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investor987

investor987
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  • Thompson Creek Appears Destined To Fail [View article]
    I completely agree with xtddd. MM is being perceived as a Gold mine when in reality it is a Copper mine with a dream of a by-product. Lets put some things in perspective.

    At $1000 Au and $3 Cu (both about 10% below where they are today), MM will generate $477M in net revenue (including RGLD). That one mine will be generating more revenue than the rest of the company combined. At today's prices ($1201 and $3.30), it comes to $532M. If prices go to 12month highs, it comes to $635M.

    Even with total mining cost of $280M that comes to a range of $200M to $355M / year to pay down the debt (or more likely refi). I think solvency (barring a complete commodity market meltdown of epic proportions) is a stretch at best. Just my opinion looking at it from a macro-level.
    Dec 19 09:52 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Low Beta, High Dividend Growth Rate Portfolio With 3.4% Yield And 20% DGR [View article]
    LOL. That's what I happens when my attention is divided when writing.
    Mar 19 02:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Superyield Retirement Strategy [View article]
    Nevermind. I noticed you said equal weighted so I took the time to calculate the portfolio beta.... MLPL doesnt have one so I took that one one out. Otherwise, looks like your Beta is 1.01. INTERESTING.

    beta
    bpt 0.81
    drw 1.14
    fte 0.79
    jnk 1.54
    nmm 1.17
    pff 0.92
    rem 0.72
    Aug 9 01:27 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thompson Creek Appears Destined To Fail [View article]
    Bob, that might be true but remember "labor management issues" (ie: union problems) vary country by country. In chile, its a nightmare. In canada, not so much as an example. Not to mention political risks. You can invest $100B in North Korea to build new mine. You think it'll be worth $100B when it's done? Dont think so.
    Dec 17 10:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Low Beta, High Dividend Growth Rate Portfolio With 3.4% Yield And 20% DGR [View article]
    I really like the model's methodology. Well done, thought out. Very insightful.

    However, 30 stocks for a virtual portfolio of $300k seems awfully cumbersome or expensive. That equates, on average, to about $1k per stock. At $16 in/out transaction cost, that's a headwind of 1.6%. Thats higher than what mutual funds even charge. To me, this seems more appropriate (cost wise) for maybe a $1M+ portfolio -- OR -- reducing the number of stocks to maybe 15 at least to get it down below 1% headwind. No?

    Unless I am having a brain-fart and my math is off. ;-)
    Mar 19 10:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks With A Solid History Of Dividend Growth [View article]
    Tennis, I thought the same thing... is 2% really "strong", etc? But the notion behind the article is DIVIDEND GROWTH. Though that lense, he might still have an argument.

    UnionPac: Dividend $ up ~300% in last 5 years. Payout % is low.

    Emerson: Dividend $ up 50% in last 5 yrs. Reasonable payout %.

    Pitney: Divident $ growth neglible, but still has whopper yield %.

    JPM: Your criticism is valid here. Dividend $ has dropped but considering its a bank / financial crisis, that expected. Maybe he's thinking it will start to grow again post crisis. But your criticism might be fair/warranted here.

    Ericsson: Ditto. Your criticism could be fair with this one as well.
    Feb 15 12:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks With A Solid History Of Dividend Growth [View article]
    What consideration was given to the long term business fundamentals in selecting these dividend payers?

    For example, I see Pitney Bowes and Union Pacific having a very challenging future in terms of trying to expand their business base. So, in my mind, those two in particular may have a difficulty in maintaining the same level of profitability, etc. Ultimately putting downward pressure on their dividends.

    I guess this is a long winded way of asking if you took into considerating how "safe" these dividend streams are over the LONG HAUL....?
    Feb 14 09:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividends Vs. Technicals: What's Going On With Rimage [View article]
    They released qumu financials as of acquisition. The balance sheet and cash flow statements are concerning. Cash flow was negative $5m or so and debt around $3m. That's understandable for a small growing company. BUT, it suggests to me that they grossly over paid for the acquisition. Maybe by even a factor of 3. Just my opinion, take a look at the SEC filings for yourself. I also find it interesting that a venture cap funded startup had so much debt. Would interesting to know if that was "new" debt or "old" debt to see if VC backers were skittish themselves to put more money in or if was how they funded company in very early days. I wish them success but I find it difficult to buy until the next consolidated quarterly release to see what's going on. If strong, it should jump nicely, if a drag, watch out below! So too risky for me at this point.
    Jan 28 04:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My Superyield Retirement Strategy [View article]
    Brandon, can you take a look and see what the composite (avg) Beta is for that portfolio? I am curious what risk you are taking for that level of income. Whats your weighted avg Beta for this portfolio? Thanks
    Aug 9 01:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 30 Dividend Paying Consumer Stocks for Defensive Investing [View article]
    Thanks. I think I'll be doing the same. I am a LT investor as well.
    Aug 8 12:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 12 High-Dividend, Low-Beta Stocks to Consider During a Down Market [View article]
    Of course with the dividend payers, its also critical to keep a close eye on the payout ratio. A 5% dividend might sound great, but if it comes at 100% payout ratio (extreme for example purposes) then obviously that dividend will likely be facing some serious pressure to be lowered. (non-REIT stocks).

    I really conceptually like the idea of reinvesting it ... dollar cost avg future positions on a GOOD solid company/stock. But at the same time it has to presume that you are already well diversified. Otherwise, those dividends might be better served in accomplishing that.

    (off topic) I prefer investing in individual companies over ETFs, mutual funds as a general rule. With funds, you buy stocks you dont otherwise want. The only exception being, perhaps, emerging market investments.
    Aug 7 12:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 30 Dividend Paying Consumer Stocks for Defensive Investing [View article]
    Insider Monkey. Curious to get your thoughts on this question / topic.

    For those investing in income stocks (dividend payers like the list here), should the dividends....?

    .... Automatically reinvest right back into that same stock?
    .... Keep as cash for this volatile market / times?
    .... When enough $$ accumulated, buy other stocks?

    I am transitioning from a value investor to a value/income blend type investor. Am struggling with ideas of what to do with the income.
    Aug 7 12:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Building a Model Income Portfolio Sector by Sector: Part 6 - Industrials [View article]
    I am skeptical of Defense stocks for the points you mentioned: budget cuts coming. I like Waste Mgmt because it's also diversifying into power generation through the off-gases at its waste sites. EMR is a great company... very well managed because of its discipline. I never considered Stanely/B&D before but I might have to keep an eye on them moving forward since their current yield below their avg (ie: converging to the mean is upside).

    I agree and like this approach for longterm investing and diversification.

    I have a question though in terms of creating/managing a personal INCOME portfolio.

    Should the dividends be reinvested into the stock or collected as cash. When enough accumulated, buy into other stocks along the way...??????
    Aug 6 11:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 mREITs to Trade as the Debt Deadline Nears [View article]
    I am a little worried about diving into REITs when the interest rates will surely be moving up in the coming months and years. These current rates are artificially low. Now with an increase in the debt ceiling, insignificant spending cuts, and no political or national will to truly solve the problem, I dont see how our AAA rating will not be negatively impacted. Its when... not if... a downgrade is coming.

    I notices on NLY's latest balance sheet that they have some $80B of debt. Seems to me that even a slight increase in the interest rates will have HUGE HUGE HUGE negative impact!

    Too risky for me.
    Aug 1 07:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: The Future Of Thompson Creek's Eponymous Mine [View article]
    I have confidence, albeit starting to wane, in Perron's management skills to turn this company around. However, the executive team as a whole needs a major shakeup. It is incomprehensible to me that they would bring up this whole issue of the secondary crusher at MM. According to the conference call (see transcript), this "test" will enable them to decide on whether or not to move forward with a new crusher at a price tag of $50-$75M and 9-12 months (which really means $75-$100M and 12-18 months). Why in the world, if rampup will get to 100% by first half 2015 (Q1? Q2?), would Perron even suggest that a new crusher will get them to 100% nameplate faster? By the time its installed, it's already at that point. Or is it not???

    TCM is their cash cow at the moment. Someone might want to let Perron and Saxton know that little secret.
    Aug 8 10:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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