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Willaby

Willaby
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  • Pinnacle Foods: Buyout Premium Is Still Embedded Into The Shares [View article]
    I agree with the author, good article. I picked up some shares in Q3, after Hillshire canceled, figuring another offer could come along and if not I'd enjoy the ~3% yield and slow growth. Now it's acting like it has a buyout offer. It's 15% higher than Hillshire would have paid. I'd like to get out, but I hate paying the short term gain taxes. There aren't even leaps I could sell to lock in my gains. Ok, I shouldn't be complaining.

    Wonder who would be a likely buyer? Off the top of my head, I'd say maybe CAG. But this will deflate quickly after the KRFT buzz gets old.
    Apr 2, 2015. 12:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Kraft Is Not A Good Investment Candidate [View article]
    I don't think it would be a bad idea to use proceeds from a KRFT sale or the dividend to buy HSY. I bought Pinnacle Foods shortly after the deal with Hillshire fell through believing it was a good price at the time and will eventually be bought out. It's a little high priced now, but would be relative pocket change to the likes of 3G/Buffett or similar.
    Mar 27, 2015. 10:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Emerson Electric Returns 7% Per Year For Long-Term Dividend Investors, Despite Low Oil Prices [View article]
    My thoughts exactly. Have owned EMR and ETN for the last two years. I've only added to ETN. Good timing (and gutsy) on the Cooper acquisition and the move to Ireland. Nothing bad to say about EMR, but my new money goes to ETN on the dips.
    Mar 1, 2015. 02:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Yum Brands: Taco Bell Is Becoming The Breakfast Of Champions [View article]
    With the stock price almost at an all time high I'm wondering if I should sell or at least set a 1.5% trail stop at $79-80 and hope for the better. Revenues flat for the last 3 years and there's something every year, usually China related, that knocks it down.

    I agree Taco Bell breakfast can only be accretive, but TB is one part of a 3-headed monster and the KFC division keeps missing.
    Feb 27, 2015. 09:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Waste Management: Looking For Dividend Growth? Look Elsewhere [View article]
    At 2.9% the payout is close to 70% of earnings. That is pretty high. Of cashflow it is less than 50%, certainly safe, but like the author's title - I wouldn't expect much growth.
    Feb 26, 2015. 02:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fast-food chains could feel aftershock from Wal-Mart announcement [View news story]
    The old Walmart v Costco comparison. Vilify Walmart and champion Costco. Completely different business models. Might as well throw Nordstroms in the mix too, it's still apples to oranges to pears.
    Feb 26, 2015. 12:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Johnson & Johnson Is Slightly Overvalued, Time To Sell This Drug Maker [View article]
    "ulterior motive"? As if an article like this on SA could move JNJ. And why must someone have a position in a stock to go negative.

    Author is correct, as a company, JNJ top line has grown just 15% over 5 years, earnings have been static (zero), and the stock has under-performed the market - hasn't even doubled in 5 years.

    I own it but not bragging about it, will likely hold through this year to evaluate my cap gains against any losses (oil stocks??).
    Jan 22, 2015. 11:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Clorox Ideal Buy For Long-Term Investors [View article]
    Credit to the author, but at this price now -

    PE near 25, dividend under 3%, dividend growth below 5%, 67% payout ratio, ~6% forward earnings growth projected. All metrics well outside of what has made CLX attractive in 10+ years. Company fundamentals show minimal top line and income growth in 5 years, a fair amount of debt and this isn't a good price to buy back shares (imo).

    After 3 years I sold at 97 (never been good at calling tops), would like to see it back in the low 90's.
    Dec 26, 2014. 01:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Kraft Earns Bullish Thesis With Promising Long-Term Performance [View article]
    Author called this one perfectly >$63 this week.

    I agree with the article, but think even 10% price appreciation by YE2015 is a good bet (~$70). The dividend will likely bump 5% mid-2015 and $70 will yield >3%, still at the high end for this group.

    KRFT = biggest holding, also hold PF for the div, growth and possible buy out.
    Dec 20, 2014. 03:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kraft Foods declares $0.55 dividend [View news story]
    I sold GIS a year ago, but keep watching. It continues to miss earnings estimates and the strong US$ will likely hurt them this qtr, but not likely affect KRFT.

    KRFt is my biggest holding and I think price will support a 3% yield (~$70), consistent with the rest of the group.
    Dec 20, 2014. 02:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Kraft Foods CEO to take 'fresh' look at company [View news story]
    yeah, nice!, KRFT is now my biggest holding, all under $47 cost. I thought of it as a safe defensive play with downside protection from the good, solid dividend. I'll hold on for awhile, I think price will be a bumpy ride to a level that will yield ~3%, which is around $70. 3% Yield is consistent with the rest of the group and KRFT is worthy.
    Dec 20, 2014. 02:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Silica, Hi-Crush, Emerge, Carbo crash thanks to OPEC [View news story]
    Probably difficult to impose, but it would be interesting to see how a US bbl tax/duty on ALL imported oil would affect the current oil economy and the US boom. By all, I mean not picking on Saudi Arabia, but also Canada, Mexico, etc receive the same tax rate so as not to single out a country as a "non-ally" (Saudi & Venezuela). Canada and Mexico would hurt most, but Mexico could be compensated by "wink wink" additional aid through other channels. Even a $1/bbl would send a message and support the US move to dependency.
    Dec 6, 2014. 12:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • CDK Global: A Spin-Off Worth Avoiding [View article]
    I'm with you, sold 1/2 this week. As much as I thought it was a bargain at 26, it's a little ahead of itself now (IMO). Hate taking the short term gains though.
    Nov 14, 2014. 09:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CDK Global: A Spin-Off Worth Avoiding [View article]
    I might agree with the author for the longer term - 3-5 years, but for the next year I am holding the spin-off shares and have purchased a few more based on less analytical reasons: 1. they hit the market just prior to a sharp decline, 2. many new shareholders (incl funds) promptly sold their odd-lot shares, 3. ADP generally and occasionally incubates efficient, profitable companies, 4. They are likely to announce a div (~2%) soon, 5. typical of a new spin, the newly empowered management is prime to succeed for the near term.

    It has already run up 25%, so I am only a hold here at least for the next 12 months, then we'll see.
    Oct 28, 2014. 04:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Clorox Is Slowly Going Private [View article]
    Tax consequences can be a reason for not selling. I'm 4 years long, ave basis in low 60's. Relatively poor performance for me and I also agree clearly overvalued, so I sold ITM Jan calls likely to get me out next year expecting it to be a better year to take gains.

    An Icahn or similar event could occur to drive higher, but I see CLX more likely to go down than up at this time (but I'm often wrong).
    Oct 19, 2014. 02:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
155 Comments
56 Likes