gokou3

Kick Consumers While They're Down: Oil and Gasoline Diverge

Could contango on oil futures play a role in USO underperformance?

Berkshire Valuation Questionable as Business Fails Guidance Tests

Ahh... Rakesh you are not implying that BRK may lose the $48B notional value of these contracts are you? Let's see... BRK collected about $5B in premiums, and the durations of these contracts are 10+ years. Assuming 0% growth of this premium, the stock index would have to drop 10% cumulatively over the next 10 years before BRK would lose a cent. Of course you have to take the accounting roller coaster ride in the meantime, but from your post I think that's too much.

Microsoft: Office to Embrace the Web; One Less Profit Center?

"For most users this will be more than enough...."

Dun think so!

An End to Efficient Market Theory

"the collapse of Fannie Mae (FNM), investment banks, AIG (AIG), etc — have been staring everyone in the face for months if not years"

I thought Capital Research has been holding piles of stocks of these companies?

Loss of Clarity on Chesapeake's Peak

simpkins, i agree with u, especially after reading this line:

"for now I will continue to hold what is left of my position, but look to either add or sell in the low 50s as the stock tries to find support in this area"

Did he mean using a "long straddle" option strategy? I doubt it..

Has Starbucks Bottomed? Not by a Long Shot

Reducing opening hours is not a focusing/efficiency strategy; it's a cut-loss. If you think in terms of net income per employee, wouldn't this mean further profit erosion?

Why Kass Is Wrong About Berkshire Hathaway

If Kass thinks there's a problem with the derivative portfolio, then Kass should long some European long-term index puts, so he would be the counter-party of BRK.

HSBC's Net Inflated by One-Time Gains

I think the one-off gains is more in the range of $3-$5B. On the other hand, one can consider subprime losses as one-off losses too (albeit one that will go on for a couple more years)

Profit from Visa - the Biggest IPO in U.S. History

You have no discussion of V's valuation. How can you conclude "you can't lose"? Btw, you must not have read the IPO prospectus: it says explicitly it will pay a dividend, not maybe.

How International Finance Affects Emerging Markets

"How can banks lose money when the spread is 3% of all Chinese saving in the banks?"

A: Well... when the borrowers cannot pay back?

The Forever Stamp: The Next Great Investment Opportunity?

Why stop at 1 day.... you can annualize the return based on the time between the business close of the USPS office and the opening on the next day...

The Ball Is Now In Microsoft's Court

Thomas, I'd really love to see how you determine the 90% figure.. btw, even if the deal closes at $50B it's only about 2 years of MSFT EBIT.

Buy ETFs, Avoid Mutual Funds

The 1.3% is slightly misleading IMO. We don't need a mutual fund that beats the market EVERY YEAR for x years. All we need is a fund that beats the market ON AVERAGE over long-term. The chance of finding latter is much higher than 1.3%, but is still exceedingly small (~20% from some articles I read).

Sears Holdings' True Value

Well, I would argue that there's not much profit to make from your short. Let's apply discount factors to the 4 components of values based on the negativity of your comments: 50% on retail, 80% on RE, 80% on brand, and 50% on EL. I get
240*(0.5*0.24+0.8*0.45... The discount factors are of course arbitrary (perhaps you can spell out what d.f. you think are appropriate), but the $158 estimate is 76% higher than its current PPS of $90. In fact, my discounted RE value is $86.4 (i.e. 240*.8*.45) which is almost equal to its PPS.

American Express Drops a Bomb on Consumer Spending

There are zero-annual-fee AMEX cards too. With cash rebates.