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investor987

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  • Thompson Creek: Still Cash Flow Positive Despite Weak Metal Prices [View article]
    Seems to me that buying back some of that 2018 bond trading below par would be a wise move. I believe that is permitted under the covenants. It avoids the make-whole premiums, reduces debt, reduces int exp, demonstrates confidence, etc. Granted wont be huge volumes, but something is better than nothing. Even if $5-$10M per quarter.
    Dec 5, 2014. 01:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thompson Creek Metals: A Risky Company [View article]
    By the way, if bankruptcy is such a real possibility, don't you think that RGLD would be a little more concerned about losing their stream instead of touting it all over the place to investors?
    Dec 3, 2014. 01:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Thompson Creek Metals: A Risky Company [View article]
    Josh, ok. He states EBITDA is $266m and that debt-to-EBITDA is 7.21. And that debt is "total liabilities". Is that what you're saying.

    You appear to have an interest in this stock (why else would you have seen and commented). I strongly encourage you to listen to Saxton's presentation from Tuesday morning. I posted the link in this comment thread. Should be easy to find. It's only about 25mins long.

    Listen/read the presentation. Listen to the Q&A from the "bankers" in the room.
    Dec 3, 2014. 12:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thompson Creek Metals: A Risky Company [View article]
    If readers are interested in other, better reasoned analysis and perspectives on TC, suggest these other articles below that present a fairer picture. This author is writing from a misconception that was talked about a year ago. Since that time, cash balance has increased, debt has decreased (technically speaking albeit by small amount), and the MM is starting to spit off a huge amount of cash. Apparently, 77cpp cash cost for copper puts this stock in the bankruptcy pile. Laughable.

    Here are some other perspectives that are far more fair....
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Press release: http://bit.ly/1vcYeY3
    Dec 2, 2014. 12:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thompson Creek Metals: A Risky Company [View article]
    Tex, there are so many things wrong with this analysis that I (and others) simply cannot take it seriously. Aside from the math issues, his thesis was raised a year ago and summarily debunked rather quickly. This author's thesis is BANKRUPTCY RISK IS REAL. Sorry, but not even close. If he had concluded that it was likely to under-perform the sector/market or other mining stocks with better risk/reward profiles, that would've been OK. I would disagree but it would be ok. To yell fire in a crowded theater on TC is just silliness beyond compare.

    NO ONE... I repeat... NO ONE... is declaring TC to be a bankruptcy risk even with low metal prices seen today (mo, cu, au). He's quote Dan Earle to support his thesis. This is an analyst that has increased his target price for TC by 300% over the past year. That's how messed up this article is.
    Dec 2, 2014. 12:05 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thompson Creek Metals: A Risky Company [View article]
    Your article is WAYYY off base. You didn't even watch/listen to TC's presentation this morning to the Bank of America industry conference in FL, did you? I strongly encourage you (and readers) to do so. You'll get a very different view from this weak analysis. http://bit.ly/12mEew7.

    The author should also check his math. For example, "Moreover, with an EBITDA of $266 million for the year, the debt-to-EBITDA ratio is 7.21." Not sure what Chinese math gets you 7.21 when you state that EBITDA is $266m and Debt is $900M. So, 900/266=7.21? Ummmm... ok.
    Dec 2, 2014. 11:18 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: The Future Of Thompson Creek's Eponymous Mine [View article]
    I have confidence, albeit starting to wane, in Perron's management skills to turn this company around. However, the executive team as a whole needs a major shakeup. It is incomprehensible to me that they would bring up this whole issue of the secondary crusher at MM. According to the conference call (see transcript), this "test" will enable them to decide on whether or not to move forward with a new crusher at a price tag of $50-$75M and 9-12 months (which really means $75-$100M and 12-18 months). Why in the world, if rampup will get to 100% by first half 2015 (Q1? Q2?), would Perron even suggest that a new crusher will get them to 100% nameplate faster? By the time its installed, it's already at that point. Or is it not???

    TCM is their cash cow at the moment. Someone might want to let Perron and Saxton know that little secret.
    Aug 8, 2014. 10:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Thompson Creek Metals' Earnings [View article]
    I am very long TC. That said it is still the case that TC management provided disjointed and confusing messages in today's conference call Q&A. Where analysts were seeking clarity on the issues they were interested in, management only fostered greater confusion in how they handled those questions. This was highlighted in questions surrounding TCM care & maintenenace, secondary crusher for Mt Milligan, and other topics.

    The quarter performance was excellent. However, the conference call itself was confusing at best.
    Aug 6, 2014. 06:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Qumu: Room To Fall As Losses Widen And Revenue Growth Slows [View article]
    Makes you wonder why management didnt just look for an acquirer of the old Rimage business. Instead, they acquired another company. Effectively made it the parent and spun off the original. Makes you scratch your head... seems like they were/are far more interested in their own job than creating shareholder value. Why would anyone ever invest in a company with that mindset? I dont get it. Short this puppy!
    Jun 2, 2014. 12:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thompson Creek Really Has To Execute Now [View article]
    It flirted with $3 on Fri but but only for a view short time. It'll get there. I am surprised by the volume on Fri -- it was only 3+M shares against an avg of 1.9M or so. Hardly a "high volume day" that I would have expected. Maybe next week once the analyst updates start coming out? Shall see.

    This stock reminds me soooo much of KKD of 2009. So many parallels. It was sub $1-$3 for a while as the new CEO started to try and right the listing ship. It got battered by "haters". But after a steady 3 year period of progressive balance sheet improvements (ie: HUGE debt), those haters flipped their tune and it surged all the way up to $26 (it has recently retraced back down to about $19). But still.... just shows the power of bringing in a focused and talented new CEO. I base much of my "faith" in this as a long-term (3-5 years) play based, IN PART, on the numerous structural parallels I see with KKD.

    I dont know if the timing will take 3-4-5-6-7 years, but EVENTUALLY this stock will get into the teens or even $20 if not bought out by then. Just my humble opinion.
    Feb 22, 2014. 12:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thompson Creek Metals Management Discusses Q4 2013 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    BUY BUY BUY
    Feb 21, 2014. 03:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thompson Creek Really Has To Execute Now [View article]
    Given the news filled day, I am a little surprised about the moderate trading volume in comparison to what it "should have been" so to speak. Maybe it'll take off once the analyst reports start hitting the wires?
    Feb 21, 2014. 02:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thompson Creek Really Has To Execute Now [View article]
    Another kicker. Today is options expiration. As I type this, price is at $2.85 (up 18c) with the CC to commence in about 30 mins. Pre-CC volume is on pace to be almost 4x avg volume (volume may unleash even more after the call, shall see). This bodes very very very well for TC. A ton of the open $3 Feb options were between 5-10c which means ITM at $3.05-$3.10. It's quite possible we'll flirt with those levels before the bell.
    Feb 21, 2014. 10:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thompson Creek Really Has To Execute Now [View article]
    For it to trade below $1, you are imputing risks that apply to ALL miners and not solely TC (metal prices crash and the mines having massive surprise problems. That can happen at ALL mines. It's industry risk. Even if mm gets stuck forever at this production level below 60% it's still cash flow positive.
    Feb 20, 2014. 08:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thompson Creek Really Has To Execute Now [View article]
    Because of the cash flow coming off MM and easing of concerns that TC would not be able to refi/paydown their debt. At current prices, MM will spit off almost $200M this year.
    Feb 19, 2014. 11:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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