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  • Yes, Apple At $203 A Share Is Possible  [View article]
    oh yes, if yo buy my apple shares at 210 now apple becomes a 1.2 T company in an instant and it only takes a few buks :)
    Oct 23, 2014. 03:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yes, Apple At $203 A Share Is Possible  [View article]
    "If we take into account the increase in EPS, plus the fact that Apple will continue to repurchase share at the same time, then between the two, Apple's market cap could actually double, even if Apple's stock does not reach $203 a share."

    I assume the author meant " the share price could actually double" not market cap (you do not increase market cap by shares buybacks, rather your lower it at same price level as the share count goes down)

    however this article is kinda weak as sure share buybacks can double the price of this share if e.g. the share count halves: this means apple forking out 300 B dollars at constant price or greater than that if the share price goes up with EPS growth as it would seem natural as they buy shares back... so really it seems that to do so apple has to generate about 400B of NET cash from operations and financing... seems like it will take some time to do so (many of us will be much closer to retirement!). Note it may also require unlocking cash held abroad somehow... as 400B just out of US cash will take a LOOONNNG time.
    Oct 23, 2014. 09:31 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Was Wrong About Apple  [View article]
    now what stops apple to sell lots of 5S at a lower margin while they sell 6 and discontinue 4s if so they wished? conceivably a lower priced 5S when 6 is out should create a monster demand for it every where apple can sell into at lower prices only.

    This is why I believe this article is a bit surprising and I wish the author did not really hold a large short and was just declaring himself short to bet on a fall of Apple which would position him as the man who had predicted the fall... otherwise, good luck, as the models the short is based on are flawed and do not take into account the expanding Apple ecosystem.

    would be nice to know the short the author is on as there are shorts and shorts... one could conceivably have a short term short at these prices to capitalize on any dip after such a long run...
    Jun 9, 2014. 06:51 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ladies And Gentlemen, May I Introduce To You The Financial Engineer Of The Year: Apple Inc.  [View article]
    just by the accelerate buyback of $14B at current prices Cook has given apple shareholders >1.5 B value.
    Apr 24, 2014. 10:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The 5 Reasons Apple's Earnings Report Was Huge  [View article]
    folks should also consider this: the guidance for next quarter points to an increase in sales of about 2.5 B vs. last year at a higher margin than last year. to put it into perspective it is like an increase equal to the whole Facebook sales in a quarter (GULP!) and with a higher profit margin and cash generation than FB :). People do not even realize the magnitude and meaning of this.
    Apr 24, 2014. 09:33 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Intrinsic Value And The Market's Irrational Valuation  [View article]
    well this spreadsheet misses the point that there is a substantial buyback power we need to factor in which makes the shares looking darn cheap.
    forget about the business in itself, which is brilliant... you have to also consider that they can withdraw about 5% of outstanding shares per year very easily. that is a twenty percent upside in 4 years at zero growth. also they have not yet got started to monetize the 700 m iOS devices base with adverts... if they got started you can add a quasi facebook market cap on top. or perhaps more since the audience of apple is the one with most spending power! it is just something these guys have to get rolling and really the tv entry and gaming entry will enable this pretty easily.
    Feb 1, 2014. 03:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Cheap iPhone Now Appears A Certainty  [View article]
    yes, you have the point right... they are like a central bank and with unlimited liquidity they may afford to wipe out the rest of the competition if they wanted and if this was legal :).
    Now they do not sell expensive phones as the price point is close to what you pay for high end Samsung or BlackBerry or what not.. but, unlike others, a single model can take a disproportionate size of the market and this makes the whole thing extremely profitable... they have to keep this profitable course...
    I am just back from Taiwan and over there iPhone rules. China will follow. Japan is an iPhone shop... just wait for other Asian countries to follow suit.
    Jan 29, 2014. 02:13 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Irrationality Or Pricing Perfection: Apple, Google And Amazon  [View article]
    but apple too is investing i think. no?
    Nov 1, 2013. 02:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Unfortunately It Was A Disappointing Earnings Report  [View article]
    I think it is fairly valued but this does not really avoid a selloff in the short term.
    Oct 29, 2013. 12:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Unfortunately It Was A Disappointing Earnings Report  [View article]
    give the guy a break... even with a 200 M mistake things change little in big scheme of things since this company turns over 180B.
    Oct 29, 2013. 12:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Unfortunately It Was A Disappointing Earnings Report  [View article]
    OK, to me really the mistake was going for Iphone 5C... it is so colorful that no one wants to go around with it and be spotted as the one having the "more affordable but still expensive Iphone"... basically from a marketing standpoint it seems to not have its consumer base in mind, which is more geeky/professional than colorful and aspirational than "also have but not quite" kind of people.

    if it was a more discrete metallic color I would have said it was a good move... wait a minute, that was the Iphone 5... so to me they could have just kept thislineup and done eually or just as well:

    4s, 5, 5S.

    the 5C seems to me an Iphone 5 made of plastic that folks are going to be less proud to have... and really pushes many to the 4S that would otherwise have happily bought a 5. so to me this will be punished with a stock sell off sooner than later. so while I love the name I am out for a while. (also as an option they could have retained the Iphone 5 alongside the Iphone 5c)
    Oct 29, 2013. 12:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Think Different Approach To Quarterly Math  [View article]
    this is really the key. it may just be simply impossible to produce at capacity that drives more than what the company guided, without risking to then have lots of (costly?) spare production capacity down the road... it is not an easy trade-off to pull. of course this excess may be paid by additional profits/cash in the quarter... I don't know how to model it!
    Oct 29, 2013. 08:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Think Different Approach To Quarterly Math  [View article]
    I tend to agree, but this may be at the root of the conservative call... it could be revenues will be capped by production, not demand. For now we have to think the guidance is correct. it is true that this being the most critical quarter of the year to have any kind of growth they need to really to beat the 58B and be at top end of margins... which to me is going to happen if the new top end models (which are also those likely to suffer supply issues) beat their revenue forecasts (I guess thought they are basing these on supply rather than demand! so it could be materially impossible).
    Oct 29, 2013. 08:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple beats estimates, issues solid guidance; shares lower  [View news story]
    mind you google earned much less and marked up a thirteen percent in the trading session that followed earnings report.
    Oct 28, 2013. 04:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple beats estimates, issues solid guidance; shares lower  [View news story]
    Appleā€™s cash, cash equivalents, and securities added up to almost $147 billion at the end of the September quarter

    it seems good to me.
    Oct 28, 2013. 04:57 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment