Big Bear Lake Hostel

Case-Shiller Still Predicts Massive 45% Fall from Today’s Values

I agree. Instead of predicting a huge home price drop. You could predict a devaluation of the dollar to make the inflated house prices make sense.

Fixed rate mortgage on an actual commodity is good as gold!
Remember when a loaf of bread was 5 cents?

On Nov 26 11:53 PM Michael David White wrote:

> I believe the numbers represented in the chart are inflation-adjusted.
> If the currency devalues, then a higher nominal price still captures
> the fall in value. Thanks for your note. mdw

The Truth Behind the U.S Government's Stealth Stimulus Plan

I searched this page for "unemployment" and there is not one occurrence. Have you accounted for the fact that many of the people that stop paying there mortgage do so because they are now unemployed? Therefore they aren't saving money or spending it somewhere else in the economy. Instead they are staying in their homes instead of being out on the street and/or needing some other kind of government assistance.

While it may not be 'fair' to let people stay in a house they aren't paying on, it may be the lesser of two bad situations.

And Bernanke Didn't Think Unemployment Would Reach 10%

This article compares what we have done (stimulus, govt spending) to an unknown alternative. We will never know what would happen if we didn't try to use big govt spending to slow the downward spiral.

Inefficient gov't distribution of stimulus is wasteful. Too bad they didn't give people more directly.

Sprint's New 'Unlimited Everything' Plan

No bad,
I have unlimited T-Mobile minutes, but with added SMS, and T-mobile web, it comes to exactly $70/month. But sprint has better service locally. I'd switch. I mostly call cell phones anyway.

More on Foreclosures: Real Estate Recovery Unlikely for Now

Does anyone have stats on Sub-Prime ARM resets / delinquent payments?
Could it be that Subprime is less a problem than expected because ARM resets actually lowered some people's monthly mortgage payment?

The Connection Between Subprime and Wildfires

I don't see the connection.

Most fires are in areas of foothills and mountains. Most tract housing is in the flatlands (less risk of fire).

If you actually had some data, insurance statistics, or ANYTHING to support this thesis I might not consider my reading this article a waste of time.

Housing: No Mood for a Recovery

''Fannie Mae has expanded home ownership for millions of families in the 1990's by reducing down payment requirements,'' said Franklin D. Raines, Fannie Mae's chairman and chief executive officer. ''Yet there remain too many borrowers whose credit is just a notch below what our underwriting has required who have been relegated to paying significantly higher mortgage rates in the so-called subprime market.''

www.nytimes.com/1999/0...

Housing: No Mood for a Recovery

Didn't the policy of promoting home ownership and easing of lending standards start under Clinton?

Anecdotal evidence of housing consolidation:
I have 1 college friend, recently unemployed, moving in to rent a room next month for $400 (down from $1300 apartment) and another friend moving into another room for $500 a month (down from renting a $1200 house).

The NYT Will Stay Free

I won't read NYTIMES.com if they charge for it.
I'll just switch to consuming more NPR and PRI content.

Shop at Costco, Invest in Safeway

Most small business owners pay $100 membership fee annually but its recovered by 2% costco rebate and buying gasoline there with AMEX rebate card saves 3-5% on cheapest gas in town. So it doesn't go straight to their profits.


On Jul 08 11:22 AM psonava wrote:

> I may have missed it but did you calculate in the fact that anyone
> that shops at Costco pays an annual membership fee that goes straight
> to their profit margin?

Applying 'Googlenomics' to Autos, Housing to Set a Price Floor

Adwords style auctions don't apply to housing because adwords auctions sell the same ads over and over again. Each house is different. Also adwords users can measure a return on investment (sale conversions) to help determine how much to bid.

Of course auctioning off excess inventory is a good move. Its the free market at work. Instead banks are holding on to foreclosed houses in hopes the housing market won't get completely flooded. This just means housing will have an artificial floor for a longer period of time.

Burger King: Have It Your Way

Burger King #3316
[phone]
41383 Big Bear Blvd
Big Bear Lake, CA 92315

Our local BK was closed and boarded up last month like a condemned property.

Revisiting Migratory Stimulus

Uneducated and educated people both need a place to live and work and will buy/rent according to their means. The housing market can accommodate high earners and low earners. Immigration causes excess housing to be used up.
(immigration helps housing market)

Japan's population peaked in 2006.
www.indexmundi.com/g/g...
Japan's GDP growth has been slowing since about the same time.
www.indexmundi.com/g/g...
If everyone leaves a town its a ghost town and can't function.
If a city grows, its more efficient, provides a bigger market for goods and services, attracts business, etc.
(immigration raises GDP)

It seems like a no-brainer to me that allowing immigration benefits growth. In fact, the more dense a city is, the more efficient it works.
(immigration helps GDP)

An economy needs low skilled workers and mind workers. I don't think its proven that low skilled workers cost more than they produce in the long run. If we send all illegal/low skilled workers out of California the massive job of farm labor (fruit vegetable picking) would be without workers and collapse. I don't think I would pick fruit all year if you paid me $100,000.00/ year.
Illegals out, world food prices up! Inflation is a drag on economy.
Illegals in, society pays more for social services.

I haven't seen a comprehension study of the costs vs. productive benefits of low skilled labor. But if China is a similar model with plentiful low skill labor and rising population and Japan is a model of shortage of low skilled labor and declining population, I think everyone would want 10% annual growth vs. stagnant economy. (immigrants in, GDP up)

I think the only real argument against immigration is that some Americans don't like living next to people with different cultures.

Everyone should watch this talk:
www.ted.com/index.php/...

and realize that bringing a billion new knowledge workers online in the next 50-100 years and 2 billion new middle class world citizens will increase productivity and markets exponentially.

I'm all in!
Let as many people into California as we can get!

California is financially bankrupt because it provides more services than the tax rolls can support. This will have to be changed or the govt. shut down sporadically. Collective bargaining of govt. workers creates artificially high costs for state services.

Let the invisible hand free the economy!
Abolish tenure! Pay teachers more!

I would have become a teacher if I could have made 100K directly after college! Where would we be today if graduates of the last 15 year had been chasing teaching jobs instead of wall street jobs?

Which world would you like to live in?
One where the best and brightest are drawn by greed to Wall St. (which is needed for efficient investment of capital, but which sucked said capital out of the system instead!).
Or a world where best and brightest compete for high paying teaching jobs to inspire the next generation and shitty teachers get fired!

Look at what education has done for India!

Something Huge Is Happening with Amazon

The economics of the Kindle may only work for college students:
bits.blogs.nytimes.com...

For $400 the only benefit of the kindle is size and screen that you can read in the sun?!

I'll invest that towards a new laptop that is a million times more useful, a tad bigger, and I can watch HDTV on!

Skype and Telecom Carrier Denial

Pressure from VOIP and competitors is driving down prices of mobile operators. Tmobile is now offering unlimited calling to its long term customers for $49.99/month. And they offer phones that transfer calls from cell tower to VOIP when you get to your home WIFI network. It won't take long for mobile carriers to implement their own VOIP system over the cell towers. Prices will keep coming down.