Another "Weege Board" technician. Help, help two imaginary lines crossed. We are all going down. Stop. Fundamentals is where it is really at in the long term. In the big picture. Technicians imafinary lines work in the short term only because so many believe they will and the act accordingly to make them a self fullfilling profiicy. In realality they are just another "Weege Board".
A little more on Deutsche/Apple: The firm notes Japanese analyst Yasuo Nakane has long been cautious about FQ2 (March quarter) iPhone builds, and thinks the consensus for FQ2 iPhone sales has fallen to around 37M. The U.S. team thinks Nakane's estimates (45M builds in FQ1, 28M-30M in FQ2) implies upside to his FQ1 sales forecast, and downside to his FQ2 forecast. Meanwhile, his forecast for 17M-19M FQ2 iPad builds implies upside to an FQ2 forecast for sales of 15M. [View news story]
Just some more Weege Board predictions. It amazes me how some of these so called analysts come up with their predictions with few or no real facts. The big surprise is that rarely when they are wrong do they apologize and explain why they were wrong. They just go ahead and do the same dumb things again. However, the bigger surprise is that people keep paying them the big bucks.
Poor article based on incomplete data. Trying to draw sales comparison between iPad and mini based on availability is false logic. Unless you know the manufacture plan and rate of completion for each product you have no way of knowing sales. All you really know is that Apple has done an apparently good job of matching production and sales of the iPad and not as good job with the mini. However, that does not tell you the sales of either unless you know the production plan. Does the author? Or is he just blowing smoke?
Apple - Fire Sale Ends December 31? [View article]
They best thing Apple could do to cut down on this wild volitility is to split the stock so true Apple users and lovers could afford a meaningful amount of shares. A ten for one split would be magical. Then a typical Apple user could buy 100 shares. They would never sell as they love Apple. That could take the control of the stock out of the hedge Funds who play various games and are subject to all the wild and mostly unconfirmed rumors. Apple lovers would just want to own a piece of Apple. The stock would be a cult thing to own as many of the iProducts have become.
Citi downgrade or not, it's relief rally time for many (though not all) Apple suppliers: the group was clobbered on Thursday and Friday as negative supply chain/order data came in. CRUS +4.3%. BRCM +1.4%. QCOM +2.4%. AVGO +1.5%. SWKS +3%. [View news story]
Let me get this straight. Apple increased orders for the current quarter from suppliers 45-50%. From that high number they cut orders for the post-christmas quarter 20%. That leaves a gain of some 30%. That is supposed to be bad news? I will take a 30% revenue growth any day.
More on UBS/Apple: Milunovich's iPad forecasts for FQ2-FQ4 are falling by 2M/quarter, and his FY13 EPS forecast to $47 from $51.50. If this gloomier assessment pans out, is consumer demand for larger smartphone displays (especially outside the U.S.) partly responsible? And if so, will Apple be driven to finally offer an iPhone with a ~4.5" display? Apple is back to trading at a paltry 7x FY13E EPS, and component suppliers are off again: QCOM -4.6%. CRUS -5.1%. TQNT -3.1%. SWKS -4.7%. AVGO -4.4%. BRCM -3%. OVTI -1.2%. (Wozniak) [View news story]
I have checked with my private sources and have come to a strikingly different forecast. I have found suppliers have had their orders increased for both the iPad and the iPhone parts. I do not know what Milunovich is basing his projections on, but I would suggest he check his sources. I believe he is going to "eat a lot of crow" when the actual results come out.
Apple (AAPL) is taking it on the chin again this morning as chatter about weak iPhone 5 demand in China, and UBS taking its price target on the stock down to $700 from $780 has the shares off 2.2% premarket. [View news story]
Chatter is based on false reports. That seems to be very popular now. Two weeks ago similar negative rumor that Apple suppliers had decreasing orders. A week later verified report that Apple suppliers had an increase of some 20% in orders. Aaple is the stock many love to hate. Partly, It is their own fault because they operate in such a secrete manner, which Wall Street hates.
The Rich Will Not Abandon Dividend Stocks [View article]
As a retired high income individual, I must admit I take a different view. Taxation of dividends will definitely affect my mix of investments. I will considerably increase my investments in tax exempt and decrease my exposure to taxable dividends. Presently dividends are about 50% of my income. I can see that easily dropping to 20% or less. If I need additional cash flow it will come from capital gains.
Apple (AAPL) -1.6% premarket, adding to a 6.4% Wednesday drop that seems to be related to higher margin requirements, though a Digitimes column and even IDC's tablet share forecast have been named as possible reasons. TA believers note shares are nearing a "death cross" - the point where the 50-day moving average drops below the 200-day average. A Birinyi analyst observes Apple has historically struggled in the month following a cross, but outperformed in the following 3 months. Shares are back to trading around 8.4x FY13E EPS exc. cash. [View news story]
Analyst complain that Apple is not inventing anything new now that Jobs passed. Apple is not a inventing company and never has been. They did not invent the PC (iMac); or the lap top (MacBook); or the MP3 player (iPod); or the smart phone(iPhone) or the tablet (iPad). They just copied inventions others made and improved on them to make them better, much better. That has not changed. They know how to make a good idea much better. That is there nich and no one does it as well.
Apple (AAPL) -1.6% premarket, adding to a 6.4% Wednesday drop that seems to be related to higher margin requirements, though a Digitimes column and even IDC's tablet share forecast have been named as possible reasons. TA believers note shares are nearing a "death cross" - the point where the 50-day moving average drops below the 200-day average. A Birinyi analyst observes Apple has historically struggled in the month following a cross, but outperformed in the following 3 months. Shares are back to trading around 8.4x FY13E EPS exc. cash. [View news story]
Shares trading at a lower p/e than Cisco. Is that not dumb.
Apple Drops 6.4% Due To Volatility And Uncertainty: The iPad Mini Is Out, Now What? [View article]
Digitmes did not report the orders were down. They reported there were rumors the orders were down. There was no follow up to substantiate the rumors as true.
Many U.S. firms are cash rich abroad but cash poor at home, and the SEC worries they aren’t presenting investors with an honest appraisal of their liquidity. “That doesn’t mean they could suddenly run out of money to pay their bills," WSJ's Kate Linebaugh writes. "But it does mean there could be unseen limits on their ability to pay dividends and buy back shares." [View news story]
The author does not follow the news. When corporations need cash and do not want to bring back overseas cash because of taxes, they just float a bond at historic low rates. The interest is a lot cheaper than the taxes if they bring back cash from overseas. They are just responding to our out of date tax policy.
Grand Bargain: Are Fiscal Spending Cuts And Revenue Increases Both Needed? Part 1 [View article]
The author left out a major point. Why is revenue lower and will it self correct? I think the major reason there is less tax revenue is because of lower capital gains realized and lower corporate tax revenue. Both are significantly reduced because of massive accumulated losses from the recession being used to reduce current tax liabilities. These losses are "burning off" and will have a less and less impact going forward and historical tax-revenue levels should return without raising rates.
A report ordered by Congress formally concludes that the FDA should limit the amount of salt in restaurants and package foods to lower the risk of heart disease. Sources indicate that the report is the jumpstart legislators need in order to initiate a comprehensive phase-down of the use of salt in the $600B food industry. [View news story]
As a dietitian once told me, cooking with salt and adding later gives you completely different taste experiences. It tastes much better when it is cooked with salt as the salt penetrates the food. Added later it just sits on top. Each bite tastes different.
Is There An Apple Disconnect? [View article]
A little more on Deutsche/Apple: The firm notes Japanese analyst Yasuo Nakane has long been cautious about FQ2 (March quarter) iPhone builds, and thinks the consensus for FQ2 iPhone sales has fallen to around 37M. The U.S. team thinks Nakane's estimates (45M builds in FQ1, 28M-30M in FQ2) implies upside to his FQ1 sales forecast, and downside to his FQ2 forecast. Meanwhile, his forecast for 17M-19M FQ2 iPad builds implies upside to an FQ2 forecast for sales of 15M. [View news story]
Apple: Great Artists Steal [View article]
Apple - Fire Sale Ends December 31? [View article]
Citi downgrade or not, it's relief rally time for many (though not all) Apple suppliers: the group was clobbered on Thursday and Friday as negative supply chain/order data came in. CRUS +4.3%. BRCM +1.4%. QCOM +2.4%. AVGO +1.5%. SWKS +3%. [View news story]
More on UBS/Apple: Milunovich's iPad forecasts for FQ2-FQ4 are falling by 2M/quarter, and his FY13 EPS forecast to $47 from $51.50. If this gloomier assessment pans out, is consumer demand for larger smartphone displays (especially outside the U.S.) partly responsible? And if so, will Apple be driven to finally offer an iPhone with a ~4.5" display? Apple is back to trading at a paltry 7x FY13E EPS, and component suppliers are off again: QCOM -4.6%. CRUS -5.1%. TQNT -3.1%. SWKS -4.7%. AVGO -4.4%. BRCM -3%. OVTI -1.2%. (Wozniak) [View news story]
Apple (AAPL) is taking it on the chin again this morning as chatter about weak iPhone 5 demand in China, and UBS taking its price target on the stock down to $700 from $780 has the shares off 2.2% premarket. [View news story]
The Rich Will Not Abandon Dividend Stocks [View article]
Apple (AAPL) -1.6% premarket, adding to a 6.4% Wednesday drop that seems to be related to higher margin requirements, though a Digitimes column and even IDC's tablet share forecast have been named as possible reasons. TA believers note shares are nearing a "death cross" - the point where the 50-day moving average drops below the 200-day average. A Birinyi analyst observes Apple has historically struggled in the month following a cross, but outperformed in the following 3 months. Shares are back to trading around 8.4x FY13E EPS exc. cash. [View news story]
Apple (AAPL) -1.6% premarket, adding to a 6.4% Wednesday drop that seems to be related to higher margin requirements, though a Digitimes column and even IDC's tablet share forecast have been named as possible reasons. TA believers note shares are nearing a "death cross" - the point where the 50-day moving average drops below the 200-day average. A Birinyi analyst observes Apple has historically struggled in the month following a cross, but outperformed in the following 3 months. Shares are back to trading around 8.4x FY13E EPS exc. cash. [View news story]
Apple Drops 6.4% Due To Volatility And Uncertainty: The iPad Mini Is Out, Now What? [View article]
Many U.S. firms are cash rich abroad but cash poor at home, and the SEC worries they aren’t presenting investors with an honest appraisal of their liquidity. “That doesn’t mean they could suddenly run out of money to pay their bills," WSJ's Kate Linebaugh writes. "But it does mean there could be unseen limits on their ability to pay dividends and buy back shares." [View news story]
Grand Bargain: Are Fiscal Spending Cuts And Revenue Increases Both Needed? Part 1 [View article]
A Fresh Look At Apple [View article]
A report ordered by Congress formally concludes that the FDA should limit the amount of salt in restaurants and package foods to lower the risk of heart disease. Sources indicate that the report is the jumpstart legislators need in order to initiate a comprehensive phase-down of the use of salt in the $600B food industry. [View news story]