joof

How Bloomberg Fabricates U.S. Housing Numbers

Amazing but true

NO One on this thread actually read the article and understands the numbers. That actual number of excess units- housing vacant above trend- is a fraction of this large number

Three items make up the 19 MM - vacant for sale, vacant for rent ( including apartments) and seasonal (second homes). About 1/3 of the total comes from each.

Seasonal homes by definition aren't excess - they don't compete for primary occupancy in most markets. In this kind of world many will try to dump the beach house or Vail condo, and prices for second homes are very soft- just like in any recession. But that really doesn't directly affect most primary housing markets.

On for rent (apartments) nation vacancy is about 7.3% , or about 2% over what owners would like. Say that means 1 MM excess housing units.

On for sale most analysts would say that that the current vacancy rate is about 2x the norm - say another 1 MM excess units

19 MM really means 2 MM excess - about 1/2 year of gross demand. A problem - true - but not a cataclysm

Property Values Set to Fall 43% from Current Depressed Levels

except that prices are actually rising now


Dohhh!

U.S. Housing: Round Trip to Pre-Bubble Prices Underway

or in some markets 2003 nominal ( not real) values. In other words we are there in much of the US

rent/value, income/value, supply/demand (measured as listed months supply ) also say the same thing. Almost no newly contructed supply is entering the market, esp as a ratio of long term demographic demand .

However, more income compression due to labor market conditions and the dribble out of the gradual resolution of defaults may push values down further, or at least limit appreciation from these levels

Pay No Attention to the 140 P/E Behind the Curtain

The trailng 4q PE leading to 140 is a red herring. The financial sector writedowns in 2008 unwound or reserved the excess profits in the financial sector from 2003-07 related to the mortgage boom/bubble. Using that number excessivley amplifies the effects of one period catch up for years of over reported profits ( or underreserved losses)

More relevant - trailng 10 year PE or forward to normaized earnings PE - assuming anyone has clue about the latter

Low Home Ownership Rate Hurting the Economy

The long term demand for new housing is estimated at about 1.5-1.7 MM units a year based on household formation and obsolescence. That is both for sale and rental

Look at the Harvard Center for Housing website and their annual analysis.

For several years d uring the boom production was well above this number. At least 1-2 years supply was built ahead of fundamental demand.

Production has been below the long term level since late 2006- reversion to the mean. At some point there will be production back to or above the mean - or people will be underhoused.

More Good Housing News

Gerbils or hamsters?
Spell chekk plees

One Good Thing About Estimated Current Housing Values: Reality

Libertarians live in Fantasyland ... A world of perfect markets, rational actors, perfect information, trust , honesty, transparency, stable currencies, instant communications and where agents act literally for the benefit of their principals ( not for a moment incorporating the agent's own self interest). There are no monoplies, conspiracies, public goods or externalities in the magical domain

I want to move there soon. Where is it?

Definitely not bubbleland America circa 2003-07

It's Getting Harder to Be a Housing Bear

Prices in many markets are back to 2001-03 nominal values - or before that frame on a real basis. In other words prices have reverted to where they should have been based on long term history ( usually calced as CPI + 1 or 2%)

In many markets you can carry a house for less than rent - the first glimpse of that relationship in many years.

Inventories are at or below stabilized levels in many key markets. The good stuff has been sucked off, even much of the junk has sold through. Bidding wars have become the norm in good starter or first move up markets in many areas

All this has been true since spring. The CS data is finally showing what the street level experience has been for awhile

No one knows if and when the asserted "20 Million spare homes" hit the market ( an obviously laughably bogus stat; it does not even come close to passing a smell test) . But for now good luck if you want to buy a quality starter home - you have lots of competition

Rumors Solidify Around Apple Tablet

is his HD or flash memory?

Homebuilders Slam on the Brakes

Builders have reacted to the depleted inventory ( both new and existing) in more attractive markets by bidding up finished lots in good locations. One of the consequences - the local and regional private builders will continue to lose share over the repair cycle

BTW that's' exactly what happened during the 90s recovery

If Insiders Are Unloading, Why Is BIDZ.Com Buying Back Shares?

It has been known to happen that stock buybacks are timed to support the scheduled insider selling. Can't really prove it in many cases...but the insiders can sell as the company is executing buybacks that support stock price

Short Housing for the Long Term

I know 2 well established veteran and competent CA real estate agents ( not newbies that got their licenses at the tail end of the boom) that had their best years ever last year, and are doing even better this year. They are making up in volume what they lost in price

Data (not self serving anecdote) say that in better CA real estate markets resale supply is less than 5 months, in some cases as low as 3 months, sales. This is different than FL and NV and AZ. Multiple bids on well located entry or first move up houses have become the norm. Many sell for better than list. Affordablity is at a generational high

Check Data quick if you don't believe me

More foreclosure are hitting the market, but sales rates thus far this year are keeping up. After the summer.....who knows?

Faux Demand for Foreclosed Homes

yes it is difficult to figure out...because you are wrong

In CA taxes are about 1.1-1.3% of purchase price - or about 200-400/month on a median house. Upkeep and insurance could be generously 500/month. So if you rent at 1900-2500 and pay out under a 1000, how do you lose money?






On May 26 12:55 PM Fred W wrote:

> I will make this easy to grasp, since you are obviously are "slow".
>
> Annual taxes and "upkeep" cost more than the annual rent...was that
> really difficult to figure out?

Amazon Insider Sales: Does Jeff Bezos Know Something?

He has been there for years. Options expire , usually at 10 years from grant . He may have had to exercise to avoid losing the options .

What are the grant dates of the options he exercised? If you can answer that you may have a point.

Housing: Objects in the Mirror May Appear Closer than They Are

National single family starts are actually well below 400k

In S California there is less than 3 months listed supply at lower price levels in better markets. Multiple offers and aggressive bid ups over list have become the norm for better properties. Sales rate have been sufficient to counter balance new foreclosure inventory. It costs less to own than to rent in many cases. Since those are the facts, why hasn't the so called shadow inventory flooded the market ?

The upper end end is a very different story