joof

28 Comments

    • Cramer: Dow Could Drop Another 14%, Oil's Going to $50 [view article]
      blaming the CRA...the last refuge of the Fox news RNC appartichik talking point spin machine. I guess everyone has to believe in something; and they believe they will have another

      Deregulation had its run and now its over. Welcome back to the stodgy net interest spread commercial banking business with simple, efficient highly standardized and commoditized financial products ; at least we can hope that we are not yet beyond the point of no return       Oct 06 06:37 PM
    • How to Spend $700B and Actually Solve the Problem [view article]
      blaming the CRA for this ... The lamest of Fox talking point rationalizations, I'm sure intended to deflect attention from the abject failures in monetary ploicy, fiscal policy and prudential regulation by the Ayn Rand skim the cream clique of the Republican party

      shame , shame, shame       Sep 26 06:00 PM
    • The Unfortunate State of the Current Housing Market [view article]
      There has been a clear volume rally over the spring and summer in several markets that had fallen hard....inland and coastal CA and to a lesser degree AZ. Inventory levels have fallen in many cases to below 5-6 months sales - or to a level that begins to indicate stabilization and even some potential for price increase

      Much of the rest of the US is months behind this cycial turn


      The questions - is this sales volume sustainable, will more inventory hit the market, or is this a sucker's rally?       Sep 24 05:37 PM
    • Psychology Of A Pricing Bottom [Housing Tracker] [view article]
      Its an asset that generates housing services . You can get the same services by renting them from others. You can compare amortization of the value in lieu of rent. You incur the mortgage liability to get the right to the services

      Not unlike PPE in manufacturing - which generates widgets whether you won or lease the fixed assets.       Sep 15 07:18 PM
    • A Look At Local Housing Data [Housing Tracker] [view article]
      2002-03 values adjusted for inflation (maybe up 3-4% year) - maybe the end game except in markets with bad employment performance Sep 02 07:43 PM
    • On Being Rich [view article]
      irondoor91

      Don't repeat the class warfare supply side mythology of declining total tax revenue with increased marginal rates. Econometric studies have consistently refuted the contention. The facts don't support what you want to believe .       Sep 02 07:39 PM
    • California Home Sales: 43% Year Over Year Increase! [view article]
      Supply has radically shrink in better SCA markets over the past 2 quarters - from 12-15 months to as low as 3-4 months . Multiple offers are happing on better properites. Inventory has dried up altogether in a number of beach close areas I travel through.

      Remember the homeownership rate in CA remained among the bottom 5 in the country during the boom, never exceeding about 58%. There is pent up demand, it can afford current prices and it is acting now

      Builders are beginning to shop for lots again

      If you want to live in Banning, Hemet or Moreno Valley - hang in there and wait another year or two.


      The permabears have beaten themseleves on the head for so long with their incessant repetition of belief that they have become numb to the facts. They are the same kind of intellects as the permabulls - unable to accept facts that indicate change in conditions       Aug 28 07:50 PM
    • Home Sales & True Inventory: No Good News [view article]
      The overall numbers are masking the reality of the truely local nature of real estate - in 05 and 06 the broad upside was overstated, and now in 08 the downside is overstated

      The volume of sales of distressed assets in exurbs is creating a bifurcated market -lots junk far way and less quality closer in . Junk is getting hammered while quality has declined somewhat. However, more junk has sold lately so overall medians have declined -- probably more than the price of quality has declined . No one with a good asset is selling unless they have to.

      In a number of better markets, or those that fell first, inventory is down to 4-7 months sales - or equilibrium or better. Multiple offers on better properties ( the few on sale amid the dross) are not unheard of in these markets. In contrast, the far flung exurbs, areas of high volume 05-07production, and later cycle declining markets are seeing bigger inventory overhang.

      All this is reestablishing a bigger value spread between quality and junk - real estate fundamentals come back in fashion



      This set of circumstances is forcing prices       Aug 26 06:41 PM
    • Is Housing Starting to Form a Bottom? NAHB HMI, Permit and Housing Starts Update [view article]
      There has never been a V shaped recovery in housing. A bottom forms in price, volumes pick up, inventory gets absorbed and then prices improve Aug 22 06:39 PM
    • Desire for Safety Has Made the Financial World Risky [view article]
      but they DID take too much risk, not only in the mis percived risk level of the investment, but in how they structured and levered the investments.

      On its face an ABS or CMO isnt a bad investement, and is susceptible to legitimate risk assemsent based on its cash flows and credit charactersics. Most analysis didn't understand the fundamental housing market cycle, and understated risk - which led to too low risk premia. THEN as revealed by the market perfromance making mis rated ABS into misrated and intrisically levered CDO, CDOsquared, CDO to the fouth power etc. and then carrying those instruments on a fully levered balance sheet multiplies the risk.

      They were wrong about risk levels and risk premia, and they paid for underpriced risk with excess leverage       Aug 21 06:23 PM
    • SoCal Real Estate - Sales Up, But Prices Are Still Down [view article]
      Volume is moving because price have come down.

      Inventory is almost at stabilized levels ( 6-8 month supply) in many of the better sub markets. You hear anecdotal stories that the (few) good assets that hit the market ( i.e. not batted foreclosures in bad areas) have gotten multiple offers . Builders are beginning to shop for losts


      Putting it another way if you take 2003 nominal prices and deflate them, or if you factor in income growth since 2003 against current nominal prices, you get ratios within the range of historical experience for S CA

      Fence sitters may get shut out       Aug 19 05:40 PM
    • SoCal Real Estate - Sales Up, But Prices Are Still Down [view article]
      Volume is moving because price have come down.INventeory is almast at stabilzed levels ( 6-8 month supply) in many of the better sub markets. You hear anecodoatal stories that the (few) good assets that hit the marekt ( i.e. not batted foreclosures in bad areas) have gotten multiple offers


      Putting it anther way if you take 2003 nominal prices and deflate them, or if you factor in income growth since 2003 aganins current prices, you get ratios within the range of historical

      Fence sitters may get shut out       Aug 19 05:38 PM
    • Stock vs. Bond Valuations [view article]
      you should add a colored band for "periods of terror" ie credit crunches -- when people flee to treasuries and the normal spread behavior does not apply

      For example....now       Jul 29 07:29 PM
    • Housing: No Bottom Yet in Sight [view article]
      The legitmate portion (93 to 1999/ 2001, take your pick) of the last housing recovery was driven by both normal cyclical factors and the effects of the 90s tech and manufacturing booms.
      The latter drove eimployment and incomes. Plus , with the US fiscal policy during the 90s leading to lower interest rates financing stayed cheap.

      We know what happened next - the Fed inflated the end of the boom into the illegitmate portion of the cycle (2001-04) through very lax regulatory and monetary policy.

      Hard to imagine a repeat of the new industry fundamental economic performamance with the benign interest rate and fiscal policy environment of the 90s. No one is going to repeat the massive 90s PC roll out followed by the internet boom.

      So something else will have to drive recovery- if there is one       Jul 28 01:38 PM
    • Now's the Time to Buy Something [view article]
      the writer of theis "piece" show go back on his meds and stay off the Internet

      Top down= schizophrenic delusions       Jul 25 04:40 PM
Loading...
Symbols:
Authors:
Quick Links:
Contribute an Article Become a Seeking Alpha Contributor

Transcripts

More Transcripts»