rolfnorfolk

Cracks in the Wall Street Ice - Bull Run Coming To an End?

Well, you're right that timing is unpredictable, which is all the more reason to err on the side of caution. But some kind of prdiction is possible, I think: before I was in the industry I asked my broker to liquidate my investment with him in summer of 1987; I spoke and wrote to clients suggesting switching to cash pro tempore before the Far East debacle in 1997 and switched my wife's pension to cash at the same time; and warned another client to do so with his pension fund in 1999 (he listened, thank goodness). You can't get it exactly right, and who would have guessed that the Federal Reserve would throw so much wood on the fire after 2001? The wood's hot now. If you don't believe Michael Panzner, try Peter Schiff and Richard Duncan - the situation is an accident waiting to happen.

Cracks in the Wall Street Ice - Bull Run Coming To an End?

I think Michael is right. We've been at this stage before - a determinedly happy song bawled over a sad tune. According to investment managers, it's always a good time to give them more funds. Apart from the noble Buffett, when do they tell you to sell? Before the dot com crash, we had an upbeat presentation from a leading British fund management outfit, explaining that the tech boom was soon to be followed by a super-boom. We hadn't seen nuthin' yet. It was at this point that I began to suspect that the function of broker reps is to repair the cashing-out by their existing, smarter clients with new money from suckers, with the assistance of naive personal financial advisers.

I have launched a new site specifically to promote the views of bears like Mr Panzner, so that my clients and the investing public generally can have fair warning to reconsider their attitude to risk. I've called it "Bearwatch" and you'll find it at theylaughedatnoah.blog...