is that Morgan has already proven himself. He has some 12-16 (3-4 years any way) of sound quarter by quarter core business improvement. How much longer of a run time do you need before realizing he's done (is doing) his job admirably? I spotted it back when the stock was hovering around $3. It's now pushing $12. Not a bad little $50-60K profit for me. The key to making serious profit is being able to spot the trend before others do and jump on.

    One of my "tools" is screening for stocks which are down significantly over a short/mid term period (KKD back in 2009, HPQ, TC, YHOO, others). Then look to see if there is any management or other business catalyst emerging. In KKD, I spotted a a number of consecutive quarters of q/q improvement, researched, and found it to be a great spec play. Now its a matter of when to gradually take profits off the table.

    For those who care... other stocks ID'ed include TC (Thompson Creek - a mining company). I invested in that one at about $2.75 its now in the low/mid $4 range. I expect it to hit $8-$10 by year end with the catalyst of their new huge gold/metals mine to come online in Q4. Do your own homework.

    I am considering HPQ and YHOO and next "catalyst" spec plays.

    Last comment about KKD. I have heard these same exact arguments over and over again for the past 3+ years. In that time, I went from $3 to almost $12 on this thing. I believe in the next couple years, KKD (barring general market meltdowns) could flirt with $20. That'll be the point I am completely out of the stock.
    Jan 9 12:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware These Low P/E Traps (Part 2) [View article]
    I invested in kkd few yrs ago and recall countless time where people warned of the PE ratio (back then way too high, now misleadingly low). People recommending to short this stock Countless occasions. in that time, my investment went from about 2.80 to now 8.00... In practical terms, a 3-bagger in roughly 2 1/2 yrs.

    This is a stock where people are making judgments from the book cover (cursory look at ratios) without reading the pages in between (fundamental, business analysis).

    this stock will likely outperform the market over the next 12-18 months.
    Sep 19 04:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Be Fooled By Krispy Kreme's Dirt-Cheap P/E Ratio [View article]
    That all being said, I think the biggest threat to KKD stock price is commodity cost.... particularly sugar, obviously. There are some long term risks as well... not the least of which is any national trend towards healthier foods. Even so, international expansion will have a much less impact on that than it would domestically.

    Bottom line: the stock price this time next year will be higher than it is today... and the same will apply to each of the subsequent 3-5 years as well.
    Jun 19 06:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Be Fooled By Krispy Kreme's Dirt-Cheap P/E Ratio [View article]
    Have to disagree with the author. His "dislikes" against the stock:

    1. Low artificial p/e. Yes because of GAAP rules. PEG is 0.73 which indicates cheap... Value.

    2. CEO has limited experience? He saved the company from bankruptcy. Compare that to his predecessors bio of "skills" and how that person ran it in ditch. Morgan proved his chops in last 3 yrs.

    3. kkd is not recession proof. Duh. What is these days? Ps: despite 2008 credit/market crash, Morgan kept kkd alive. Since then, they're up 500-600%!!!!

    4. international store decline? Not sure about that one. No real comment other than kkd has been shutting down weak stores.

    5. Low margins. Improving!

    6. Could be valid point.
    Jun 19 05:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bond Replication Using Costless Collars [View article]
    Transaction costs would eat into these calcs wouldnt they. This would require (at least) about $6500 in trades. And with $55-$60 in likely transaction costs, this would chew up about 100bps in the yield.Taking that into account and the tight margins on WMT play, seems like it's actually a little more expensive. Am I missing something?
    Apr 3 02:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks With A Solid History Of Dividend Growth [View article]
    Tennis, I thought the same thing... is 2% really "strong", etc? But the notion behind the article is DIVIDEND GROWTH. Though that lense, he might still have an argument.

    UnionPac: Dividend $ up ~300% in last 5 years. Payout % is low.

    Emerson: Dividend $ up 50% in last 5 yrs. Reasonable payout %.

    Pitney: Divident $ growth neglible, but still has whopper yield %.

    JPM: Your criticism is valid here. Dividend $ has dropped but considering its a bank / financial crisis, that expected. Maybe he's thinking it will start to grow again post crisis. But your criticism might be fair/warranted here.

    Ericsson: Ditto. Your criticism could be fair with this one as well.
    Feb 15 12:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks With A Solid History Of Dividend Growth [View article]
    What consideration was given to the long term business fundamentals in selecting these dividend payers?

    For example, I see Pitney Bowes and Union Pacific having a very challenging future in terms of trying to expand their business base. So, in my mind, those two in particular may have a difficulty in maintaining the same level of profitability, etc. Ultimately putting downward pressure on their dividends.

    I guess this is a long winded way of asking if you took into considerating how "safe" these dividend streams are over the LONG HAUL....?
    Feb 14 09:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividends Vs. Technicals: What's Going On With Rimage [View article]
    They released qumu financials as of acquisition. The balance sheet and cash flow statements are concerning. Cash flow was negative $5m or so and debt around $3m. That's understandable for a small growing company. BUT, it suggests to me that they grossly over paid for the acquisition. Maybe by even a factor of 3. Just my opinion, take a look at the SEC filings for yourself. I also find it interesting that a venture cap funded startup had so much debt. Would interesting to know if that was "new" debt or "old" debt to see if VC backers were skittish themselves to put more money in or if was how they funded company in very early days. I wish them success but I find it difficult to buy until the next consolidated quarterly release to see what's going on. If strong, it should jump nicely, if a drag, watch out below! So too risky for me at this point.
    Jan 28 04:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Rimage: All That Cash [View article]
    Its down another $1 (almost 10% on top of the -10% from yesterday) in midday trading.

    I think they sealed their fate. They have to go for a buyout by Sony or someone else. They will not survive on their own after this deal goes through.
    Oct 11 11:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rimage: All That Cash [View article]
    TheBig. I have to admire your optimism. But the glass is empty on this one. Mr. Market not liking the deal is putting it mildly to say the least. The stock is trading at NEGATIVE enterprise value. That takes a special level of "dumb acquisitions" to accomplish this feat.

    What this means is that one (likely more) of the large institutional investors finally threw in the hat and dumping shares! With it being a bad deal, there is no one left behind to pick those shares up. So, look out below!

    There are two tiny bright spots. First, they didn't blow the entire cash bank at this or any other deal. Second, at least they used some, albeit not enough, shares to purchase the company saving the cash for a special dividend.

    The CEO said that he is now laser focused on integration and will not look at any more deals. If that is the case, then he needs to step up and declare a special dividend of at least $5/share minimum.

    With $80 million still on the balance sheet, investors will be scared that he will burn through that cash to keep Qumu going (remember it is venture cap funded up to this point) or worse, make another deal. If there is no special dividend, watch this thing fall to $6-$8 range by Thanksgiving.
    Oct 11 10:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Warren Buffett's 12 Largest Holdings [View article]
    It is interesting that 5 of Buffet's Top 12 investments are in the Financial Services industry. I find that to be an extraordinary level of exposure. Interesting.
    Oct 4 09:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rimage Corporation: On the Rise With Extensive Free Cash Flow Reserve [View article]
    Trading literally just pennies more than cash per share. Incredible. I have heard of MMA "breaking the buck".... but a stock? WOW.
    Sep 2 03:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment