globalview99's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/81982/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/175600-dubai-s-debt-woes-could-further-unhinge-u-s-commercial-real-estate-sector?source=feed#comment-782315 782315
But like Retail (think Walmart, Target, specialty fashion shops) , CRE has it's prime operators (Boston Properties, et al) whose portfolios are top draw with manageable debt levels who wwill get stressed out but will not break. Others who bought cookie cutter properties at high prices and over-leveraged will be thrown to the proverbial wolves.

To what extent will we see sovereign default and CRE defaults by big property owners remains to be seen. But this is not 1989-92 redux. The economy then was in fundamentally good shape, just lost momentum due to Bush 41's (read my lips: no new taxes) tax increase. This time will be different, but how different is anyone's guess. Stay tuned.]]> Mon, 30 Nov 2009 04:34:29 -0500
But like Retail (think Walmart, Target, specialty fashion shops) , CRE has it's prime operators (Boston Properties, et al) whose portfolios are top draw with manageable debt levels who wwill get stressed out but will not break. Others who bought cookie cutter properties at high prices and over-leveraged will be thrown to the proverbial wolves.

To what extent will we see sovereign default and CRE defaults by big property owners remains to be seen. But this is not 1989-92 redux. The economy then was in fundamentally good shape, just lost momentum due to Bush 41's (read my lips: no new taxes) tax increase. This time will be different, but how different is anyone's guess. Stay tuned.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/165538-falling-dollar-finally-front-page-news?source=feed#comment-710180 710180
This was the strategy of the Bush and Obama administrations b/c it served the same goal, to create more jobs for Americans. In a free trade world, a governement can not throw up protective tariffs without bringing the whole global trade system down. So they use monetary policy to make their goods and services cheaper.

This works except for the Chinese who peg their currency to the USD. So for the foreign governments, their counter strategy must be to buy dollars to make the USD more expensive or at least counter the effects of the forces driving dollar down. Without zero interest rate and QE, we would have massive deflation. Even with it, there will be deflation, but nothing like the 1930's.]]> Fri, 09 Oct 2009 09:19:18 -0400
This was the strategy of the Bush and Obama administrations b/c it served the same goal, to create more jobs for Americans. In a free trade world, a governement can not throw up protective tariffs without bringing the whole global trade system down. So they use monetary policy to make their goods and services cheaper.

This works except for the Chinese who peg their currency to the USD. So for the foreign governments, their counter strategy must be to buy dollars to make the USD more expensive or at least counter the effects of the forces driving dollar down. Without zero interest rate and QE, we would have massive deflation. Even with it, there will be deflation, but nothing like the 1930's.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/156470-has-the-dollar-hit-a-major-bottom?source=feed#comment-691787 691787 Sat, 26 Sep 2009 06:47:07 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/163037-dollar-nearing-a-critical-level?source=feed#comment-690567 690567
At the risk of using the discredited cliche "this time is different", this time is different! The reason that it is different is because the lion's share of the easy money is not going into the economy in the sense of buying goods and services and generating the so-called multiplier effect, but rather a large share of it is being hoarded by banks to rebuld their balance sheets, plus consumers are using it to pay down debt including mortgages they can't afford while others are just putting it in savings accounts. So banks are the ultimate recipients either directly or indirectly of a large share of the easy money and not the economy.

Of couse, some money is going into the economy but not enough to generate solid growth in money supply which is a precondition to inflation. So what is happening is either stagflation or deflation, only time will tell.]]> Fri, 25 Sep 2009 08:59:46 -0400
At the risk of using the discredited cliche "this time is different", this time is different! The reason that it is different is because the lion's share of the easy money is not going into the economy in the sense of buying goods and services and generating the so-called multiplier effect, but rather a large share of it is being hoarded by banks to rebuld their balance sheets, plus consumers are using it to pay down debt including mortgages they can't afford while others are just putting it in savings accounts. So banks are the ultimate recipients either directly or indirectly of a large share of the easy money and not the economy.

Of couse, some money is going into the economy but not enough to generate solid growth in money supply which is a precondition to inflation. So what is happening is either stagflation or deflation, only time will tell.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161265-economic-recovery-determining-the-undeterminable?source=feed#comment-677104 677104
Right now the real economy is in the pits trying to stay afloat and not get pulled under by the financial economy which is on life support. But the market (which is still dominated by financial economy types) is surging on the basis of falsely perceived economic recovery based on artificial stumuli that is not sustainable. This is round 1; we'll see who wins.

If I'm right, the reckoning which will be a multi-year process will transfer an enormous amount of wealth from the financial economy traders to the real economy traders. The real economy traders will be the next economy's investors capitalizing a sustainable 21st Century Economy. This is economic democracy in action.]]> Tue, 15 Sep 2009 08:36:29 -0400
Right now the real economy is in the pits trying to stay afloat and not get pulled under by the financial economy which is on life support. But the market (which is still dominated by financial economy types) is surging on the basis of falsely perceived economic recovery based on artificial stumuli that is not sustainable. This is round 1; we'll see who wins.

If I'm right, the reckoning which will be a multi-year process will transfer an enormous amount of wealth from the financial economy traders to the real economy traders. The real economy traders will be the next economy's investors capitalizing a sustainable 21st Century Economy. This is economic democracy in action.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161130-how-low-can-the-dollar-go?source=feed#comment-675375 675375
But that's not going to happen because the Japanese CB as well as other export-driven economies CB's (Germany, China, and other Asean Group exporters) upon looking over the precipice of continued falling exports (to the US) and unacceptable high unemployment, will intervene and buy up Treasury notes (thereby increasing exchange rates and strenghtening the USD) just to raise the buying power of US consumers which will raise their level of exports and keep people employed. It's a matter of politics and survival; and you can bet on it.

Just remember, the US consumer generates some 16% of global trade; if the Dollar remains weak and US consumers cut back on their buying (which has already happened) the economies of nations that export to the US are likewise affected. So given the choice of sitting on USD reserves and watching their employment rolls dramatically fall and pople on the streets demanding jobs and bailouts to pay mortgages, foreign governements will buy up US T Bills at low rates to keep the economy humming.

Conversely, the US government is delighted with a weak dollar as a natural barrier for US consumers to buy US goods rather than foreign goods. So the US is really in the catbird seat with a win win scenario going forward. ]]> Mon, 14 Sep 2009 05:38:30 -0400
But that's not going to happen because the Japanese CB as well as other export-driven economies CB's (Germany, China, and other Asean Group exporters) upon looking over the precipice of continued falling exports (to the US) and unacceptable high unemployment, will intervene and buy up Treasury notes (thereby increasing exchange rates and strenghtening the USD) just to raise the buying power of US consumers which will raise their level of exports and keep people employed. It's a matter of politics and survival; and you can bet on it.

Just remember, the US consumer generates some 16% of global trade; if the Dollar remains weak and US consumers cut back on their buying (which has already happened) the economies of nations that export to the US are likewise affected. So given the choice of sitting on USD reserves and watching their employment rolls dramatically fall and pople on the streets demanding jobs and bailouts to pay mortgages, foreign governements will buy up US T Bills at low rates to keep the economy humming.

Conversely, the US government is delighted with a weak dollar as a natural barrier for US consumers to buy US goods rather than foreign goods. So the US is really in the catbird seat with a win win scenario going forward. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123715-are-we-seeing-market-capitulation?source=feed#comment-411130 411130
Like, is stability the goal; or is it liquidity; or is it lending and the housing prices; or is it the banks; or the auto industry bailout.

The big question is: what's the problem. Until the Obama Administration figures that out and attempts to fix it, we're in for a world of hurt. ]]> Tue, 03 Mar 2009 11:07:22 -0500
Like, is stability the goal; or is it liquidity; or is it lending and the housing prices; or is it the banks; or the auto industry bailout.

The big question is: what's the problem. Until the Obama Administration figures that out and attempts to fix it, we're in for a world of hurt. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/122075-three-solar-and-wind-companies-that-still-look-good?source=feed#comment-400993 400993 Tue, 24 Feb 2009 04:12:39 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/120230-why-markets-dissed-the-geithner-plan?source=feed#comment-386674 386674 NPV) rather than market price which the Clearance Bank must either accept or reject within 30 days (to enable due diligence). This gets rid of the Mark to Market rule which is the real deal killer. This NPV approach was originally crafted by Paul McWilliams of Next Inning. If rejected, they can either post a new price or write off. Here's the kicker: the banks have six months to either sell toxic assets or write it down based on NPV. The Clearance bank can either hold the assets until maturity or sell it at market price when the asset regains value. This approach of course assumes that in the long term, the economy and real estate will recover.]]> Fri, 13 Feb 2009 00:45:15 -0500 NPV) rather than market price which the Clearance Bank must either accept or reject within 30 days (to enable due diligence). This gets rid of the Mark to Market rule which is the real deal killer. This NPV approach was originally crafted by Paul McWilliams of Next Inning. If rejected, they can either post a new price or write off. Here's the kicker: the banks have six months to either sell toxic assets or write it down based on NPV. The Clearance bank can either hold the assets until maturity or sell it at market price when the asset regains value. This approach of course assumes that in the long term, the economy and real estate will recover.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97526-the-secret-villain-behind-our-economic-collapse?source=feed#comment-266724 266724
In this case, the experiment was that low income and middle class income people who ordinarily would not have the opportunity to own a home perhaps through risk management (CDS's, etc.) can have that opportunity. For a time it worked because most of the folks who were subprimers paid their mortgage. Then the defaults started growing which were mainly the people who abused the system with multiple homes they couldn't afford and couldn't flip fast enough and the rent would not pay the mortgage.

The experiment was a good one and hopefully we don't throw out the baby with the bathwater. The problem was that greed got the better of the loan originators and the flippers and everyone up the chain to the loan bundlers who pedaled these exotic mortgage instruments on wall st.

The problem now is trying to see how to fix the system. My sense is that although these exotic packages became toxic, it was the fact that there was no institutionalized market for determining the value as distressed as it may be that was the culprit in caiuse log-jams that froze up liquidity. So IMHO, the cure is to create a CDS or similar type Derivative Instrument Exchange specializing in trading these exotic products so the means of valuing them is institututionized and there is always a market regardless if the instruments are in or out of favor.

As a starter, although it's being called a government bailout, in essence what the government is doing in buying up these troubled assets to unclog the system is setting up an exchange mechanism which it is funding as the first buyer. If seen in this light, others perhaps will see that buying these distressed assets at ridiculously cheap prices will be a good investment and a few years down the road can return 100% or more.]]> Sat, 27 Sep 2008 09:19:02 -0400
In this case, the experiment was that low income and middle class income people who ordinarily would not have the opportunity to own a home perhaps through risk management (CDS's, etc.) can have that opportunity. For a time it worked because most of the folks who were subprimers paid their mortgage. Then the defaults started growing which were mainly the people who abused the system with multiple homes they couldn't afford and couldn't flip fast enough and the rent would not pay the mortgage.

The experiment was a good one and hopefully we don't throw out the baby with the bathwater. The problem was that greed got the better of the loan originators and the flippers and everyone up the chain to the loan bundlers who pedaled these exotic mortgage instruments on wall st.

The problem now is trying to see how to fix the system. My sense is that although these exotic packages became toxic, it was the fact that there was no institutionalized market for determining the value as distressed as it may be that was the culprit in caiuse log-jams that froze up liquidity. So IMHO, the cure is to create a CDS or similar type Derivative Instrument Exchange specializing in trading these exotic products so the means of valuing them is institututionized and there is always a market regardless if the instruments are in or out of favor.

As a starter, although it's being called a government bailout, in essence what the government is doing in buying up these troubled assets to unclog the system is setting up an exchange mechanism which it is funding as the first buyer. If seen in this light, others perhaps will see that buying these distressed assets at ridiculously cheap prices will be a good investment and a few years down the road can return 100% or more.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/88820-towerstream-cost-structure-is-too-high?source=feed#comment-222824 222824
If the author wanted to do the analysis right, he should be taking a close look at the business model and the dynamics and risks of the business as well as the proverbial moat.]]> Mon, 04 Aug 2008 22:59:39 -0400
If the author wanted to do the analysis right, he should be taking a close look at the business model and the dynamics and risks of the business as well as the proverbial moat.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/82223-microvision-s-no-show-hands-the-pico-projector-market-to-ti?source=feed#comment-190696 190696
In this case the consumer will eventually decide the best product in terms of availability, quality and price. If TI's pico is first to market and is eventually eclipsed by MVIS' product, in terms of projection quality and focus wheel issues, the consumer will recognize that too. My sense is that picture quality is an acceptabe trade-off for mobility, compactness and cost.

What's not an acceptable trade-off is a cumbersome focus wheel. If we've learned anything from Apple, its that if a mobile device is going to be cool, it must be easy to operate. The focus wheel will be tolerable until MVIS' cooler pico is brought to market, then it crashes.

So thanks Liam for the good research and hopefully it'll bring the price of MVIS down so we can accululate more at a better price.]]> Mon, 23 Jun 2008 07:05:39 -0400
In this case the consumer will eventually decide the best product in terms of availability, quality and price. If TI's pico is first to market and is eventually eclipsed by MVIS' product, in terms of projection quality and focus wheel issues, the consumer will recognize that too. My sense is that picture quality is an acceptabe trade-off for mobility, compactness and cost.

What's not an acceptable trade-off is a cumbersome focus wheel. If we've learned anything from Apple, its that if a mobile device is going to be cool, it must be easy to operate. The focus wheel will be tolerable until MVIS' cooler pico is brought to market, then it crashes.

So thanks Liam for the good research and hopefully it'll bring the price of MVIS down so we can accululate more at a better price.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/81418-mid-year-picks-and-pans-from-barron-s-roundtable-part-iii?source=feed#comment-188180 188180
give it up...in 1982, oil was overpriced and the DJIA underpriced. Anyone who shorted oil and went long stocks in 1982 is a billionaire today. In 2008, the same is true, oil is overpriced and stocks are underpriced; short oil and go long stocks and in 25 years you'll be a billionaire]]> Thu, 19 Jun 2008 00:57:02 -0400
give it up...in 1982, oil was overpriced and the DJIA underpriced. Anyone who shorted oil and went long stocks in 1982 is a billionaire today. In 2008, the same is true, oil is overpriced and stocks are underpriced; short oil and go long stocks and in 25 years you'll be a billionaire]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/68545-retail-consumer-electronics-spending-no-signs-yet-of-a-bottom?source=feed#comment-126332 126332
In another bit of news which is verifiable, sales of computer game hardware and software continues to soar. Go figure.]]> Fri, 14 Mar 2008 06:27:47 -0400
In another bit of news which is verifiable, sales of computer game hardware and software continues to soar. Go figure.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/64433-beware-of-the-2008-sucker-rally?source=feed#comment-116440 116440
There's nothing better than drama that has a kernel of truth to it and that is what this story has going for it. The housing sector represents some 12% of the economy and its not going to come to a complete standstill. There's going to be significant reduction in GDP due to this cumulative mess, maybe a reduction of 25% of its sector so we're talking about an impact of 3%. In other words, its going to take down the US growth rate from 4-5% to 1-2%. But fear rules the day and that's when fortunes are made. ]]> Fri, 15 Feb 2008 08:42:50 -0500
There's nothing better than drama that has a kernel of truth to it and that is what this story has going for it. The housing sector represents some 12% of the economy and its not going to come to a complete standstill. There's going to be significant reduction in GDP due to this cumulative mess, maybe a reduction of 25% of its sector so we're talking about an impact of 3%. In other words, its going to take down the US growth rate from 4-5% to 1-2%. But fear rules the day and that's when fortunes are made. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/60669-friday-s-outlook-stick-a-fork-in-mr-market?source=feed#comment-111487 111487 Sat, 19 Jan 2008 07:26:38 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/59280-slow-playing-loopnet-for-now?source=feed#comment-109089 109089
The fact of the matter is that commercial real estate is different than residential RE in that the comm'l RE buyers and sellers are mostly professional who have a high level knowledge of what they're looking for and negotiating transactions, and the brokers are far less important in the process. An internet marketplace for comm'l RE is as natural a niche as Amazon in the book business. The above posters are probably luddites pooh poohing technology that they perceive to be threatening their job.

LOOP is stepping up and competing with CoStar, and if you compare their business models its like GOOG vs. AOL ten years ago.

Chris raises very good points and some will prove to be true like you can't maintain a ridiculous growth rate. But others are misleading like higher churn rate. When you raise prices, you're definitely going to lose more customers but if total revenues increase significantly and the churn rate increases marginally that's a trade-off any businessman will accept. The bottom line is hard numbers; much of the above data is out of context without bottom line hard numbers which we'll soon see. In the meantime, the stock at current levels is a good but risky buy mainly due to whether the economy goes into recession and not the residential fallout. Right now the odds are plus or minus 50% depending on the crystal ball reader.

Stay tuned and don't panic. Remember the greatest fortunes are won during times of crisis when people do irrational things enmasse.]]> Tue, 08 Jan 2008 22:28:57 -0500
The fact of the matter is that commercial real estate is different than residential RE in that the comm'l RE buyers and sellers are mostly professional who have a high level knowledge of what they're looking for and negotiating transactions, and the brokers are far less important in the process. An internet marketplace for comm'l RE is as natural a niche as Amazon in the book business. The above posters are probably luddites pooh poohing technology that they perceive to be threatening their job.

LOOP is stepping up and competing with CoStar, and if you compare their business models its like GOOG vs. AOL ten years ago.

Chris raises very good points and some will prove to be true like you can't maintain a ridiculous growth rate. But others are misleading like higher churn rate. When you raise prices, you're definitely going to lose more customers but if total revenues increase significantly and the churn rate increases marginally that's a trade-off any businessman will accept. The bottom line is hard numbers; much of the above data is out of context without bottom line hard numbers which we'll soon see. In the meantime, the stock at current levels is a good but risky buy mainly due to whether the economy goes into recession and not the residential fallout. Right now the odds are plus or minus 50% depending on the crystal ball reader.

Stay tuned and don't panic. Remember the greatest fortunes are won during times of crisis when people do irrational things enmasse.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/58143-bill-gross-u-s-already-in-recession?source=feed#comment-106509 106509 Sat, 22 Dec 2007 14:45:35 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/52712-bill-gross-expect-fed-funds-to-hit-3-5?source=feed#comment-101065 101065
The Fed may set target rates for various funds but its the global capital markets that set the real rates. In this scenario, the Fed's role really reverts to its classic role, the lender of last resort rather than setting proactive economic policy. In this capacity, it performed ideally in the recent credit crunch.

Now the credit markets are de-leveraging and unwinding in orderly fashion. Its sort of like when a football has been fumbled and the players on the field lose their poise and go crazy trying to recover the ball; and the end result is always the same: grown men throwing themselves on, over or under a pile of bodies hoping to save the day. Eventually, the referees after repeated attempts by blowing whistles, throwing flags and shoving these huge guys to one side or another finally gets everyone to stay put and slowly one by one bodies come away from the pile. Eventually the ref finds out who has the ball and signals who has possesion and the game gets back on track and everyone regains their poise. This is what's happening now with behemoths like Merrill and Citi emerging from the pile (they fumbled the ball and are coming up empty) indicating huge losses and of course heads rolling. There'll be a few more while the indicators (GDP growth, employment, inflation, etc.) will signal that the overall expansion is still on. Everyone will regain their poise, the doom and gloomers will go back in the closet and the capital markets will rise again and second leg of this expansion will drive the indices into new territory.

As the old Neill Young song goes "don't let the sound of the wheels drive you crazy".]]> Tue, 06 Nov 2007 00:04:37 -0500
The Fed may set target rates for various funds but its the global capital markets that set the real rates. In this scenario, the Fed's role really reverts to its classic role, the lender of last resort rather than setting proactive economic policy. In this capacity, it performed ideally in the recent credit crunch.

Now the credit markets are de-leveraging and unwinding in orderly fashion. Its sort of like when a football has been fumbled and the players on the field lose their poise and go crazy trying to recover the ball; and the end result is always the same: grown men throwing themselves on, over or under a pile of bodies hoping to save the day. Eventually, the referees after repeated attempts by blowing whistles, throwing flags and shoving these huge guys to one side or another finally gets everyone to stay put and slowly one by one bodies come away from the pile. Eventually the ref finds out who has the ball and signals who has possesion and the game gets back on track and everyone regains their poise. This is what's happening now with behemoths like Merrill and Citi emerging from the pile (they fumbled the ball and are coming up empty) indicating huge losses and of course heads rolling. There'll be a few more while the indicators (GDP growth, employment, inflation, etc.) will signal that the overall expansion is still on. Everyone will regain their poise, the doom and gloomers will go back in the closet and the capital markets will rise again and second leg of this expansion will drive the indices into new territory.

As the old Neill Young song goes "don't let the sound of the wheels drive you crazy".]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/51696-trident-plunges-on-competition-from-low-end-tv-makers?source=feed#comment-100112 100112
It challenges the imagination to contemplate a sequential 20% overall drop in revenue due to low-end product competition in the midst of favorable seasonal trade winds.]]> Sun, 28 Oct 2007 13:38:44 -0400
It challenges the imagination to contemplate a sequential 20% overall drop in revenue due to low-end product competition in the midst of favorable seasonal trade winds.]]>