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investor987

investor987
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  • Krispy Kreme: Turnaround That's Making Shareholder Profits [View article]
    I have been following Krispy Kreme for a couple of years now. And by follow... I mean "investor". I started buying in when it was in the $2s.... yes, it was a contrarian play. I trusted the strong brand loyalty would either A) force a buyout or B) the new management team would be able to turn the company around..... or a combination of the two.

    Over that time, I have bought and tons of shares.... a $ portion consistently invested in the stock and another $ portion going in/out depending on the environment. Frankly, I got pretty good at figuring out the idiosyncracies of how it trades. Average daily volume has more than doubled over this time from about 900k shares to almost pushing 2M.

    It tends to trend up leading into the announcement and then pulls back over the following few weeks. The most common criticism of the stock was the huge P/E ... and I still here it from time to time. But that comes from folks who don't look deeper at why that was.... when a company swings from a loss to a profit, that profit initially low -- thereby "artificially" inflating the PE(ttm). But it has been trading in a consister P/E(fwd) 20s which is far more important a metric.

    I see this stock hitting $10 by Christmas time and the low $teens first half next year. We'll see though. We'll see how the new coffee rollout goes as it launches this week.

    Great article.
    Aug 29 11:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rimage Corporation: On the Rise With Extensive Free Cash Flow Reserve [View article]
    sorry.... i mean after cash basis.... ev.
    Aug 23 02:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rimage Corporation: On the Rise With Extensive Free Cash Flow Reserve [View article]
    less than PE 1? wow. crazy stuff!!
    Aug 23 02:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Interesting Earnings Reports for Next Week [View article]
    With KKD mgmt selling off KKD-Mex recently and (presumably) using that money to further pay down their debt ought to bode quite well for the stock on Thurs. The lower debt burden should free up that much more FCF to allow mgmt to give just a little bit rosier outlook. Particularly with the new coffee line coming out in a couple months.

    Stiller doubling down on his investment in KDD also bodes quite well. The market is expecting 6c (vs 3c last year). I think this thing is going to coming in around 9c ... and maybe.... just maybe.... with a little bit of elbow grease, it will hit 10c. Though I wouldnt press my luck THAT much. I think 9c is "THE" number.

    If it does beat at 9c.... what would that do to the stock price? Theoretically, it would have about a $1 price bump. Not bad. I'll take it! BUT. With the short squeeze factor in-play, I wouldnt be surprised if it spikes to $9 by the bell on Fri.

    We shall see.
    Aug 20 01:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Superyield Retirement Strategy [View article]
    Careful what you ask for. I am sure that Fitch and Moodys will start their series of downgrades soon. US Ts havent been hard hit - yet. I presume because its only been S&P so far that downgraded it. The Fall could get ugly.

    S&P downgraded because they didnt think that Congress/WH understood the debt problem. That was shown when Washington thought that increasing the debt by $8T solved the problem of the debt going up by $10T over the next 10 years. I know crazy, but that's what the debt deal signaled to the markets. And thats why S&P made the downgrade.
    Aug 11 11:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Superyield Retirement Strategy [View article]
    Brandon, I am curious as to your take/thoughts on your portfolio's implied Beta. Did Beta come to your mind at all in pursuing this "expertiment" as you call it. If not, does it change your forward looking view at all. Just curious. Thanks. Good luck.
    Aug 9 02:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Superyield Retirement Strategy [View article]
    Nevermind. I noticed you said equal weighted so I took the time to calculate the portfolio beta.... MLPL doesnt have one so I took that one one out. Otherwise, looks like your Beta is 1.01. INTERESTING.

    beta
    bpt 0.81
    drw 1.14
    fte 0.79
    jnk 1.54
    nmm 1.17
    pff 0.92
    rem 0.72
    Aug 9 01:27 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Superyield Retirement Strategy [View article]
    Brandon, can you take a look and see what the composite (avg) Beta is for that portfolio? I am curious what risk you are taking for that level of income. Whats your weighted avg Beta for this portfolio? Thanks
    Aug 9 01:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 30 Dividend Paying Consumer Stocks for Defensive Investing [View article]
    Thanks. I think I'll be doing the same. I am a LT investor as well.
    Aug 8 12:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Capital Management Looks Even Better as the Economy Crashes [View article]
    Then by definition you're saying QE3 because someone has to buy that debt and if no one else will because the rates are too low... then.... the Fed has to to keep the rates low. If that ends up being the case then its all going to get even uglier when the party ends. Ugh.
    Aug 8 12:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 12 High-Dividend, Low-Beta Stocks to Consider During a Down Market [View article]
    Of course with the dividend payers, its also critical to keep a close eye on the payout ratio. A 5% dividend might sound great, but if it comes at 100% payout ratio (extreme for example purposes) then obviously that dividend will likely be facing some serious pressure to be lowered. (non-REIT stocks).

    I really conceptually like the idea of reinvesting it ... dollar cost avg future positions on a GOOD solid company/stock. But at the same time it has to presume that you are already well diversified. Otherwise, those dividends might be better served in accomplishing that.

    (off topic) I prefer investing in individual companies over ETFs, mutual funds as a general rule. With funds, you buy stocks you dont otherwise want. The only exception being, perhaps, emerging market investments.
    Aug 7 12:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 30 Dividend Paying Consumer Stocks for Defensive Investing [View article]
    Insider Monkey. Curious to get your thoughts on this question / topic.

    For those investing in income stocks (dividend payers like the list here), should the dividends....?

    .... Automatically reinvest right back into that same stock?
    .... Keep as cash for this volatile market / times?
    .... When enough $$ accumulated, buy other stocks?

    I am transitioning from a value investor to a value/income blend type investor. Am struggling with ideas of what to do with the income.
    Aug 7 12:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 12 High-Dividend, Low-Beta Stocks to Consider During a Down Market [View article]
    Osman, and the others, what are your thoughts about what to do with the dividend income. In general and with consideration to the gyrations we are in right now with the markets.

    Reinvest the dividends right back into the same stock OR collect and hold the cash dividends OR buy other stocks with the dividends when enough accumulated....?????

    Thoughts????
    Aug 7 12:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Building a Model Income Portfolio Sector by Sector: Part 6 - Industrials [View article]
    I am skeptical of Defense stocks for the points you mentioned: budget cuts coming. I like Waste Mgmt because it's also diversifying into power generation through the off-gases at its waste sites. EMR is a great company... very well managed because of its discipline. I never considered Stanely/B&D before but I might have to keep an eye on them moving forward since their current yield below their avg (ie: converging to the mean is upside).

    I agree and like this approach for longterm investing and diversification.

    I have a question though in terms of creating/managing a personal INCOME portfolio.

    Should the dividends be reinvested into the stock or collected as cash. When enough accumulated, buy into other stocks along the way...??????
    Aug 6 11:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Acquisition of MySpace Could Double Sirius XM's Stock Price [View article]
    Where are you getting $33/user from? FB is grossly over-valued at the projected $80-$90B or whatever it is now. That valuation puts it at about 40-50x sales. Not to mention PE. The user base is at 700+M worldwide. Yes, that is an amazing achievement and outstanding user growth. Kudos to them for that.

    HOWEVER, converting those users into a revenue stream isn't quite happening at the rate they probably hoped. I know they make money following the Google model ("adwords", banners, etc). But if they dont start getting that $$ conversion, this company is going to tank -- at least as an investment. Not saying users will flee like they did MySpace. But it could happen in the future. In this field, never say never.

    I like the idea of MySpace trying to re-emerge into market importance through indy music or maybe even other performing arts. Thats actually not a bad idea. YouTube would be a headwind but the social networking advantages of MySpace might (MIGHT) give it an edge. Who knows.

    Either way... I will definitely NOT be buying any SIRI stock any time soon. Nor anyone investing in MySpace.
    Aug 6 01:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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