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Jion

Jion
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  • Report: Greece makes IMF loan repayment [View news story]
    Greece paid IMF, rolled the T-Bills, received exactly the emergency cash they asked for from ECB.
    Until today everything goes ok, despite what the media have provided.
    Apr 10, 2015. 04:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Petroamerica Oil - I've Seen Cheaper [View article]
    1. As proven above, EV/EBITDA is the most significant key ratio used by the industry participants either you want to ignore it or not. If it does not help your strategy is completely understandable.

    2. PTA's RLI is 4.1 years. This is not tomorrow. Keep also in mind that the company has almost 500,000 net acres, a lot of cash, has made a new oil discovery in a new Block (Langur) and is debt free. Therefore, it has all it needs to increase further its reserves.

    3. All the peers you mention above have much higher EV/2015 EBITDA, EV/Production and Net Debt/2015 EBITDA ratios than PTA although you gloss it over.

    4. I replied to you about TRIN. TRIN was unable to show profits even when Brent was at $100 in H1 2014. This should tell you a lot about the company's efficiency. Also, I posted TRIN's latest report too.

    Bottom line: it doesn't matter if you or me have invested or have currently a position in PTA or TRIN. It is about the facts and the different view of how someone evaluates such companies.
    So, I don't think that I'm lying or anything else when I provided the facts about key metrics, even if you have chosen to ignore them and use a different method.
    Apr 7, 2015. 01:51 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Petroamerica Oil - I've Seen Cheaper [View article]
    The Prudent Analyst, let me provide some remarks about Petroamerica and about Trinity Exploration, which you have presented also in your previous article:

    1) EV/EBITDA: You can ignore it all the way you want. Nevertheless, this is the primary key metric and the most widely used ratio used by all the funds and institutions, when it comes to evaluating an energy company and any company actually.
    I know this ratio does not help TRIN's EV/EBITDA ratio, but this is how it is...

    Meanwhile, Petroamerica's EV/2015 EBITDA ratio now at C$0.15 is just 1.5 times with Brent at US$60.

    And, to see that this ratio is used by the funds, I quote from Reuters:

    "In August, Apollo's co-founder and Chief Executive Leon Black told investors that energy deals are helping Apollo invest its Fund VIII at an average of 6 times a company's annual earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization, versus a private equity industry average of 9.5 times for all deals."

    The link from Reuters (as of October 2014):

    http://reut.rs/1EqV1eS

    See also what the analysts from Morningstar said recently for the acquisition of ATHL by ECA:

    "On a multiple basis, they’re paying something like 15 times EBITDA for Athlon,” said David Meats, an energy analyst with Morningstar. “That’s in the higher end of the range for Permian E&Ps but it’s not out of the range.”

    In other words, they used the same EV/EBITDA ratio to determine ATHL's valuation and ECA's offer. This is the link:

    http://bit.ly/1DZH9KF

    2) EV/Reserves is a backward looking ratio, because it refers to the company's situation some months before today. The energy producers' reserves figures are dated as of the December of the previous year.

    3) To be more objective, you should also have included in your article another key metric, EV/Production but I know that this does not help TRIN's EV/Production either.

    4) You also omitted to include in your article the fact that PTA is a Debt-Free company, pro forma the payment of the CAD notes in April 2015. The Debt-Free companies have to trade at a premium, as you know.
    FYI, most energy companies are loaded with a ton of debt.

    TRIN is one of them. TRIN has a significant amount of Net Debt, a high Net Debt to EBITDA ratio, and was losing money even in H1 2014 when Brent was at $100. See below:

    http://bit.ly/1DZH9KL trinity/wp-content/upl... 2014/09/2014-Interim-R... 30th-September-2014.pdf

    So, with all due respect: if this is your under-cover attempt to push TRIN (Trinity Exploration) that you presented in your previous article, that's fine with me but you still have to be objective and present all the key information used by the energy sector and the industry participants.

    The same applies to President Energy (PPC.L) that you include in your article and has also very high EV/EBITDA and EV/Production key metrics. You have wrote a bullish article about it too as I see.
    Apr 7, 2015. 11:01 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seven Generations Energy: A Detailed Analysis Of The Days To Come [View article]
    Value Digger, see another article from Seeking Alpha about 7G. The author agrees with your bearish opinion, due to the company's debt and significant funding gap both in 2015 and 2016:

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Apr 7, 2015. 10:21 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trinity Exploration - Extremely Cheap E&P, But Not Without Its Risks [View article]
    The Prudent Analyst,

    Please let me disagree with you. EV/EBITDA is the primary key metric when it comes to evaluating an energy company and/or making an acquisition offer...
    Looking forward to read your next article.
    Apr 6, 2015. 12:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Trinity Exploration - Extremely Cheap E&P, But Not Without Its Risks [View article]
    I believe the numbers in your article must be corrected when it comes to Petroamerica Oil (PTA.V) and its multiples.

    -PTA's market cap at the current price of C$0.14 is C$122 million which translates into US$96 million.

    Including the negative Net Debt of US$22 million, PTA's EV currently is US$74 million.
    Based on the latest reserves report, PTA has 8.1 MMboe of 2P Reserves (98% oil).

    This results in US$9.1/boe of 2P reserves (74/8.1).

    Plus, PTA's current production is 5,500 boepd. See presentation. Therefore, it trades at US$13,400/boepd (74/5,500).

    -Also, keep in mind another key metric, EV/EBITDA.

    PTA has EV/2015 EBITDA at 1.5 times assuming that Brent stays at US$60 for the entire 2015.
    Trading at only 1.5 times the EBITDA is an absurdly low valuation, no matter how you slice it.

    -Also, keep in mind that PTA is a Net Debt free company. Actually, PTA has Negative Net Debt which should give it a premium compared to many international peers...
    Apr 6, 2015. 10:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece presents more detailed bailout plan [View news story]
    Not only more detailed but with more measures included. I think the SYRIZA government is forced to compromise and achieve a deal soon. It seems that the interior opposition in the party has accepted prime ministers position, so there will be a deal in April.
    Apr 2, 2015. 04:15 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Civeo: A Relatively Unpopular Company That I Am Adding To My Portfolio [View article]
    Dan, thanks for the good article. I think the main problems with CVEO are two. First, it has exposure to coal in Australia and few investors are bullish on coal. Second, CVEO still has high debt ratios.

    For reference, have you seen CERF Incorporated? CERF Incorporated trades on Toronto under CFL.V ticker. It is in the same sector like CVEO providing high quality modular accommodations in the energy sector. But, it has also a waste management division. Both divisions have robust activity, and CFL.V has a very strong balance sheet with Net debt to Adjusted EBITDA ratio at just 1 times.
    Apr 2, 2015. 04:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seven Generations Energy: A Detailed Analysis Of The Days To Come [View article]
    Also, according to Bloomberg: "Eleven out of fourteen analysts covering Seven Generations have a 'buy' rating on the stock".
    Did you notice it?
    Apr 1, 2015. 12:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seven Generations Energy: A Detailed Analysis Of The Days To Come [View article]
    Value Digger,

    Jim Doak agrees with you. He is the co-founder of Sui Generis Investment Partners and he advises taking a short position in the Calgary-based oil and gas outfit for the same reasons you note above. See the article:

    http://bit.ly/1C7SkuR
    Apr 1, 2015. 10:09 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed Vice Chair Fischer's Retreat And GLD [View article]
    Thank you, a complete analysis but still comprehensible for someone who is far for being an expert in precious metals.
    Mar 26, 2015. 04:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Will Be No Oil Storage Crisis In 2015 [View article]
    I agree with you and with the author Force Majeure. Lastly more SA contributors think the same too. Check also this article about the oil price that talks about the recent manipulation of the oil price by the popular news media:

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Mar 26, 2015. 04:42 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing In High Dividend Yield Stocks: A Sucker Bet? [View article]
    Alpha Architect,


    I liked your article but I think you cannot make a rule. I own two MLPs, JPEP and NSLP.

    Both JPEP and NSLP currently give high dividends (higher than 10%) while carrying the lowest leverage ratios in their industry (Midstream and Integrated MLPs).

    Also, both JPEP and NSLP have strong growth yoy and thanks to the strength of their balance sheets, they will make acquisitions in 2015 too.
    Mar 25, 2015. 09:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Although Quicksilver Resources And Forest Oil Are On A Razor's Edge, They Aren't Undervalued At The Current Levels [View article]
    VD, Quicksilver filed Chapter 11 a month after your article...
    Mar 22, 2015. 10:52 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Petroamerica Oil: The Strong Buy Rating Has Become Even Stronger [View article]
    In this case I modestly suggest to everyone to think twice before he talks about any other's credit like you did about mine, especially when I haven't made the same infelicity and talked firstly about yours, or anyone's else.
    Mar 21, 2015. 01:54 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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